Quite the card this week, with multiple road favorites, some teams coming off a bye and us maybe starting to identify what the identity of certain teams are through a month of the season. I managed to piece together another winning week last week, continuing to put my Week 2 debacle in the rearview mirror by going 3-2. It should have been better, but the Cowboys egged in the red zone and I switched from the Bears to the Giants in my actual contest picks. Maybe I should stop switching those picks, because the Bears looked pretty, pretty good. Dangit.
I'm probably going to replace the dog of the week of the year with someone below depending on injury reports, but I like all six of these games. I'm also fond of the Chargers (-4.5) this week but I'm going to be an adult and stop taking them. It's like punching out of the rough instead of trying to thread a seven iron through a pair of trees to gain an extra 60 yards on a par five. Be a grown up and do grown up things (like not betting on the Chargers, who haven't covered at home in October as a favorite in the last three years).
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Panthers (-7) vs. Giants
I told myself I wouldn't take any long favorites after I got burnt during a nightmare Week 2, but here we are with me laying a pile of points with the Panthers. There are some 6.5 lines out there, and I would suggest grabbing them. There is just too much here not to like the Panthers, starting with Ron Rivera's record coming off his bye the last three seasons. Carolina is 3-0 off their bye the last three years, in addition to being 3-0 against the spread, winning those games by an average margin of 7.3 points per game. In home games as a favorite of a touchdown or more, the Panthers are 5-2 since 2015. There might be a perception the Giants are a good team stopping the run based on reputation, but New York is the 29th ranked team against the run by DVOA (and 28th overall on defense). Christian McCaffrey is having a breakout season as a runner between the tackles, averaging 5.9 yards per rushing attempt after piling up 184 rushing yards against the Bengals in Carolina's Week 3 win. Give me the Panthers in a blowout victory.
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Lions (+1) vs. Packers
This should be a game where a lot of the action is on the Packers, and I am perfectly fine fading the public in this spot. Aaron Rodgers as a one-point favorite -- or even just a pick 'em as it is now! -- against a team he's dominated in his career? No brainer right? Rodgers is 13-3 in his career against the Lions, although he's "only" 2-1 in Detroit since 2013. Because of injury, Rodgers played at Ford Field just three of the last five years. He has not played anywhere ever with the group of receivers he's likely to deal with come Sunday: Davante Adams (calf), Geronimo Allison (concussion) and Randall Cobb (hamstring) all missed practice on Thursday and are very much questionable to play. Rodgers might be throwing to Equanimeous St. Brown, J'Mon Moore and Marquez Valdes-Scantling, all three names I had to look up in order to spell correctly, both because most people haven't heard of them and those names are really difficult to spell. Jimmy Graham (knee) was limited in practice as well. I think the Packers can still score points against a questionable Lions defense, but I like Detroit to pile up yardage and scores through the air against a banged up (Jaire Alexander, Kevin King both battling groin injuries, plus some safety depth injuries) and not-all-that-great Packers secondary. I love Matthew Stafford in DFS and I love the Lions to win this game.
Dolphins (+6.5) at Bengals
Cincinnati has been a very good and very surprising team this year. The Bengals rolled into Atlanta and went toe-to-toe with the Falcons, with Andy Dalton taking down Matt Ryan in a fun shootout where the over/under was nearly covered before halftime. I don't like fading Dalton at home in a 1 p.m. game -- it's his comfort zone -- but the Bengals should not have an identical spread against the Dolphins that the Patriots had. Miami is coming off a humiliating defeat in New England and the Bengals are flying high off a road win that drew lots of eyeballs because of the score. In other words, people are going to back Cincinnati based on recency bias. The numbers confirm it, with 63 percent of the bets going to the Bengals, versus 53 percent of the money on Miami, per the Action Network. That's an ideal skew for fading a home team with a big spread and I don't think this matchup is particularly great for Cincinnati either. Joe Mixon might come back, which seems silly. But A.J. Green is going to get a face full of Xavien Howard; he'll get his, but I don't think he has a huge day. That means it falls on Tyler Boyd, who is legitimately emerging as a standout this season. Tyler Eifert is out for the year and Giovani Bernard is banged up. I think Miami keeps it close and maybe wins.
Cardinals (+4) vs. 49ers
The Arizona Cardinals are not a good football team. We get that: their record is terrible and they have looked like a poorly coached squad under Steve Wilks in their first year. But they have a very good defense and that defense gets to play against C.J. Beathard this week, who is getting a LOT of love here by virtue of being a four-point favorite at home. Spoiler alert: the Niners aren't good either. They rank 28th in offensive DVOA, whereas the Cardinals rank 31st. The difference is actually pretty large, but the 49ers have multiple games from Jimmy Garoppolo; the Cardinals have multiple games from Sam Bradford. Josh Rosen looked sharp in his first start and this is a plus matchup for him, with the 49ers ranking 23rd against the pass in DVOA. Want a mind-blowing trend? The 49ers haven't covered as a home favorite since Dec. 1, 2013. I believe in Kyle Shanahan but making the Niners a big favorite against anyone is a mistake and the Cards will be hungry for a win. A David Johnson breakout game could be on the horizon.
Texans (-3) vs. Cowboys
This comes down to one simple theory I have about the 2018 season: the Cowboys aren't good. It's weird, because Dallas is better than I expected, but only because the defense is starting to come together and play really well. Their defensive line is a concerning matchup against the Texans offensive line, which might be the worst in football. I trust Deshaun Watson and DeAndre Hopkins enough to produce down the field, and that's not even discussing Will Fuller as well. This Texans team is starting to play good offense despite the offensive line. Defensively they're just not getting enough credit: Houston locked down the Colts before caving in late last week and the Texans are a bad matchup for the Cowboys. J.J. Watt is playing like peak J.J. Watt right now and Houston is the No. 2 team by DVOA against the run. If you can slow down the run, you can slow down the Cowboys and force Dak Prescott to make plays in the passing game. Texans win big at home in primetime with a monster performance from Watt.
BONUS UNDERDOG OF THE WEEK OF THE YEAR
Redskins (+6.5) at Saints
Love MY Redskins in this spot. They're coming off a bye, and although Jay Gruden has not been great off a bye in his career, it means a lot of rest for Adrian Peterson. Hanging your hat on an aging running back is dangerous, sure, but have you seen the vengeance he's brought to games against teams he thinks slighted him? He destroyed the Cardinals (released him last offseason), blasted through the Packers (were interested in him, hates them because he loves the Vikings) and now he gets the Saints, who traded him in the middle of last year before taking off. It's a primetime game and the Saints defense has not looked good, even if they have the No. 1 ranked rush defense by DVOA. The secondary isn't producing turnovers or locking people down and I can see Alex Smith having a strong game in this spot. I don't know if the Redskins will slow down Drew Brees and Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara, but I think they can hang in this game. I like the over 53 and the Redskins to keep it close at the end. If you can get a full touchdown jump all over it, it just happens to be +6.5 in the SuperContest.
Best Bets Last Week: 3-2
Overall ATS Last Week: 8-6-1
Best Bets Season: 11-10
Overall ATS Season: 32-30-2
