Welcome to the Tuesday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!
After watching both playoff games yesterday, I can officially say that Super Wild Card Weekend wasn't super, or wild, for that matter. There were six games during the wild-card round and five of them ended up being decided by 14 or more points. Not only that, but after the Browns-Texans game on Saturday, there wasn't a SINGLE LEAD CHANGE in any of the final five games of the weekend.
Although we got a bunch of blowouts, the games were still somehow entertaining. I mean, the Eagles have been the best train wreck on television for nearly seven weeks now. We'll be covering their loss in today's newsletter, plus we'll be breaking down Buffalo's win and we'll be playing some coaching matchmaker. Also, I'll be making my divisional round picks, which I know you're dying to see.
As always, here's your daily reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here. All right, let's get to the rundown.
1. Today's show: Biggest questions after Monday's wild-card games
If I fall asleep while writing today's newsletter, it's because for the third straight night, I stayed up to record a podcast with Will Brinson and Ryan Wilson. We put out a podcast after each day of the wild-card round and Monday night was no different.
The three of us touched on our biggest takeaways from the two games that were played on Monday. Here are a few of the biggest questions that we tried to answer:
- Will Nick Sirianni get fired? The Eagles, who went into December with a 10-1 record, just finished one of the worst collapses in NFL history by losing to the Buccaneers. Sirianni didn't have any answers and he was never able to right the ship. Doug Pederson got fired in Philly just three years after winning the Super Bowl, so we know that Eagles owner Jeffrey Lurie will fire someone if he feels that a change needs to be made. Brinson, Wilson and I were all on the same page here: We think the Eagles decide to move on from Sirianni.
- Will Mike Tomlin be coaching the Steelers in 2024? Tomlin's future is currently up in the air and he didn't help things on Monday by WALKING out of a press conference after he got asked about his contract, which only has one year left on it. Wilson is our resident Steelers expert/homer and he seems pretty confident that Tomlin will be returning to the team in 2024.
- Do the Buccaneers have enough magic to beat the Lions? The Buccaneers had a huge win on Monday, but it felt like a big reason they played so well is because they were playing the worst team in football (The Eagles might not technically be the worst team in football, but they played like it over the past seven weeks). The Bucs had a lot of offensive success against Philadelphia, but it's hard to see that carrying over to the divisional round game against the Lions.
If you want to listen to today's show, be sure to click here. You can also watch today's episode on YouTube by clicking here.
2. Breaking down Monday's playoff games
Both games turned into a blowout on Monday night, which capped off a weekend of blowouts. Of the six games, five of them were decided by 14 points or more. Despite getting two ugly games, we're still going to take a brief look at what happened in each game:
- (2) Bills 31-17 over (7) Steelers. If the Bills are going to make a deep playoff run, they're going to need Josh Allen to be great and he answered the call in this game. The Bills quarterback totaled 277 yards and four touchdowns in the win. The impressive performance made Allen the first player in NFL history to record at least three passing touchdowns, one rushing TD and 70 yards rushing in a playoff game. Allen's biggest play came on a wild 52-yard TD run that is currently the second-longest scoring run by any QB ever in the playoffs (You can see the play here). The Steelers might have been able to keep this game close or even pull off the upset if they didn't shoot themselves in the foot seven different times. In the first half alone, the Steelers turned the ball over twice and the Bills ended up getting 14 points off those turnovers. The most brutal one game from Mason Rudolph, who threw an interception after the Steelers had driven down to Buffalo's 4-yard line.
- (4) Buccaneers 32-9 over (5) Eagles. The Eagles went into this game with one of the worst passing defenses in football and Baker Mayfield took advantage of that by coming through with one of his biggest games of the season. The Buccaneers QB threw for 337 yards and three touchdowns and he now joins Tom Brady as the only quarterbacks in Bucs history to throw for at least 300 yards in a playoff game. The impressive thing about Mayfield's performance is that he was able to spread the ball around: The Buccaneers had FIVE different receivers who finished with at least 45 yards. This was a one-score game until late in the third quarter when Jalen Hurts got called for intentional grounding in the end zone, which resulted in a safety. Those two points gave Tampa Bay an 18-9 lead and it felt like it was over at that point, because the Eagles offense couldn't do anything. The Eagles went a combined 0-for-11 on third and fourth down, becoming the first team since 1991 to convert zero times on third or fourth down in a playoff game.
With the Bucs and Bills both winning, that means the divisional round schedule is now set:
Saturday, Jan. 20
Sunday, Jan. 21
- Buccaneers at Lions, 3 p.m. ET (NBC)
- Chiefs at Bills, 6:30 p.m. ET (CBS)
For a closer look at these four games, be sure to check out our divisional round look-ahead here.
3. Jason Kelce retires: Eagles All-Pro decides to call it quits
After an ugly collapse to end the year, the Eagles are going to have a lot to figure out this offseason and one of those things is going to be how they can replace Jason Kelce. Following Philadelphia's loss to Tampa Bay on Monday night, the Eagles All-Pro center told his teammates that he's planning to retire, according to ESPN.
Here's what you need to know about Kelce's 13-year career:
- He was a six-time All-Pro. Kelce was the best at his position for nearly his entire career. Kelce was voted a first-team All-Pro a total of six times and all six of those came in the past seven seasons. He's the fifth center in NFL history with at least six All-Pro selections and the other four (Jim Otto, Bulldog Turner, Dermotti Dawson, Jim Ringo) are in the Hall of Fame, which bodes well for him.
- Kelce played in two Super Bowls. Kelce will be retiring with one Super Bowl ring, which he earned after the Eagles beat the Patriots in Super Bowl LII. He had a chance to get a second ring, but the Eagles ended up losing to the Chiefs, 38-35, in the Super Bowl last year. Although he was on the losing end, he did get to face his brother, Travis, in the NFL's biggest game, which is a memory that will likely stick with him for the rest of his life. He also gave us all a memory that will likely stick with us forever: His amazing speech at the Eagles Super Bowl parade, which you can see here.
- Eagles iron man. As a sixth-round pick, Kelce wasn't expected to be a superstar, but that's exactly what happened. After the Eagles selected him with the 191st pick in the 2011 NFL Draft, Kelce immediately went on to become the starting center. During his 13 seasons, he only missed a total of 18 games and 14 of those came during his second-year in the league. Kelce ended up playing in 193 regular-season games, which is the most by any offensive player in Eagles history.
For our full story on Kelce's retirement, be sure to head here.
4. Breech's divisional round picks: Texans turn playoffs upside down
It's Tuesday, and that can only mean one thing: It's time for my weekly picks.
During the wild-card round, I didn't choke as bad as the Cowboys, but I did go only 3-3 with my picks, which is unacceptable. I can't believe I picked the Cowboys to beat the Packers. We have 30 years of history that said the Cowboys were going to choke and I ignored that history, which is why I got that pick wrong.
For the divisional round, I'm predicting one huge upset and three favorites to win.
With that in mind, here are my picks:
- (4) Texans 23-20 over (1) Ravens. Since Lamar Jackson took over as the starting QB in Baltimore, the Ravens have struggled in the playoffs. In his four starts, the Ravens have gone 1-3 and they've averaged just 13 points per game. If there's going to be a HUGE upset this weekend, this feels like the game where it will happen. LINE: Ravens (-9.5)
- (1) 49ers 34-27 over (7) Packers. Kyle Shanahan and Matt LaFleur spent a total of six seasons together at two different stops (Washington from 2010-13 and Atlanta in 2015 and 2016) so they're very familiar with each other. Each guy knows what the other guy is going to do on offense, and when that's case, I think that favors the team with more talent. In this case, that would be the 49ers. The Packers have struggled to stop the run this year and that's not a weakness you want to have when you're about to face the NFL's rushing leader (Christian McCaffrey). LINE: 49ers (-10)
- (3) Lions 31-17 over (4) Buccaneers. If I had to rank all of my picks this week based on confidence, this would easily be No. 1. The Lions are playing on another level right now and they get to face a Buccaneers team that gave up the fourth-most passing yards in the NFL this year. Jared Goff might throw for 400 yards. LINE: Lions (-6)
- (2) Bills 27-24 over (3) Chiefs. For the third time in five seasons, these two teams are meeting in the playoffs. Although the Bills have been able to beat the Chiefs in the regular season (they've won three straight), they've gone 0-2 in the playoffs against Kansas City. This feels like the year where they finally get the monkey off their back, especially because they get to play in Buffalo after playing their last FIVE games against the Chiefs in Kansas City (that includes both regular-season and playoff games). This will also mark the first road playoff game of Patrick Mahomes' career, which should add another level of drama. LINE: Bills (-2.5)
To get my full take on each game, be sure to check out my divisional round picks by clicking here.
5. Coaching matchmaker: Every hiring move that makes sense
With so many big coaching interviews going down over the past 24 hours, including the Falcons interview with Bill Belichick, we thought now would be a good time to play a game of coaching matchmaker. The rules here are simple: We had Tyler Sullivan find the best candidate to fill each open job.
Here's what Tyler came up with:
- Falcons: Bill Belichick. "After a six-year playoff drought and three straight 7-10 campaigns, owner Arthur Blank could be looking to make a big swing, and what bigger swing would there be other than bringing in the greatest coach of all time? For Belichick, he'd join a team that already has talented skill-position players on the roster (something he struggled to find in New England), and would be able to coach up a defense that ranked 11th in total yards allowed in 2023. Given that the NFC South is one of the least competitive divisions in the league, it'd be an attractive landing spot for Belichick, who is looking to pile up wins in pursuit of surpassing Don Shula for the record."
- Chargers: Mike Vrabel. "Under former head coach Brandon Staley, puzzling in-game decisions plagued the franchise, which is something Vrabel could fix overnight upon arrival. He was able to maximize Ryan Tannehill during his time with the Titans and pairing himself up with Justin Herbert could prove to be a pairing that gives the Chiefs a run for their money in the AFC West."
- Seahawks: Dan Quinn. "Quinn coached in Seattle from 2013-2014 and helped the franchise win Super Bowl XLVIII while leading the "Legion of Boom" defense before his first stint at becoming a head coach with the Atlanta Falcons."
If you want to see how Sullivan filled the other open jobs, includiing where he had Jim Harbaugh land, be sure to check out his full story here.
6. Extra points: Bill Belichick interviews with Falcons
It's been a busy 24 hours in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you.
- Falcons hold interview with Bill Belichick. There had been some speculation that the Falcons were interested in Belichick and that speculation turned out to be true. The Falcons revealed on Monday that they've completed an interview with Belichick. We'll be tracking every interview and rumor involving the former Patriots coach in our Belichick tracker, which you can check out here.
- Seahawks set to interview Dan Quinn. The Seahawks have been pretty quiet on the coaching front over the past few days, but it looks like they'll be getting down to business this week. For one, the team is set to interview Cowboys defensive coordinator Dan Quinn, who held the same job in Seattle in 2013 and 2014. He's one of six candidates the Seahawks plan on interviewing this week. You can check out the full list in our coaching tracker here.
- Mike Tomlin walks out of postgame interview. The Steelers coach walked out of his press conference after he got asked about his contract, which only has one year remaining (You can see the extremely awkward clip here). There's been some speculation that Tomlin won't be returning to Pittsburgh in 2024 and this won't do anything to quiet that speculation.
- Steelers have QB questions. One of the biggest questions the Steelers will have to answer this offseason is what they should do at QB. We decided to take a look at their best options and you can see what we came up with here. Signing a veteran to start over Kenny Pickett could end up being their best option.
- Caleb Williams enters NFL Draft. The USC quarterback added some drama to the draft process by waiting until the LAST day possible before declaring on Monday. All three of our NFL Draft writers have Williams being selected with the first overall pick. You can check out their full mock drafts here.
