The Week 9 NFL odds board features a pair of big favorites. The Chiefs (-7.5) hold the edge on the road against the Browns, while the Bears (-10) are double-digit favorites against Buffalo as the Bills turn back to Nathan Peterman at quarterback. But those games are the exception, not the rule in Week 9 because every other game has a spread of 6.5 points or fewer, including six games expected to come down to a field goal or less. That includes the critical showdown between the Rams (-2) and Saints, a game in which both teams have been favored at various points in the week. With so many tight matchups to consider and NFL odds and lines moving quickly, be sure to check out the top Week 9 NFL picks and predictions from SportsLine's proven computer model before laying any of your own.
SportsLine's proprietary computer model went 176-80 last season and beat over 95 percent of CBS Sports Office Pool players in 2016 and '17. It also performed better than 98 percent of experts tracked by NFLPickWatch.com during that span. Additionally, it went 48-34 on A-rated picks against the spread last season, and $100 bettors who have followed it the past two seasons are up nearly $4,000.
The model was a blistering 13-1 straight-up last week. Additionally, it was a strong 6-0 on all top-rated picks in Week 8, including nailing the Redskins (-1) over the Giants and the Seahawks (+3) over the Lions. That perfect mark in Week 8 improved its overall run to 68-43 on all top-rated NFL picks. Anybody who has been following those picks is way, way up.
Now it has examined the NFL odds and spreads, simulated every snap 10,000 times, and its Week 9 NFL picks are in.
One of the top Week 9 NFL picks the model loves: the Chiefs (-8) cover on the road against the Browns in Cleveland's first game under interim head coach Gregg Williams.
Cleveland moved on from Hue Jackson this week after a disastrous 3-36-1 run. An interim coach can sometimes galvanize a team, and the initial line has dropped half-a-point as bettors are considering that possibility. But the model sees a talent disparity that's too big for Cleveland to cover.
Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes goes off for over 300 yards of total offense against Cleveland's 28th-ranked defense as Kansas City covers in almost 60 percent of simulations. The model is also calling for 55 total points, giving plenty of value to the Over (52).
Another pick the model loves: the Lions (+4.5) cover on the road at Minnesota in a game that has seen the line come down two full points.
The Lions were sellers at the trade deadline, sending receiver Golden Tate to the Eagles. But with Marvin Jones and Kenny Golladay still available for quarterback Matthew Stafford, the offense shouldn't take too much of a step back. Detroit is 5-2 against the spread overall this season and 3-0 on the road.
SportsLine's model is expecting that trend to continue on Sunday as Golladay and Jones combine for 150 yards receiving, while Kerryon Johnson and LeGarrette Blount team up for close to 100 yards on the ground. Moreover, Vikings wide receiver Stefon Diggs (ribs) and defensive back Xavier Rhodes (foot) are both questionable, potentially denting Minnesota on both sides of the ball.
The Lions cover in almost 55 percent of simulations, while the model also has a slight lean to the Over (48.5).
The model also has a strong selection for the huge Patriots vs. Packers showdown on Sunday Night Football, and is calling for a Super Bowl contender to get knocked off in a game that will shake up the NFL playoff picture forever.
What NFL picks can you make with confidence in Week 9? And what Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Check out the latest NFL odds below and then visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that has beaten 98 percent of experts over the past two years.
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-4.5, 48.5)
Kansas City Chiefs at Cleveland Browns (+7.5, 52)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-2, 47)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (-6.5, 55)
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-3, 42)
Atlanta Falcons at Washington Redskins (-2, 47.5)
Chicago Bears at Buffalo Bills (+10, 37.5)
Houston Texans at Denver Broncos (-1, 46)
Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks (PK, 48)
Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints (+2, 57.5)
Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots (-5.5, 56.5)
Tennessee Titans at Dallas Cowboys (-4, 40.5)