Our top teaser play of the week has hit a bit of a skid over the last few weeks, with the Colts failing to keep their game against the Ravens within 8.5 points last week. Not a whole lot to be done about fumble-return TDs. Hopefully you skipped that one and paired our No. 1 option (Texans) with any of the four options behind the Colts, as all hit, while the three underdogs in the bunch won outright.
We're looking to get back into the win column and improve our 5-3-1 Teaser of the Week record by starting with a massive Sunday night mismatch. The Ravens defense is one of the best in the league by all accounts, while the Patriots defense just surrendered 27 points to Joe Flacco and the Jets. Let's tease Baltimore down to -1 and expect them to take care of business in this matchup.
I've done the legwork of going through all the lines as of Tuesday night and identifying the best teasing opportunities. Below, I've ranked all the sides I think are in play for teasers this week, considering only the standard six-point teasers. You can take the top two options and put them together for my Teaser of the Week, or you can be bold and try and hit a bigger payout.
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Ranking teaser options
1. Ravens -1 at Patriots
The Patriots brought some "maybe Bill Belichick can make it work" mystique into the season, but that's all gone after the run they've had since the start of October, with Monday night's nail-biter win over the Jets marking their first victory in that span. The Ravens ran for 210 yards against a better New England defense last year, and they should be able to run their way to a win on Sunday.
2. Seahawks +7.5 at Rams
It took four Russell Wilson turnovers for Seattle to lose by 10 points against the Bills last week, so we have to expect he's able to keep this one closer, even though the Rams sport one of the top defenses in the league. Will that be enough to slow down the top scoring offense in the league? We expect the Rams to score points against a bad Seattle defense, but we can trust Wilson to bounce back with a performance that covers this teased line as well.
3. Colts +8 at Titans
Despite getting burned by the Colts last week, I would have no problem throwing them into teasers this week and likely would put them above the Seahawks if you're reading this early enough to tease the Thursday night game. The Titans benefitted from a scoop-six last week but their offense did not play well at all aside from A.J. Brown doing a few A.J. Brown things. The Colts are the better team and should do enough offensively in a much easier matchup to make this tease an easy cover.
4. Bears +8.5 at Vikings
The Bears were on the other side of that Titans scoop-six, but even though their offense was atrocious in that game -- they went 2 of 15 on third down against what had been the worst third-down defense in 30 years -- their defense is good enough to give this Vikings offense a lot of issues. Expect a low-scoring game, one that favors the side getting more than a TD on the teaser.
5. Panthers +10.5 vs. Buccaneers
Even though we should expect the Bucs to come out mad after getting embarrassed by the Saints on Sunday night, the Panthers are just too good to expect the same 14-point loss that happened in Tampa in Week 2, one that could largely be chalked up an uncharacteristic four turnovers from a Carolina offense that has only turned it over nine times all year. That was the only game they lost by more than one score all year.
6. Chargers +8.5 at Dolphins
There's some reason to worry about the Chargers coming off another heartbreaking loss and traveling cross-country to face a Dolphins team on the rise. But they haven't lost by more than seven points all year, so it's reasonable to expect this one to remain within one score as well.
7. Bills +8 at Cardinals
I wanted to love the Bills more, but coming off a huge win against a good team, this could easily be a sleepy spot for Josh Allen. I also don't know how the defense contains Kyler Murray. But Buffalo is a good enough team that they shouldn't be getting blown out at this point, so they'll climb into the bottom of our ranked teams this week.
Lines to avoid teasing
Broncos at Raiders (-5)
Are the Broncos a safe teaser play? They've been down big in the third quarter in each of their last two games despite rallying in both, and though you figure the Raiders are the exact type of team you can throw all over if you need to backdoor a cover, I just don't trust Denver enough to bump them into the top section here.
49ers at Saints (-9.5)
At first glance this seems like a good place to tease down the Saints, but I wouldn't do it unless you can get them under three. With the 49ers coming off a mini-bye and desperate to save their season, we could get a max-effort game in this spot, one that would be helped if they can return several key players from the reserve/COVID-19 list.
Eagles (-3.5) at Giants
A spot where teasing the Giants makes some sense, but I'm not ruling out the Eagles having a massive game coming out of the bye at what will likely be their healthiest point in weeks (maybe even of the season).
Texans at Browns (-3)
Here's another game worth considering a teaser with the underdog, but the Browns are coming off a bye and playing a Texans team that isn't playing up to the level of its talent. A blowout loss is certainly a realistic scenario for them at any time.
Jaguars at Packers (-13.5)
No thanks to teasing a team down and not even getting them under seven. And I want no part in a Jaguars teaser, as that defense can give up 40 points at any time.
Bengals at Steelers (OFF)
If the Steelers come in as 7.5-point or 8-point favorites when the game is back on the board, I like them enough to move them into our rankings above, probably in the No. 4 spot ahead of the Bears.
Washington at Lions (OFF)
If Matthew Stafford plays and the Lions return as favorites of around four points, I don't mind teasing Washington up. You just can't expect Detroit to beat anyone by more than one score.
