Welcome to the latest installment of our weekly series looking at the top 10 NCAA Tournament resumes, and boy do we have some stuff to talk about. Tuesday was a historic night of upsets with No. 1 Villanova, No. 2 Kansas and No. 4 Kentucky all falling, marking the first time since 1979 that three of the top four seeds went down on the same night.
Check out all the movement in my latest bracket update.
When the NCAA selection committee evaluates teams, they are looking to answer some key questions about each team. Who did they play? Where did they play them? Who did they beat? And who beat them? It's a subjective process guided by objective data (RPI). There are five other computer ranking systems averaged together to help inform the committee, but no team gets in or seeded based on any individual or collective computer ranking alone.
For those of you who follow the football selection committee, note that head-to-head is not necessarily a decisive criterion in basketball. It is not unusual to see a team selected or seeded ahead of a team it lost to during the season.
Here is how things stand as of games through Jan. 24.
10. Louisville Cardinals
Best wins: Kentucky, Duke, Purdue
Losses: Baylor, at Florida State, at Notre Dame, Virginia.
The Cards have a few pretty good wins, but most of them have come at home. They also beat Indiana in Indianapolis, which counts as a neutral-site game. There isn't anything resembling a bad loss here for the Cards, and they were competitive in all of those games in which they did fall. Louisville has also played the toughest overall schedule. The committee likes to see that.
9. UCLA Bruins
Best wins: at Kentucky
The Bruins are largely living off the win at Kentucky, which is arguably the best win any team on this list possesses. Although they have eight RPI top 100 wins, they only have two other wins over teams in the current bracket projection. UCLA has the weakest overall schedule of any of the higher-rated teams, but they still have four games left against likely NCAA Tournament teams in the Pac-12, beginning Wednesday night vs. USC.
SPORTSLINE: How to bet USC +6.5 at UCLA
8. Virginia Cavaliers
Best wins: at Louisville, at Notre Dame
Losses: at Florida State, at Pitt, West Virginia
How did this team lost to Pitt? The Cavaliers' overall record and ability to beat very good teams on the road is why they are here. Their win at Notre Dame Tuesday night was the best ACC road win of the year. They also have wins at Clemson and Cal. The best thing a team can do for its tournament resume is beat quality opposition on the road.
7. Creighton Bluejays
Best wins: Butler, Wisconsin, at Xavier
Losses: Villanova, Marquette
Creighton played its first game without Maurice Watson Jr. and lost at home to Marquette (which put itself in the tourney picture with a win over No. 1 Villanova on Tuesday). The Warriors are a decent opponent, but you have to believe you would have liked the Bluejays' chances better with Watson. It's not enough to drop them from a 2-seed yet, especially with so many other healthier teams taking losses as well. We'll know more about Creighton by the end of the month after it faces Georgetown and Butler on the road.
6. Arizona Wildcats
Best wins: at UCLA, at USC
Losses: vs Butler, vs Gonzaga
Arizona got Allonzo Trier back in the lineup and picked up its biggest win of the season so far at UCLA on Saturday. They have also beaten USC, Michigan State and Cal and have suffered only a couple of close losses to very good teams.
The Wildcats' situation is the exact opposite of Creighton's. Arizona returned a key player from suspension (Trier) and, assuming there are no other roster issues, will be judged slightly more on how they do from here on out than how they did without Trier. As with Creighton, any consideration given to the time missed by the missing player will be slight. Sometimes, it's not even noticeable, because this is the team Creighton will take into the Tournament whereas Arizona has become different since its losses.
5. Kansas Jayhawks
Best wins: vs. Duke
Losses: vs. Indiana, at West Virginia
Kansas lost to Indiana in overtime on a neutral floor to start the season and hadn't lost again until Tuesday night in West Virginia. The only sure tournament team the Jayhawks have beaten is Duke, although TCU, Kansas State and Iowa State are all in the bottom half of the bracket at the moment. If the Jayhawks thought Tuesday night was hard, they better buckle up, because their next two games are at Kentucky and at home to Baylor. If KU wins both of those, it could find itself back on the top line of the bracket.
4. Florida State Seminoles
Best Wins: Duke, Florida, Louisville, Minnesota, Notre Dame, at Virginia.
Losses: at North Carolina, vs. Temple
See that long list of wins? Nobody else can touch that. Florida State has an unmatched seven RPI top 25 wins (the next closest is four) and nine RPI top 50 wins. The loss to Temple, which is not going to be a tournament team, is what has the Seminoles a little below Villanova, which also has as strong collection of wins.
3. Villanova Wildcats
Best wins: At Creighton, At Purdue, vs. Notre Dame, Xavier
Losses: at Butler, Marquette
The defending champions have four top-25 wins, which is second only to Florida State, but the Wildcats have won three of those away from home. Creighton and Purdue are very tough environments to win in on the road. Villanova will wish it could have the end of the Marquette game back, but if Marquette ends up being a tournament team, that loss won't hurt much in the end.
The game this Saturday between Kansas and Kentucky is getting all the hype, but the biggest non-conference matchup this weekend is Sunday's tilt between Villanova and Virginia in Philadelphia.
2. Gonzaga Bulldogs
Best wins: vs. Florida, vs. Arizona, Saint Mary's
Losses: None
Gonzaga has played a decent schedule and hasn't lost, but that strength of schedule will fall considerably as conference play goes on. The Zags' long-term seeding prospects will rely largely on how Florida and Arizona finish the year. They also have a win over Iowa State, which is currently in the bracket near the bottom of the at-large list. A strong finish by the Cyclones would help also. Gonzaga is also dependent on Saint Mary's. They need to beat the Gaels three times, but also need Saint Mary's to avoid bad losses in the league so that the quality of those wins is as high as possible.
1. Baylor Bears
Best wins: vs. Louisville, Xavier, Oregon
Losses: at West Virginia
Baylor has eight RPI top 50 wins, second only to Florida State. They have the wins listed above, plus three others against teams currently in the bottom half of the bracket, and two more against teams that are among the first four out. The loss at West Virginia was sizeable, but the Mountaineers did the same thing to Kansas. The Bears are not just in a strong position to get a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, they are also the team with the best chance to end Kansas' 12-year run as conference champion.
