Now that free agency is done, I thought it was time for our first look at sleepers, breakouts and busts for the 2024 campaign. Welcome to Sleepers 1.0.
We'll do another version after the NFL Draft later this month when player outlooks could change dramatically. And one player who could see his value rise is Kyler Murray. The Cardinals, who have the No. 4 overall selection, could add a high-profile wide receiver, potentially Marvin Harrison Jr. or Malik Nabers.
Either rookie would be a welcomed addition to a receiving corps that lost Marquise Brown (Kansas City) and Rondale Moore (Atlanta) this offseason. But that could also make Murray more expensive in Fantasy drafts.
In the offseason mock drafts we've done so far, Murray is being selected as a low-end starter or high-end backup. That puts him in sleeper territory, and he's someone I plan to target a lot if he stays in this range.
Last year, Murray returned in Week 10 from the torn ACL he suffered in 2022. In eight games, he scored at least 22.4 Fantasy points four times.
Murray wasn't afraid to run, gaining at least 32 yards on the ground in five outings, and he rushed for three touchdowns. And we know his rushing prowess is what makes him attractive to Fantasy managers.
He's averaged at least 20.3 Fantasy points per game in every season of his career, including two years with at least 24.9 points per game. He could easily finish as a top-five Fantasy quarterback in 2024.
With a new addition at receiver along with Trey McBride, Michael Wilson and Greg Dortch, Murray should have enough firepower in the passing game to thrive. And then his legs should put him over the top.
Murray, at the right price, will be on many of my Fantasy teams this season. Now, let's see some other sleepers that I'll be looking at drafting this year.
Quarterbacks
Kirk Cousins
Cousins might end up getting drafted as a No. 1 Fantasy quarterback once he's fully cleared from last year's Achilles injury, but most likely he'll stay in the No. 2 range. And that's great value for someone with top-10 upside. He landed in a good spot with the Falcons, who have young players on the rise in Drake London, Kyle Pitts and Bijan Robinson. And new Atlanta offensive coordinator Zac Robinson should run a similar system to what Cousins had in Minnesota. Last year, Cousins was on pace for a career-best season in yards (4,953) and touchdowns (38) before he suffered his injury in Week 8, and hopefully he can pick up where he left off. He also scored at least 22 Fantasy points in five of the eight games he played. Cousins is an excellent backup quarterback to target with a late-round pick, and he could emerge as a weekly starter during the season.
Will Levis
I wanted to list a quarterback here who might not get selected in most redraft leagues, but I like Levis' potential with a new coaching staff, revamped receiving corps and offensive line. He should like playing for new coach Brian Callahan, who was previously the offensive coordinator for the Bengals (2019-23), and now Levis gets to throw to Calvin Ridley, along with DeAndre Hopkins, Treylon Burks and Chigoziem Okonkwo. And with Derrick Henry gone, the Titans have more pass-catching weapons in the backfield with Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. Levis might never turn into a standout Fantasy quarterback, but we saw his upside in his first start last season when he scored 34.6 Fantasy points against Atlanta in Week 8. Don't be surprised if Levis is one of the top waiver wire additions early in the season in 2024.
Other sleeper quarterbacks of note: Tua Tagovailoa, Trevor Lawrence and Jared Goff
Running backs
Chase Brown
Brown is going to be one of my favorite targets on Draft Day, and I won't be surprised if he's the best running back in Cincinnati this season. With Joe Mixon traded to Houston, Zack Moss was brought in as the likely starter as a free agent from Indianapolis. While Moss was great filling in for Jonathan Taylor last year in the first five weeks of the season, Moss struggled to stay healthy when given chances to start in Buffalo at the beginning of his career. And it might not take an injury to Moss for Brown to prove he's the best running back for the Bengals. He didn't have a ton of work as a rookie in 2023 (44 carries for 179 yards and 14 catches for 156 yards and a touchdown on 15 targets), but he showed off his explosiveness with three plays of at least 27 yards. And in the three games where he had at least 10 total touches, he averaged 11.3 PPR points. You can probably draft Brown after pick No. 100 overall, but he could end up as a No. 2 running back in all leagues.
Brian Robinson Jr.
Robinson got significant competition for playing time this offseason with the addition of Austin Ekeler, but that should make Robinson a bargain on Draft Day. And I won't be surprised if he's the best running back in Washington this season. Ekeler, who turns 29 in May, might be washed up after what we saw in 2023 with the Chargers, although he was dealing with a high-ankle sprain after getting injured in Week 1. Still, Robinson might prove to be the better rusher (178 carries for 733 yards and five touchdowns in 2023), and he averaged 13.2 PPR points per game. He also did well as a receiver with 36 catches for 368 yards and four touchdowns on 43 targets. The new coaching staff for the Commanders, which features offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury and running backs coach Anthony Lynn, should be beneficial for Robinson. And then we'll see what quarterback Washington selects at No. 2 overall in the NFL Draft. It's not a bad idea to pass on Ekeler and wait for Robinson in your Fantasy drafts this year.
Jerome Ford
We'll see what happens with Nick Chubb in training camp, but he's coming back from a difficult left knee injury suffered in Week 2 last year. He had surgery to repair the meniscus and MCL in September, but he didn't have ACL surgery until November. At 28, we don't know how effective Chubb will be when he's back on the field, and the Browns could always opt to put him on the PUP list to start the season. If Chubb is out or limited to start the season then Ford will have the chance for plenty of work, and he averaged 12.4 PPR points last season as the main running back filling in for Chubb. Ford worked in tandem with Kareem Hunt, and Ford proved he could be an impact Fantasy option even though he only had four rushing touchdowns (Hunt had nine). D'Onta Foreman was added this offseason, but that seems more like insurance for Chubb and not someone who will replace Ford as the No. 2 running back on the roster. And even if Chubb is healthy, we know he's shared work plenty of time in his career with Hunt, and now Ford could fill that secondary role and still be productive. Ford is an easy running back to select after Round 10 in all leagues.
Elijah Mitchell
I'm hopeful nothing happens to Christian McCaffrey this season, but if he were to miss any time, then Mitchell would be a lottery ticket in all leagues. McCaffrey, who turns 28 in June, just had 339 total touches in the regular season (272 carries) and then 78 total touches (59 carries) in three playoff games. That's a lot of work for any running back, and it's a reason to invest in the No. 2 option on the depth chart. Mitchell had a hard time staying healthy the past two seasons with only 16 games played, but he was excellent as a rookie in 2021 when he averaged 15 PPR points per game. The 49ers offense under Kyle Shanahan has proven to be productive for any running back, not just McCaffrey, and Mitchell would be at least a No. 2 Fantasy option in all leagues if he got significant playing time. Again, I don't want to see anything happen to McCaffrey this year, but I want to be prepared if he were to miss any time. And, at least prior to the NFL Draft, Mitchell is No. 2 on the depth chart, which makes him an easy running back to target with a late-round pick in all leagues.
Other sleeper running backs of note: Chuba Hubbard, Gus Edwards, Jaleel McLaughlin and Kendre Miller
Wide receivers
Christian Watson
Watson was a breakout candidate going into last year, but he flopped, mostly due to repeated hamstring injuries, as he missed eight games. In the nine games he played, Watson only had three with more than 11 PPR points. Jayden Reed looked the part of the No. 1 receiver in Green Bay, but this is a deep receiving corps that also includes Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks. And my approach with the Packers receivers will probably be to get one of Watson, Doubs or Wicks with later-round picks (Reed will likely get drafted as early as Round 7). I still believe Watson has the most upside of the group if he can stay healthy, including Reed. Prior to Watson's final stint on the injury report, he had 12 catches for 165 yards and three touchdowns on 16 targets in two outings against Detroit and Kansas City, and he scored at least 20.4 PPR points in each game. He may never become an elite Fantasy option because of all the weapons in Green Bay (don't forget about Josh Jacobs and Luke Musgrave/Tyler Kroft), but he could become a No. 2 receiver if he can stay on the field. Watson is worth drafting as early as Round 9.
Jahan Dotson
Dotson was another receiver hyped up prior to 2023, but he was terrible in his second year in the NFL when he averaged just 7.3 PPR points per game. But this season, Dotson could return to prominence with a new system and quarterback in Washington. For starters, the Commanders let Curtis Samuel leave as a free agent to Buffalo, and Dotson should be No. 2 in targets (for now) behind Terry McLaurin. Last year, Samuel left Week 8 against Philadelphia and missed Week 9 at New England, and Dotson had 12 catches for 177 yards and two touchdowns on 18 targets in those two outings while scoring at least 16.9 PPR points in each game. We'll see how new offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury uses Dotson, and the Commanders will select a quarterback with the No. 2 overall pick in the NFL Draft. Hopefully, that quarterback makes Dotson a focal point, and I'm excited to re-invest in Dotson again this season. This time, however, the price is much cheaper since it will be after Round 10, and Dotson has the chance to be a No. 3 Fantasy receiver in all leagues.
Jameson Williams
I'm hopeful that Williams can make a big leap in Year 3 because the first two seasons of his career have been disappointing. His rookie season in 2022 was slowed by his recovery from a torn ACL, and he played only six games. Then 2023 started with his four-game suspension for gambling. But his role should expand in 2024, and Josh Reynolds (Denver) is now gone, opening up a starting spot (and 64 targets) opposite Amon-Ra St. Brown. We'll see if Detroit adds another receiver of significance in the NFL Draft, but the Lions already have plenty of weapons with St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. That said, Williams adds a speed element that could help Jared Goff and the offense be more explosive, and Dan Campbell knows it. "[Williams] is going to push to be a full-time starter, and that's what we're looking for," Campbell said at the NFL Scouting Combine in February. "Everybody grows at a different rate. Maybe it's taken him a little bit longer, but he is developing and growing. The kid has come on. We got high hopes for him and see him continuing to grow." I plan to draft Williams as early as Round 9 in all leagues, and he has the upside to be a top 30 Fantasy receiver in 2024.
Josh Downs
Downs will again be the No. 2 receiver for the Colts this season behind Michael Pittman Jr., and hopefully Downs can stay consistent all year. He got off to a great start as a rookie in 2023 with at least 13.1 PPR points in five of his first eight games, but he couldn't sustain that level of production. In his final nine games, his best outing was 9.9 PPR points in Week 16 at Atlanta. We also have to see how Downs does in a full season with Anthony Richardson, who is coming back from the shoulder injury he sustained in Week 5. Most of Downs' best production came with Gardner Minshew under center, but Richardson offers a higher ceiling for all of the receivers in Indianapolis, with Downs as someone who should soak up plenty of targets. Touchdowns could be hard to come by for Downs since he only scored twice in his rookie campaign, but he should prove to be a quality No. 3 PPR receiver. You should be able to draft Downs in Round 9 or later, and hopefully Richardson's return helps Downs become a standout Fantasy option in his sophomore season.
Other sleeper wide receivers of note: Michael Wilson, Wan'Dale Robinson, Demario Douglas and Quentin Johnston
Tight ends
Pat Freiermuth
The addition of Arthur Smith as the offensive coordinator in Pittsburgh should be good for Freiermuth given what Smith did for the tight ends in Atlanta. And the trade of Diontae Johnson to Carolina should help Freiermuth as well. Start with Smith, who dedicated 174 of 508 targets (34.3 percent) to his tight ends with the Falcons in 2023, including 90 for Kyle Pitts and 70 for Jonnu Smith. We know Pitts never lived up to his enormous hype, but he also dealt with terrible quarterback play. The usage is what matters, and Freiermuth could be No. 2 on the Steelers in targets with Johnson now gone, behind George Pickens. Johnson had 87 targets in 2023, and Freiermuth should see a huge bump from the 47 targets he had last season in 12 games. Freiermuth scored seven touchdowns as a rookie in 2021 and averaged 9.5 PPR points per game. He followed that up by averaging 9.3 PPR points per game in 2022, but he dropped to 7.5 PPR points per game last season. I'm hoping the addition of Smith, the loss of Johnson and consistent quarterback play from Russell Wilson will help Freiermuth get back on track. Now, Wilson doesn't have a great history of leaning on his tight ends, but hopefully Smith helps with that as well. Freiermuth is a good tight end to target with a late-round pick in all leagues.
Michael Mayer
Mayer had a quiet rookie campaign in 2023 when he averaged just 5.1 PPR points per game, but hopefully he can take a step forward in his sophomore season. We'll see who starts at quarterback for the Raiders out of Aidan O'Connell or Gardner Minshew (or a rookie?), but Mayer should emerge as the No. 3 target in the passing game behind Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers. Keep in mind that Mayer came into the NFL with as much hype as Dalton Kincaid and Sam LaPorta, but both of them had more productive rookie years. But with more opportunities, Mayer could turn into a borderline starter in all leagues. He had four games with at least five targets in 2023, and Mayer scored at least 10.9 PPR points in three of them, including two touchdowns. He's worth drafting with a late-round pick in all leagues.
Other sleeper tight ends of note: Luke Musgrave, Darren Waller and Isaiah Likely
