I hope you didn't spend too much on Jonathan Williams. Well, I think I hope that. Confused yet? So are we. Jordan Wilkins was removed from the Colts injury report on Wednesday which means the Colts backfield will be a three-headed monster, and we really don't know how it will work out.
I tried to crowdsource a guess on the Colts' backfield touches on Twitter. You guys were no help at all. In a way it was a comforting reminder that none of us have any idea how the Colts are going to use their running backs. And that makes it tough to trust any of them.
This is a bad matchup against a defense that is much better against the run than the pass. It could easily turn into a pass-heavy game script and I don't expect any of the backs to be hyper-efficient.
Nyheim Hines is my favorite Colts back in PPR just because we know what his role is going to be. He's still just a mid-range flex but he seems like a safe bet for eight PPR points and has upside beyond that. If I had to choose between Wilkins and Williams, it would be the former, but not with any confidence.
In non-PPR there are still two backs widely available on the waiver wire I'd rather start over all of the Colts.
Week 12 RB Preview
Who's Out
The following players are not being projected to play Week 12 at this time. Here's what it means:
The Colts have three running backs who could be flexes.
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Jaylen Samuels is a top-25 running back against the Bengals, while Benny Snell has flex appeal.
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Numbers to know
- 3.5 - Duke Johnson's yards after contact per attempt. That's tied with Chris Carson for the best in the league. He's an interesting flex against the Colts.
- 0 - Touches for David Johnson in Week 11. I don't want to cut him, but I can't make an argument for holding him through his bye.
- 9 - Austin Ekeler's PPR rank since Melvin Gordon returned in Week 5.
- 6.1 - Devin Singletary's yards per carry this season. He received volume in Week 11, but just didn't reach the end zone. I'm still starting him.
- 2 - Targets in two games for Royce Freeman since Brandon Allen took over at quarterback. Freeman is being squeezed out, and Allen doesn't target running backs enough.
Matchups that matter
Waiver Wire Targets
Scarbrough ran for more than 1,500 yards and 20 touchdowns at Alabama, so while he came out of nowhere, he does have pedigree. He also has a a fantastic matchup in Week 12 and very little competition for early down and short-yardage work. Scarbrough could be a low-end No. 2 running back in non-PPR or a flex in PPR.
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Snell could get double-digit carries if the Steelers blow out the Bengals, and this is a defense that's giving up more than 21 Fantasy points per game to running backs.
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In PPR, Hines is the safest Colts running back. He's caught at least three passes in three of his past four games. If he scores like he did last week, he'll be a top-20 back.
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Like Hines, I wouldn't want to sleep on McKissic in PPR. He's scored at least eight PPR points in all three games since Johnson went down and has been very efficient on a per-touch basis.
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Wilkins is a low-end flex but could have appeal if he gets the majority of the touches this week.
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Williams is a low-end flex but could have appeal if he gets the majority of the touches this week.
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You know the drill. Mattison is one Dalvin Cook injury away from being a top 10 running back.
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Much like Mattison, Pollard is just one injury away from a featured role in a very good situation. I prefer Mattison because of Cook's injury history, but both Pollard and Mattison need to be rostered virtually everywhere.
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Edwards is looking at 15-20 touches per game with goal-line opportunities if Ingram goes down.
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DFS Plays
I expect the Jaguars to overcorrect from their lack of running in Week 11, and Fournette should be benefit. He's been the most unlucky running back in football when it comes to touchdowns, and that's holding is price down lower than it should be based on his production.
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Singletary has been a disappointment the past two weeks, but this is a good spot to get an efficient back who should see good volume at extremely low ownership.
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Heath's Projections
Non-PPR Rank | PPR Rank | RB | FPTs | PPR FPTs |
1 | 1 | Christian McCaffrey | 22.46 | 27.72 |
2 | 2 | Alvin Kamara | 17.42 | 24.70 |
5 | 3 | Leonard Fournette | 16.72 | 21.11 |
4 | 4 | Josh Jacobs | 17.11 | 19.32 |
3 | 5 | Nick Chubb | 17.32 | 19.22 |
12 | 6 | Saquon Barkley | 13.24 | 18.34 |
6 | 7 | Derrick Henry | 16.41 | 18.12 |
7 | 8 | Tevin Coleman | 15.30 | 17.59 |
9 | 9 | Chris Carson | 14.48 | 17.54 |
8 | 10 | Ezekiel Elliott | 14.78 | 16.98 |
17 | 11 | Le'Veon Bell | 12.28 | 16.12 |
10 | 12 | Todd Gurley | 13.68 | 16.09 |
11 | 13 | Aaron Jones | 13.25 | 16.00 |
14 | 14 | Devin Singletary | 12.99 | 15.91 |
20 | 15 | Jaylen Samuels | 10.94 | 15.83 |
15 | 16 | Mark Ingram | 12.91 | 15.14 |
13 | 17 | David Montgomery | 13.00 | 15.08 |
24 | 18 | James White | 9.74 | 15.05 |
16 | 19 | Miles Sanders | 12.32 | 15.03 |
18 | 20 | Phillip Lindsay | 11.58 | 14.24 |
19 | 21 | Ronald Jones | 10.99 | 13.82 |
28 | 22 | Jamaal Williams | 8.95 | 13.01 |
21 | 23 | Joe Mixon | 10.21 | 12.40 |
26 | 24 | Brian Hill | 9.52 | 12.31 |
25 | 25 | Latavius Murray | 9.74 | 11.57 |
31 | 26 | Kareem Hunt | 7.72 | 11.48 |
30 | 27 | Duke Johnson | 8.37 | 11.18 |
32 | 28 | Tarik Cohen | 7.40 | 11.14 |
23 | 29 | Sony Michel | 9.76 | 10.98 |
22 | 30 | Carlos Hyde | 10.15 | 10.51 |
27 | 31 | Raheem Mostert | 9.20 | 10.49 |
37 | 32 | Nyheim Hines | 6.62 | 10.33 |
36 | 33 | JD McKissic | 6.74 | 10.10 |
33 | 34 | Kalen Ballage | 7.17 | 9.52 |
35 | 35 | Derrius Guice | 6.75 | 8.52 |
29 | 36 | Bo Scarbrough | 8.51 | 9 |
34 | 37 | Adrian Peterson | 6.82 | 8.20 |
40 | 38 | Rex Burkhead | 6.02 | 7.84 |
39 | 39 | Royce Freeman | 6 | 7.67 |
38 | 40 | Boston Scott | 6.58 | 7.37 |
42 | 41 | Jordan Wilkins | 5.81 | 6.60 |
47 | 42 | Jalen Richard | 3.89 | 6.53 |
43 | 43 | Frank Gore | 5 | 6.19 |
41 | 44 | Benny Snell | 5.83 | 5.83 |
So who should you sit and start this week? And which surprising quarterback could lead you to victory? Visit SportsLine now to get Week 12 rankings for every position, plus see which QB is going to come out of nowhere to crack the top 10, all from the model that out-performed experts big time last season.
