Week 12 marked the fourth time this season that Goerge Kittle has given Fantasy mangers seven points or fewer. Two of those have come in the past three weeks since the team acquired Christian McCaffrey. You may be wondering if the 49ers have too many weapons for Kittle to be a consistent performer. The answer is maybe, but he also has too much upside to sit.
In Kittle's nine games this season, he's given Fantasy managers 16 or more PPR Fantasy points three times. A 33% chance at even 12 points is enough to be a starter at this dreadful position. We only have eight tight ends averaging double-digit Fantasy points, and two of them on are injured reserve.
If matchups matter, this week should be a good one for Kittle against the Dolphins, who have given up the third-most Fantasy points to tight ends. In fact, his closing schedule is pretty fantastic, with games against Miami, Seattle, Tampa Bay, and the Raiders. Unfortunately, I think this more of a product of how many weapons the 49ers have, and not who Kittle is playing.
Regardless of the cause, much like the boom/bust wide receivers, you can't take Kittle out of your lineup even coming off a dud. He has too much upside and this position offers too few alternatives.
Here's everything else you need to know about tight end in Week 13:
The following players are not being projected to play Week 13 at this time. Here's what it means:
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Numbers to Know
7.8 -- Gerald Everett whiffed on a dream matchup versus the Cardinals, scoring just 7.8 PPR Fantasy points. He's still running about the same amount of routes but just isn't producing like he was to start the season.
19.5 -- Percent of career targets Deshaun Watson has thrown to tight ends, just under the 2022 league average. However, David Njoku is probably the best tight end Watson has played with in the NFL.
5 -- Dalton Schultz and Foster Moreau are tied for first among tight ends with five end-zone targets since Week 7.
50 -- In four games without Zach Wilson, Tyler Conklin has either 50 receiving yards or at least seven targets.
26 -- Travis Kelce leads the NFL with 26 red-zone targets; no one else has more than 19.
Conklin has averaged 11.5 PPR FPPG in the four games without Zach Wilson. More importantly, he's been much better in games where the Jets throw a lot and the matchup against the Vikings strongly suggests 35-plus pass attempts.
Even in last week's dud, Johnson had two more red-zone targets. Most of the tight ends outside the top-12 are touchdown-or-bust options, and Johnson is at least consistently getting opportunities in that area of the field.
We talk in this space every week about Kelce being the only sure thing at tight end this season, and the gap between him and everyone else continues to grow. And this week is a homecoming, with Kelce going back to Cincinnati where he played his college ball. I wouldn't play anyone else in cash games, and he's a fine tournament play if you have a contrarian stack you want to build around him.
No one is going to play Higbee this week, and for good reason: He did not see a target last week. But we've seen his role ebb and flow throughout the season and he faces the Seahawks this week. They've allowed double-digit Fantasy points to six tight ends in their past seven games and we just saw a nice bounce-back performance from Foster Moreau against them.
