While the first waiver run of the year is exciting, in a lot of leagues there were players dropped who have way too much upside to be on the waiver wire this early in the season. At receiver, Kadarius Toney, Quentin Johnston, and Tank Dell fit that bill.
Toney had one of the worst Week 1 performances I can ever remember from a wide receiver. But he is still Patrick Mahomes' favorite wide receiver, and the Chiefs are going right back to him this week, Andy Reid said as much. If Toney hits, he has top-15 upside, but he was still dropped in 13 percent of leagues and now has a roster rate of 66%. Go scoop him up in leagues deeper than 10 teams.
Quentin Johnston was a first-round pick who is attached to Justin Herbert in one of the best offenses in football. You should have expected a slow start to the season, with Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Josh Palmer ahead of him on the depth chart. But Allen and Williams both have injury concerns and Palmer can't touch Johnston's upside. He's now rostered in 69% of leagues, but by Sunday I will make sure that is 100% of my leagues.
Finally, Tank Dell was only 24% rostered last week, so his 22% roster rate probably doesn't sound like a big deal. The thing is, Noah Brown was placed on IR, which could move Dell into the starting lineup earlier than expected. I know he's small, but he can fly and he's an excellent route runner. He produced 2,741 yards from scrimmage and 29 touchdowns in his last two seasons at the University of Houston. He profiles as a huge target earner if he hits.
Expect Davante Adams to gobble up at least a third of the targets and a target boost for Josh Jacobs as well.
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Numbers to Know
47.6% -- Zay Flowers' 47.6% target share leads the NFL. Not bad for his first game.
64% -- Tee Higgins saw 64% of Joe Burrow's intended air yards. He didn't catch any of them, but Burrow was still looking his way.
45.5% -- Kadarius Toney was still targeted on 45% of his routes in Week 1.
60% -- Christian Kirk only played 60% of the snaps in Week 1. His season-low in 2022 was 75%. I'm giving him at least one more week, but I'm nervous about Kirk.
3.38 -- Jakobi Meyers averaged a ridiculous 3.38 YPRR in Week 1. He looks like a starter once he recovers from his concussion.
24.1 -- Calvin Ridley's 24.1 PPR Fantasy points was the most he'd scored in a game since Week 15 of 2020. He is all the way back.
13 -- DeAndre Hopkins saw 13 targets in Week 1. Nick Westbrook was the only other Titan with more than four. Hopkins is still an alpha No. 1.
5 -- Gabe Davis only caught five passes in two games combined against the Jets last year. Don't hold Week 1 against him.
I'm not sure there's going to be a big gap between Packers' receivers this season. Five different players saw between three and five targets in Week 1, with Reed tying Romeo Doubs for a team-best five. Both Doubs and Christian Watson have battled a variety of injuries since they joined the league, if they both go down at the same time, we could see the targets consolidate in Reed's favor.
Cooper Kupp is out and Matthew Stafford is playing good football. Someone has to rack up the yards. Atwell has Round 2 pedigree and just set career highs in catches and yards in the season opener of Year 3. That is someone you do not want to leave on the waiver wire.
I was very impressed by the fact that Dell played 48% of the offensive snaps in Week 1, so he stays atop my stash adds at wide receiver. He has a great relationship with C.J. Stroud and at some point this team is going to stop running Robert Woods out there as they play for the future. Dell could be a big-time help in the second half.
Chase and the Bengals offense was a big-time bust in Week 1. With Tyreek Hill and Justin Jefferson both off the main slate, I am going right back to Chase. He doesn't often have two bad games in a row and he has had his way with the Ravens in the past. Chase has topped 19 Fantasy points in four of five games against the Ravens, including the playoffs.
Dotson is just $100 cheaper than Zay Flowers on DraftKings, and I would imagine more people will flock to the rookie coming off a sparkling debut. I expect Pat Surtain to be on Terry McLaurin most of the day, which should open things up for Dotson, who led Commanders' receivers with seven targets in Week 1.
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Heath's Projections
My full set of Week 2 Fantasy football projections for every position are now available on SportsLine. Find out which of my favorite plays are projected to score higher than consensus rankings and which don't live up to their draft hype, at least in Week 2. Projected stats for all starting running backs are available, so be sure to check out the full set of projections at SportsLine.
