Editor's Note: This is Part 3 of a five-part series that dives deep into NFL quarterbacks making sudden, massive improvement, which we've dubbed 'QB Leap Week.' To see what's coming each day this week, scroll down to the end of this story.
A few things I enjoy about every NFL season is seeing teams go worst-to-first, from pretenders to contenders, and of course, breakout performances like the QB leap.
I recently logged every QB leap since 2000 to find the most common factors linking them together as we look ahead to project leaps in 2023. The primary factors leading to QB leaps can be placed into four buckets. QB development, coaching, supporting cast and a change of scenery. In case you missed this week's topics so far, I covered the history of QB leaps on Tuesday and the young QBs most likely to take a leap on Wednesday.
Today is all about coaching, because this was the second-most common thread since 2000, showing up as the primary factor in 22 of the 91 leaps. It was especially relevant in 2022 as four of the seven leaps were mostly due to coaching changes. Jared Goff got a new offensive coordinator that opened up the play-action game, Justin Fields was used on the move more with a new head coach and Trevor Lawrence went from Urban Meyer to Doug Pederson.
Perhaps the most pronounced shift though took place with Daniel Jones. He shook the turnover narrative in his first year with rookie head coach Brian Daboll while stretching the field less often. He actually had the lowest turnover rate and second-shortest pass length among qualified QBs in 2022. It wasn't the prettiest formula, but it worked as the Giants made the playoffs and Jones got a huge payday.
One of my favorite historical examples of a coach leading to a QB leap is Alex Smith with Jim Harbaugh and the 2011 49ers. Smith, a former top overall pick, was a complete bust up to that point in his career. He had a new offensive coordinator every year and couldn't shake the injury bug. Everything changed in 2011 as he had a career year and the 49ers reached the NFC Championship game.
So who is this year's Alex Smith or Daniel Jones? Here's a look at four quarterbacks with a new head coach or offensive coordinator in order from least to most likely leap. For this exercise I'll only look at returning signal callers.
Mac Jones (Not happening)
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Mac Jones' stock plummeted in 2022 as he went from 14th in EPA per play as a rookie to 29th last season. While anyone, including Bill O'Brien, is an upgrade at offensive coordinator over Matt Patricia, I don't expect this change to turn the tide much.
The Texans never had a top-10 scoring offense in seven seasons with O'Brien as their head coach. They were 14th in offensive EPA in three seasons with Deshaun Watson and DeAndre Hopkins. I'm sure there will be sweeping changes, but not enough to repair Jones' reported rift with the team.
The Patriots are also the worst team in the AFC East (on paper) and Jones still has a supporting cast that is worse than what he had in college. They don't look improved in 2023 either. JuJu Smith-Schuster instead of Jakobi Meyers and Mike Gesicki for Jonnu Smith feel like lateral moves.
Russell Wilson (maybe)
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Russell Wilson and Sean Payton will be a historic pairing in 2023. The first primary starting QB and head coach duo in NFL history to play together after each won a Super Bowl at a previous stop. As I wrote about last week, the Super Bowl pedigree might not mean much and I have mixed feelings about their fit.
The case for a leap is Payton's success with the Saints where they were perennially one of the best offenses in the league. Plus, Wilson's first year in Denver with Nathaniel Hackett could have been the case of just a bad fit. Denver also upgraded its offensive line this offseason and returns RB Javonte Williams and WR Tim Patrick from injury.
The case against a leap has to do with Wilson's decline and his fit with Payton. Wilson is running less at this stage of his career and his EPA per play ranks versus pressure in the last three seasons are seventh in 2020, 14th in 2021 and 17th in 2022. Payton's style could also be a culture shock for Wilson and he had success with a QB that is the opposite of Wilson. Drew Brees got rid of the ball quickly and was surgical with short passes while Wilson is known for his improv and deep passing.
The one certainty is there's a lot riding on this combo. The Broncos traded a haul for Wilson and Payton in the last two offseasons that included three first-round picks and three second-round picks, plus gave Wilson a monster extension that pays him nearly $50 million a year.
Lamar Jackson (Probably)
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The Ravens offense will look different with Todd Monken replacing Greg Roman as the team's offensive coordinator. Lamar Jackson has already confirmed he will "absolutely" run less in 2023. Baltimore had the second-fewest plays with three-plus WRs on the field in the last four seasons. That should change with this new philosophy and a WR core that includes Rashod Bateman, Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham Jr.
Jackson must improve the accuracy of his deep ball if he's going to thrive in this offense. He has the fourth-highest off-target rate on passes 20-plus yards downfield (36%) since coming into the league. If he does, all of it could mean a return to MVP form for Jackson, who has a new contract, new weapons and a new coach entering 2023.
Justin Herbert (Definite leap)
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Matt Ryan was the only QB with a shorter average pass distance than Justin Herbert last season. That is one of the most stunning facts from 2022 given Herbert's absurd arm strength. It's also one reason Herbert looked pedestrian at times last year and finished the season ranking 15th in EPA per play.
That should all change in 2023 for several reasons. He will have more time to throw with LT Rashawn Slater returning from injury. He will have more downfield targets with Mike Williams and Keenan Allen healthy, and the addition of first-round rookie WR Quentin Johnston.
Then there's new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, who has the creativity and play-calling ability to play to Herbert's strengths and take advantage of all the weapons around him.. The Cowboys scored the most points of any NFC team in their four seasons with Moore as OC from 2019-22. Dak Prescott also ranked top 10 in the NFL in longest average throw distance in that span.
Stick around for the rest of the QB leap articles this week:
Friday: Which offseason move will lead to a leap?
They say the NFL is a copycat league and the new trend is trading for veteran pass catchers, especially those who can speed up the development of new quarterbacks. Getting top-flight wide receivers worked wonders for Josh Allen (Stefon Diggs), Joe Burrow (Ja'Marr Chase), Jalen Hurts (A.J. Brown) and Tua Tagovailoa (A.J. Brown). 2023 leap candidates include Trevor Lawrence (Calvin Ridley), Daniel Jones (Darren Waller), Justin Herbert (Quentin Johnston), Lamar Jackson (Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham Jr.) and Justin Fields (D.J. Moore).
Saturday: Which old face in a new place will improve the most?
The hot trend that failed miserably in 2022 was acquiring veteran QBs. Russell Wilson, Carson Wentz, Baker Mayfield and Matt Ryan all flopped. Prior to that, we saw Tom Brady and Matthew Stafford make leaps all the way to Super Bowl titles in 2020 and 2021. 2023 leap candidates include Aaron Rodgers (Jets), Jimmy Garoppolo (Raiders), Jacoby Brissett (Commanders), Baker Mayfield (Buccaneers) and Derek Carr (Saints).
