NFL odds, picks for Week 15: Proven computer model loving Packers, Seahawks
SportsLine's computer model simulated every Week 15 NFL game 10,000 times with surprising results
Only six teams have officially been eliminated from the NFL playoff picture entering this week. And the Week 15 NFL odds show that several teams on the postseason bubble are in for a battle. After opening as 2.5-point underdogs, the Titans (7-6), who likely need to win out to claim an AFC wild-card spot, are now one-point favorites against the Giants on the road after news broke that Odell Beckham Jr. (quad) has been ruled out. The Vikings, meanwhile, are a 7.5-point favorites over the Dolphins in a game that has implications on both the NFC playoff picture and AFC playoff picture. With division titles on the line and NFL odds and spreads moving, be sure to check out the top Week 15 NFL picks and predictions from SportsLine's proven computer model.
SportsLine's proprietary computer model went 176-80 straight up last season and beat over 95 percent of CBS Sports Office Pool players in 2016 and '17. It also performed better than 98 percent of experts tracked by NFLPickWatch.com during that span. Additionally, it went 48-34 on A-rated picks against the spread last season, and $100 bettors who have followed it the past two seasons are up nearly $4,000.
The model has continued to nail its top-rated picks in 2018, entering Week 15 on a blistering 16-3 run. For the season, it is now 30-12 on all top-rated picks, extending its two-year run to a strong 78-46. And when it comes to all straight-up picks, the model is 139-67 on the season, ranking in the top two on NFLPickWatch.com. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now it has examined the latest NFL odds and spreads, simulated every snap 10,000 times, and its Week 15 NFL picks are in. One of the top Week 15 NFL picks the model recommends: the Packers (+5) cover at Solider Field against the division-rival Bears.
The Bears (9-4) have won six of their last seven overall and come into this matchup one week removed from holding the high-powered Rams to just six points, easily LA's lowest total of the season. Green Bay (5-7-1), meanwhile, knocked off the Falcons last week to snap a three-game losing streak, but its playoff hopes are hanging by a thread entering this matchup.
History favors Green Bay in this matchup since the Packers have won five straight in the series and nine of the last 10. And Chicago hasn't won by more than five points against Green Bay since 2013. The model is looking for that trend to continue as the Packers cover in over 50 percent of simulations, while the Over (46.5) also has plenty of value.
Another one of the Week 15 NFL predictions from the model: the Seahawks (-3.5) cover on the road against the 49ers. The model is calling for a six-point Seattle win, clearing the spread with room to spare.
The Seahawks (8-5) earned a hard-fought victory over the Vikings on Monday night and have now won four straight games. That includes a dominant 43-16 home victory over San Francisco in Week 13. Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson threw four touchdowns in his first meeting against the 49ers, while Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny combined for over 120 rushing yards. The Seahawks could also get wide receiver Doug Baldwin back from a hip injury. Baldwin has scored a touchdown in two of the last three games he's played.
Despite San Francisco's victory as an underdog last week, the model isn't calling for a repeat performance. The Seahawks cover the 3.5-point spread in well over half of simulations, while there's also value on the Over (44.5) because that hits 55 percent of the time.
The model also has a strong pick for the huge AFC battle between the Steelers and Patriots, and is calling for a Super Bowl contender to go down hard this weekend in a game that will shake up the NFL playoff picture forever.
What NFL picks can you make with confidence in Week 15? And which Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Check out the latest NFL odds below and then visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that has beaten 98 percent of experts over the past two years.
Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings (-7.5, 45)
Oakland Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals (-3, 46)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Baltimore Ravens (-8.5, 46.5)
Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts (-3, 47)
Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills (-2.5, 40)
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (-5, 46.5)
Tennessee Titans at New York Giants (+1, 43)
Washington Redskins at Jacksonville Jaguars (-7.5, 36.5)
Arizona Cardinals at Atlanta Falcons (-9.5, 44)
New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5, 54)
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (+3.5, 44.5)
Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Rams (-13, 52)
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (+6, 50)
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