This is our last look at the CBS Sports Average Draft Position before Labor Day weekend, and I'm curious to see what will change after a busy time of drafts. We'll see how much player movement is altered by what many of you do over the next few days.
What we're doing here is checking on several risers and fallers in ADP at each position leading up to this weekend. After this weekend, I'm going to review the updated ADP as a guide for the first waiver wire column Tuesday, as well as help those of you still doing drafts leading up to Thursday's season opener with the Packers and Bears.
The ADP is a good guide to help you on Draft Day. You should study it as much as possible to see the range of when players can come off the board, and it can also help you determine if you need to reach for a player sooner than expected.
With that in mind, let's take a look at the players on the rise, as well as the guys who are falling for one reason or another.
By Position
ADP Risers and Fallers
Quarterbacks
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He is now the No. 9 quarterback off the board with an ADP of 75.7, and I hope he continues to rise. I like him as the No. 6 quarterback this season, and I'm excited for his outlook. All he has to do is stay healthy, and Wentz should be in line for a career year. He's a great quarterback to target with a mid-round pick.
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Now that Brady's receiving corps has improved with Josh Gordon back, Fantasy managers are buying back into him as a starter. I think it's a mistake that he's now the No. 10 quarterback off the board with an ADP of 84.7. Brady can certainly still help you win in your Fantasy leagues, but I'd rather have several guys going after him, including Cam Newton, Russell Wilson, Jameis Winston and Lamar Jackson.
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Jackson has only made it to the No. 15 quarterback with an ADP of 107.8, and that's a steal given his upside. I wouldn't be shocked if Jackson passed for 3,000 yards this season and ran for 1,000 yards, which would make him an unbelievable Fantasy quarterback, especially in leagues with four points for passing touchdowns. I have plenty of shares of Jackson this year, and I'm excited for his outlook in 2019.
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This one is puzzling, and if Newton falls to where his ADP is at 87.9 as the No. 11 quarterback then you should pounce on him. I have him as a top-five quarterback this year, and he should be fine with his recent foot injury, as well as last year's shoulder woes. The foot injury is probably the reason for his decline in ADP, but you should take advantage of this situation and grab Newton at a discounted rate.
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Winston did not play well in Tampa Bay's third preseason game against Cleveland, and the Buccaneers offensive line was a mess. But Mike Evans was out for that contest, and I wouldn't let that performance be an indication of Winston's Fantasy value for this year. I consider him a top-10 Fantasy quarterback in 2019, and I would love to draft him at his ADP at 97.8 as the No. 13 quarterback off the board.
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I still think Murray can be a good Fantasy quarterback this year, but there's no reason to draft him as a starter. Thankfully, his ADP has fallen to 114.1 as the No. 16 quarterback off the board. That's a good spot to gamble on him as a No. 2 quarterback with upside. I hope the Arizona offensive line will keep Murray afloat. If that happens, he could emerge as a weekly Fantasy starter during the season.
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ADP Risers and Fallers
Running Backs
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Johnson has seen the biggest spike at running back in the past week, which is understandable given Houston losing Lamar Miller (ACL) for the season. Johnson is now up to 66.3 with his ADP, but I've seen him drafted in the fourth round in some leagues. I would prefer Johnson in Round 5, regardless of format, but he could be a great Fantasy asset as the new starting running back for the Texans.
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Guice has seen his ADP rise to 87.9, and it was great to see him healthy in Washington's third preseason game against Atlanta. We still have to see how Washington will use Guice with Adrian Peterson and Chris Thompson on the roster, but I would gamble on Guice as early as Round 6 in non-PPR leagues and Round 7 in PPR. He has plenty of upside, but the problem is the crowded backfield, as well as Washington being a bad team. Still, he's worth the gamble as a No. 3 Fantasy running back this year.
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This is one of my favorite players all offseason, and I draft him in as many leagues as possible. His ADP is on the rise to 108.7, but I would draft him as early as Round 8. While I expect Damien Williams to be fine as the starter for the Chiefs, if he struggles or gets hurt than Thompson could be a potential league winner. I also expect him to play in tandem with Williams early in the year.
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It's understandable why Fantasy managers are panicked with Mack now that Andrew Luck has retired, but I hope he falls to a point where he's a value pick. His ADP is down to 44.5, and I would still draft him in Round 4 in most leagues. The Colts still have a tremendous offensive line, and Jacoby Brissett isn't going to be as bad as most people expect. Mack can definitely still be a starting Fantasy running back in all formats.
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Cohen is falling in my rankings also, and his ADP is at 75.9. He's still worth using as a potential starter in PPR, but he's going to lose touches to David Montgomery and potentially Mike Davis. In non-PPR leagues, I would only draft Cohen as a key reserve. He could end up as a value pick if he still gets about 170 touches like he got in 2018, but it's hard to expect that kind of work if Montgomery takes over this backfield.
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Ballage saw his ADP on the rise over the past few weeks with Kenyan Drake dealing with a foot injury, but now that Drake is back at practice it's easy to fade Ballage. His ADP is at 125.8, and that's the range he should be drafted as the likely handcuff for Drake. Miami's offensive line is not going to help Ballage, and he should be limited in the passing game. He's a marginal talent in a bad situation, and he's not someone to covet on Draft Day in most leagues.
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ADP Risers and Fallers
Wide Receivers
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I moved Sanders up in my rankings from a late-round pick to a borderline starter, and he's a great No. 3 Fantasy receiver to target in all leagues. He seems fine after his return from last year's Achilles injury, which is amazing, and his ADP is at 83.7. I would draft Sanders as early as Round 7, and hopefully he stays healthy all season as the No. 1 receiver in Denver.
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Fantasy managers are finally drafting Valdes-Scantling ahead of Geronimo Allison, and Valdes-Scantling should have the chance for the better year. His ADP is at 123.6, while Allison is at 130.1, but both receivers could be useful. I expect Valdes-Scantling to produce more Fantasy points, and he's a great No. 4 receiver to target in all formats.
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I've been impressed with Gallup this preseason, and he's a solid late-round flier at his ADP at 140.2. He could shatter that ADP if Amari Cooper (foot) misses any time in the regular season, although Cooper is expected to be fine for Week 1. Still, Gallup could turn into a reliable weapon for Dak Prescott, and he's worth stashing on your bench early in the year.
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Hilton's ADP has fallen to 49.7, and I think Round 5 is a good spot for him. He obviously loses value with Luck gone, but I still expect the Colts to be better than expected with Brissett. And if Hilton continues to slide it could present a great situation for you because I still expect Hilton to be a top 20 Fantasy receiver in 2019.
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Moore is falling, likely because of Newton's foot injury. He's at 78.9 overall, which is just silly, and I would draft Moore as high as Round 5. He's behind guys like Alshon Jeffery, Mike Williams and Jarvis Landry, which shouldn't be the case. Moore is going to be a weekly starter in all leagues this year.
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Pettis has been on a continual slide for weeks, and he's one of my bigger disappointments this preseason. I was drafting him as high as Round 6, and now his ADP is at 117.7 overall. You might want to pass on Pettis altogether and just target Marquise Goodwin, who is rising with his ADP at 149.1. Goodwin, and not Pettis, could be the No. 1 receiver for the 49ers this year.
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ADP Risers and Fallers
Tight Ends
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Henry's ADP is up to 71.1 overall, but that's not high enough. He's the No. 7 tight end off the board, but you can argue he should be No. 4 at the position behind Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz and George Kittle. I'm excited for Henry now that he's back from last year's torn ACL, and I would draft him in Round 5 in all formats.
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Walker is up to the No. 10 tight end off the board with an ADP of 102.4, but I like him a couple of spots higher in my rankings. Like Henry, I'm excited that Walker is back after missing 15 games last season with an ankle injury. Walker isn't sexy, but he is a good fallback option at tight end if you miss on the top-tier guys, especially if you can get him in Round 8 or later.
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I've come around on Hockenson as a starting Fantasy option, and I love his ADP at 120.4 overall. He's the No. 14 tight end off the board, but I have him ranked in the top 10. Most rookie tight ends tend to struggle, and we have only one tight end who has finished as a Fantasy starter since 2014, which was Evan Engram in 2017. I think Hockenson could be good in this Lions offense, and he's worth drafting with a late-round pick in all leagues.
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Ebron was already on the decline in my rankings because I didn't expect him to repeat his performance from last year when he scored 14 total touchdowns. Now, with Luck out, I don't want to draft Ebron in most leagues. And his ADP at 97.1 is too high, especially as the No. 9 tight end off the board. I'd rather have Walker, Jordan Reed and Hockenson, who are all going after Ebron based on ADP.
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Reed's ADP is on the decline, likely because of the concussion he sustained in the third preseason game against Atlanta. But he's expected to be fine for Week 1, and he's a great value pick with his ADP at 119.4 overall. We know he's got a bad injury history and has yet to play 16 games in a season in his career, but when he's on the field, he's a quality Fantasy option. I still consider Reed a No. 1 Fantasy tight end in all leagues.
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Andrews got a lot of hype in training camp, but we haven't seen it on the field yet. It's why his ADP is on the decline at 129.7 overall. But I'll still take a chance on Andrews as a starting Fantasy option if I wait on tight ends, and I'm expecting him to be a key contributor for the Ravens. He could end up as a steal at his current ADP.
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So which Fantasy Football busts should you avoid in your draft? And which superstar QB isn't a trustworthy QB1 option? Visit SportsLine now to get Fantasy Football cheat sheets from the model that called Allen Robinson's disappointing season, and find out.
