Yes, we're only in Week 5. No, that doesn't mean it's too early to start thinking about the NFL playoffs, which start the second week of January.
It's a long road from here to the postseason, but it's obviously better to jump out to a good start and be in position for a playoff spot all year, rather than having to win one late in the season. With that in mind, let's take a look at the playoff picture as it stands right now:
AFC
Who's In
- AFC East: New England Patriots (3-1)
- AFC North: Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1)
- AFC South: Houston Texans (3-1)
- AFC West: Denver Broncos (4-0)
- Wild Cards: Baltimore Ravens (3-1), Oakland Raiders (3-1)
Who's Out
- AFC East: Buffalo Bills (2-2), New York Jets (1-3), Miami Dolphins (1-3)
- AFC North: Cincinnati Bengals (2-2), Cleveland Browns (0-4)
- AFC South: Jacksonville Jaguars (1-3), Tennessee Titans (1-3), Indianapolis Colts (1-3)
- AFC West: Kansas City Chiefs (2-2), San Diego Chargers (1-3)
NFC
Who's In
- NFC East: Philadelphia Eagles (3-0)
- NFC North: Minnesota Vikings (4-0)
- NFC South: Atlanta Falcons (3-1)
- NFC West: Los Angeles Rams (3-1)
- Wild Cards: Dallas Cowboys (3-1), Seattle Seahawks (3-1)
Who's Out
- NFC East: Washington (2-2), New York Giants (2-2)
- NFC North: Green Bay Packers (2-1), Chicago Bears (1-3), Detroit Lions (1-3)
- NFC South: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-3), Carolina Panthers (1-3), New Orleans Saints (1-3)
- NFC West: Arizona Cardinals (2-3), San Francisco 49ers (1-4)
What To Expect
A couple years ago, the fine folks at FiveThirtyEight analyzed 23 years of NFL data to come up with the percentage chance of a team making the playoffs based on their record at any given time. Here's what they found:
So what does this all mean?
Well, the 4-0 Broncos and Vikings are looking at an 83 percent chance of making the playoffs right now, while the 0-4 Browns have just a 1 percent shot of playing beyond Jan. 1.
The difference between 2-1 and 3-0 is apparently huge, as just 53 percent of 2-1 teams like the Packers have made the playoffs, while 75 percent of 3-0 teams like the Eagles did the same.
Nearly half the league (13 teams) had a record of 1-3 through four weeks, and those teams stand just a 15 percent chance of making it to the postseason. (Two 1-3 teams squared off on Thursday night, with the Cardinals improving to 2-3 and the 49ers dropping to 1-4. There are now 11 teams with 1-3 records.) A win in Week 5 nudges that chance up to 22 percent, while a loss drops it all the way to five percent. There are four games pitting 1-3 teams against each other in Week 5, so it seems safe to say this is a fairly big week for determining who might have a chance to stay alive in the playoff race.
Who's Better (and Worse) Than We Think
Point differential has been shown to be a better predictor of future success than actual won-loss record. When looking to each team's point differential, there are a few outliers that we might be able to expect to have their record swing back in the other direction the rest of the way.
The 3-1 Rams have actually been outscored by 13 points this season. We might expect them to have their record take a turn for the worse quickly, but they also don't play a team that currently has a winning record until their Dec. 4 meeting with the Patriots.
The Cardinals, after starting 1-3 despite outscoring their opponents by 12 points, secured a victory over the 49ers on Thursday despite the absence of Carson Palmer. They have an opportunity to get back to .500 with a game against the Jets next week.
The 1-3 Chargers, meanwhile, have outscored theirs by 13 points. San Diego is missing three of its 10 best players for the rest of the year and has a brutal schedule over the next four weeks: Raiders-Broncos-Falcons-Broncos. We may not be talking about them as a team that we should expect to get better for much longer.
The 1-3 Bears and Bucs, on the other hand, might be even worse than they look, having been outscored by 35 and 51 points so far, respectively. Neither of those teams has the most challenging schedule coming up, so we'll see if either one can bounce back.
