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Bill Belichick offered a classic Bill Belichick response when asked about his historic 300th career victory this past Sunday. The longtime Patriots coach joined Don Shula and George Halas as the only NFL coaches in the 300-win club following his team's 29-25 win over the Buffalo Bills. 

"It's great," Belichick said afterword. "I'm really more focused on our team and this year. I'll worry about that later. Thank you."

Don't confuse Belichick's response with not caring or understanding the levity of the accomplishment. Belichick is an NFL historian who has a deep-rooted level of appreciation for the game's history and the people who left an indelible impact on pro football. He knows, perhaps better than anyone, what 300 wins means for him and his legacy. 

It would also be a mistake to assume that Belichick's desire to continue coaching isn't at least partly due to a desire to break Shula's record of 347 wins, including the postseason. When including his record-31 playoff wins, Belichick has 331 wins as an NFL head coach, leaving him 17 wins short of breaking the record Shula set in 1993. 

How long will it take Belichick to break Shula's record? It obviously depends on how good the Patriots will be over the next few years. Unless they completely go in the tank, the Patriots should be able to win 17 games between now and the early portion of the 2025 season, at the latest. New England (2-5) has 10 more games this season to get closer to Shula's record; how many games the Patriots win during that span may determine whether or not Belichick breaks the record in 2024 or in 2025. 

The 2023 Patriots have remaining road games against the Dolphins, Giants, Steelers, Broncos and Bills and home games against the Commanders, Colts, Chargers, Chiefs and Jets. At this point, it seems that the Week 15 matchup in Kansas City may be the only game that is hard to envision the Patriots winning. This weekend's game against the Dolphins also presents a stiff challenge. 

Let's say New England wins each of its remaining games against teams that currently have a losing record. That would put Belichick five wins closer to Shula's record. Belichick would get even closer to breaking Shula's record if his team is able to defeat a visiting Jets team in Week 18 that will probably not include Aaron Rodgers. 

Given their remaining schedule, a 7-10 season seems like a reasonable record to expect from Belichick's club. That would leave him 12 games short of the record entering the 2024 season. And while 12 wins is possible, it'll more than likely take the Patriots two seasons to cover that win total. That means that Belichick will probably break Shula's record in 2025, when he is 73 years old and in his 26th season as Patriots coach. 

While little stays the same in the NFL, the Patriots' 2024 schedule isn't the easiest, with just four games against teams that currently have losing records. 

Patriots 2024 opponents 

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As noted above, there's a very good chance that Belichick's 348th win will come during the early stages of the 2025 season. That means that the record-setting win will more than likely take place against one of the following teams. 

Patriots 2025 opponents

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Once thought to be an unbreakable record, it seems like a foregone conclusion that Belichick will break Shula's record, especially after Belichick reportedly signed a contract extension this past offseason. At that point, Belichick will have nearly every significant coaching record. Not bad for a former Div. III football and lacrosse player whose first NFL gig paid him $25 a week.