NFL odds, picks for Week 10: Proven computer model loving Patriots and Browns

The latest Week 10 NFL odds continue to adjust as kickoffs approach. The Patriots are now 6.5-point favorites against the Titans, down a half-point after news broke that tight end Rob Gronkowski is out with ankle and back injuries. On Sunday Night Football, the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles are touchdown favorites against the division-rival Cowboys. It'll be Philadelphia's first game after trading for wide receiver Golden Tate, while new Dallas receiver Amari Cooper has had another week to absorb the playbook. With depth charts constantly changing and NFL odds and lines on the move, be sure to check out the Week 10 NFL picks and predictions from SportsLine's advanced computer model. 

SportsLine's proprietary computer model went 176-80 last season and beat over 95 percent of CBS Sports Office Pool players in 2016 and '17. It also performed better than 98 percent of experts tracked by NFLPickWatch.com during that span. Additionally, it went 48-34 on A-rated picks against the spread last season, and $100 bettors who have followed it the past two seasons are up nearly $4,000. 

The model has continued to nail its top-rated picks in 2018, entering Week 10 on a strong 8-0 run. For the season, it is now 22-9 on all top-rated picks, extending its two-year run to a blistering 70-43. And when it comes to all straight-up picks, the model is 89-43 this season, again ranking in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch.com. Anybody who has been following it is way, way up. 

Now it has examined the latest NFL odds and spreads, simulated every snap 10,000 times, and its Week 10 NFL picks are in.

One of the top Week 10 NFL picks the model loves: the Patriots (-6.5) cover in Nashville against the Titans

Plenty of familiar faces will meet up in this matchup as Titans coach Mike Vrabel takes on former coach Bill Belichick. And although Tennessee pulled off the upset in Week 9 on the road against the Cowboys, the model likes the value on the Patriots this weekend, even with tight end Rob Gronkowski (back, ankle) sitting.

Tom Brady throws for over 300 yards, according to the model, helping New England cover in almost 55 percent of simulations. There's also plenty of value on the under (47.5) because that hits over 50 percent of the time in this battle of two defenses that are giving up fewer than 23 points per game. 

Another one of the strong Week 10 NFL predictions from the model: the Browns (+6) cover against the Falcons in a game whose NFL odds have been moving all week.

The Falcons opened as 2.5-point favorites, but with 75 percent of the public backing them, the line has shot up 3.5 points to -6 in recent days. That's created plenty of value on the Browns, according to the model, because Atlanta is being overvalued after a win against a Washington team that was down multiple offensive linemen.

Cleveland, meanwhile, has dropped four straight, but three of those losses came against the potent Chiefs, Steelers and Chargers. At just 2-6-1 straight-up, the Browns are a much stronger 5-4 against the spread, and the model says Cleveland covers in over half of simulations. The model is also calling for 49 total points to be scored, giving plenty of value to the under (50.5).

The model also has a strong selection for the huge Cowboys vs. Eagles showdown on "Sunday Night Football" and is calling for a Super Bowl contender to get a huge scare against a big underdog. 

What NFL picks can you make with confidence in Week 10? And what Super Bowl contender gets a huge scare? Check out the latest NFL odds below and then visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that has beaten 98 percent of experts over the past two years.

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (-7.5, 36.5)
Atlanta Falcons at Cleveland Browns (+6, 50.5)
New Orleans Saints at Cincinnati Bengals (+5, 54)
Washington Redskins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3, 50.5)
New England Patriots at Tennessee Titans (+6.5, 47.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-3, 47)
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (-7, 44)
Arizona Cardinals at Kansas City Chiefs (-16.5, 49.5)
Los Angeles Chargers at Oakland Raiders (+10, 50)
Miami Dolphins at Green Bay Packers (-10, 47.5)
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (-9.5, 50.5)
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-7, 43.5)
New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers (-3.5, 44.5)

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