One of the biggest upsets of Week 13 came in Seattle when the Giants pulled off a 17-12 stunner over the heavily favored Seahawks. In the opening odds for Week 14, the Seahawks are once again heavily favored, but you might not want to look for an upset to happen and that's because this game will give us a situation that Seattle has never lost in.
For their game against the Jets, Seattle has opened as a 13.5-point favorite, which is notable, because over the course of their franchise history, the Seahawks are undefeated in games where they're favored by 13 or more points.
The Seahawks have existed since 1976 and in that time, they've been favored by 13 or more a total of 17 times. In those 17 games, the Seahawks have gone 17-0 straight up (10-7 against the spread). That's 17 wins over 44 years. To put that in perspective, NFL teams are 49-7 straight up since the start of the 2017 season when favored by 13 or more, and the seven losses over that span have come from seven different teams (Patriots, Saints, Vikings, Rams, Packers, Falcons, Broncos). Basically, anyone can lose at any time, but the Seahawks have managed to avoid the upset when they're favored big.
For the 2020 season, NFL teams are 7-0 straight up when favored by 13 or more, but just 2-5 against the spread. However, one of those two covers by a heavily favored team did come in a game involving the Jets. Back in Week 8, the Chiefs beat New York 35-9 as a 20-point favorite.
Although an underdog of 13 or more points doesn't pull off the upset very often, it has happened at least once in each of the past three seasons (2017-2019), so maybe we should put the Seahawks on upset alert for the second straight week.
With that in mind, let's check out the rest of the opening point spreads for Week 14.
NFL Week 14 early odds
(All lines from William Hill Sportsbook unless noted, all games on Sunday unless noted)
Patriots (6-6) at Rams (8-4), Thursday
Opening line: Rams -6
In their past 10 games against NFC teams, the Patriots have gone 8-2 straight up and 7-3 ATS. The fact that the Patriots are an underdog in this game is notable and that's because New England has won and covered in two straight games as an underdog. Since the start of the 2013 season, they're also 10-3 ATS and 9-4 straight up as an underdog. As for the Rams, they've lost four straight games to teams from the AFC and they went 0-4 ATS in those games. That record includes going 0-2 both straight up and ATS against the AFC East this year.
Texans (4-8) at Bears (5-7)
Opening line: Texans -1.5
If you're thinking about betting on the Bears this week, you might want to reconsider and that's because they're one of the coldest teams in the NFL right now. Not only are they 1-5 ATS in their past six games, but they're also 0-6 straight up in those games. The Bears are also 0-5 both straight up and ATS in their past five games against AFC teams, which includes 0-2 against the AFC South this year. As for the Texans, they've actually won six straight games as a road favorite, but they're just 2-2-2 ATS in those games.
Cowboys (3-8) at Bengals (2-9-1)
Opening line: Cowboys -4
The Cowboys are 2-9 ATS on the season, which is not only the worst mark in the NFL, it's so bad that even if they cover against Baltimore on Tuesday, it will still be the worst. The Cowboys are also 1-6 both straight up and ATS in their past seven road games, although they could improve upon that number on Tuesday in Baltimore. The Cowboys have also lost in each of the past three games where they've been a road favorite. As for the Bengals, they've covered in four straight home games and they've gone 2-1 ATS on the year against NFC East teams.
Chiefs (11-1) at Dolphins (8-4)
Opening line: Chiefs -7.5
One reason you might not want to bet against Miami in this spot because the Dolphins are 9-3 ATS on the season, which is the best mark in the NFL (The Steelers could tie that mark on Monday if they cover against Washington). The Dolphins are also 14-5 ATS in their past 19 games as an underdog, including winning and covering in their past three. The Dolphins also seem to do pretty well in December at home, going 8-2 both straight-up and ATS In their past 10 December home games. As for the Chiefs, you probably don't want to bet on an upset here and that's because the Chiefs are 18-2 straight up in the past 20 games where they were favored by a touchdown or more. However, they're just 9-10-1 ATS in those games.
Cardinals (6-6) at Giants (5-7)
Opening line: Cardinals -2.5
The Giants have somehow turned into one of the safest bets in the NFL over the past few weeks, going 7-2 ATS in their past nine games (5-4 straight up). One reason their ATS record has been so good is because they've covered in seven straight games where they've been an underdog, including Sunday's win over the Seahawks. The Giants have also won three straight outright as an underdog. As for the Cardinals, they're just 5-11 ATS playing in the eastern time zone since the start of the 2016 season, including 1-2 this year. The Cardinals have also gone five straight games without covering, which is the longest streak in the NFC and second-longest in the NFL.
Vikings (6-6) at Buccaneers (7-5)
Opening line: Buccaneers -6.5
The last 10 times the Vikings have been an underdog of six or more points, they've gone 7-3 ATS. However, they've gone just 1-9 straight up in those games, so you might not want to bet on the upset here. As for the Buccaneers, this game will mark the sixth time this season they've been favored by six or more points. In the previous five games, they've gone 5-0 straight up, but just 3-2 ATS. The Buccaneers will be coming into this game off a bye, which is notable, because Tom Brady is 14-4 straight up in his career off a bye.
Broncos (4-8) at Panthers (4-8)
Opening line: Panthers -4
In their past 17 games against NFC teams, the Panthers have been impressive, going 12-5 ATS and 11-6 straight up. That being said, the Panthers have been one of the worst favorites you can bet on in this type of situation. In the past eight games where the Panthers have been favored by a field goal or more, they've gone 2-8 both straight up and ATS. As for the Broncos, they're 0-3 straight up and ATS against the NFC South this year and they've lost those three games by an average of 17.7 points.
Titans (8-4) at Jaguars (1-11)
Opening line: Titans -7
The Titans have absolutely dominated this series over the past few years. In the past 10 meetings between these two teams, the Titans have gone 8-2 straight up and 7-3 ATS. Of course, one of those three covers for the Jaguars came back in Week 2 when they lost to the Titans 33-30 in a game where Jacksonville was a seven-point underdog. One positive thing to keep in mind about the Jaguars is that they're 4-1 ATS in their past five games.
Colts (8-4) at Raiders (7-5)
Opening line: Colts -3
The Colts have been an absolute disaster out in the pacific time zone, going 1-5 straight up and 1-4-1 ATS in their past six games. On the other hand, the Colts have been strong as a road favorite with three straight wins and three straight covers. As for the Raiders, they're 6-3 ATS In their past nine games as an underdog (3-6 straight up).
Jets (0-12) at Seahawks (8-4)
Opening line: Seahawks -13.5
The Jets are 4-8 ATS on the year, which is tied for the second-worst mark in the NFL. However, they seem to have come alive over the past few weeks because they're 3-1 ATS in their past four games. In their past six trips to the west coast, the Jets are 1-5 both straight up and ATS. As for the Seahawks, they're 13-2-straight-up and 9-6 ATS In the past 15 games where they've been favored by double-digits, but one of those two losses did come on Sunday to the Giants.
Packers (9-3) at Lions (5-7)
Opening line: Packers -8.5
Although the Packers have won three straight games in this series, the Lions have been the better bet over the past few years. Since the start of the 2017 season, the Packers are 1-6 ATS against Detroit and 3-4 straight up. The one cover for Green Bay came back in Week 2 when the Lions blew a 14-3 lead in a game that the Packers would win 42-21 as a 7-point favorite. The Packers have been pretty good on the road lately, going 11-4 straight up and 10-5 ATS in their past 15 games away from Green Bay.
Saints (10-2) at Eagles (3-8-1)
Opening line: Saints -7
If there's one team you want to bet on right now, it's probably the New Orleans Saints. Not only have the Saints won an NFC-high nine straight games, but they've also covered in five straight games, which is the longest active streak in the NFL. It's not clear who will be the Saints quarterback this week, but if Drew Brees is out, it's worth keeping in mind that Taysom Hill is 3-0 both straight up and ATS as a starter this season and the Saints are 8-0 straight up and ATS without Brees since the start of last season. As for the Eagles, this will mark the third time this season they've been a home underdog. Although they lost the previous two games, they went 2-0 ATS. The Eagles are 4-8 ATS on the season, which is tied for the second-worst mark in the NFL.
Falcons (4-8) at Chargers (3-9)
Opening line: Falcons -2.5
Over the past few weeks, betting on the Chargers has basically been the same thing as setting your money on fire. The Chargers haven't covered a game since OCTOBER. Since Nov. 1, they've gone 0-6 ATS, which is the longest active non-covering streak in the NFL. The Chargers have also been horrible at home since the start of the 2019 season. Over the past year and a half, the Chargers are 4-10 straight up at home and 3-10-1 ATS. As for the Falcons, they've won three straight games against AFC teams and they've gone 3-0 ATS in those games.
Washington (4-7) at 49ers (5-6)
Opening line: 49ers -4.5
Since the start of the 2019 season, Washington is 3-10 straight up (6-9 ATS) in road games and that record could drop to 3-11 if they lose to the Steelers on Monday. As for the 49ers, they're just 5-14-1 ATS in the past 20 games where they've been favored by four or more points, which includes going 1-3 both straight up and ATS this season.
Steelers (11-0) at Bills (8-3)
Opening line: Steelers -1.5
The Steelers have had a solid year on the road so far. Heading into Week 14, the Steelers are 5-0 straight up and 4-1 ATS when playing away from Pittsburgh. However, they haven't been so good in December road games: In their past five, they've gone 1-4 straight up. As for the Bills, they're 4-11 straight up and 5-10 ATS in their past 15 games as a home underdog. The fact that this game is being played in prime time probably won't delight many fans in Buffalo and that's because the Bills are 1-6 straight up and 1-5-1 ATS in night games over the past five years.
Ravens (6-5) at Browns (9-3), Monday
Opening line: Ravens -1
In the past 10 meetings between these two teams, the Ravens have gone 8-2 straight up and 7-3 ATS. That total includes back in Week 1 when the Ravens beat the Browns 38-6 in a game where Baltimore was favored by seven. This game will mark the third time this season the Ravens have played in prime time, which is bad news for the Ravens, because not only did they lose the two prior games, but they went 0-2 ATS.
