The best week in the NFL is the opening week. Good teams aren't in midseason form and bad teams don't know they're bad, an excellent combination of jumping to conclusions around the league. The NFL always has weekly overreactions to performances, but Week 1 is the king of overreacting to a game or individual performance.
Of course, this is what makes the NFL great. These are the best reactions from a few games in the opening week of the year after the Sunday slate of games, and whether these storylines are overreactions or reality.
Tua Tagovailoa is the early front-runner for MVP
Overreaction or reality: Reality
When Tua Tagovailoa is healthy, the Dolphins offense is a juggernaut. Tagovailoa was dominant throwing the football in the Dolphins' thrilling 36-34 win over the Chargers, completing 28 of 45 passes for 466 yards with three touchdowns and an interception for a 110.0 rating. Tagovailoa even had the game-winning touchdown pass to Tyreek Hill with 1:45 left to put Miami ahead for good, leading the Dolphins to a comeback victory.
Of course it's only Week 1, but Tagovailoa leads the NFL in passing yards, yards per attempt, and is tied for the league lead in passing touchdowns. The Dolphins are a Super Bowl contender in the AFC if Tagovailoa is healthy.
If Tagovailoa plays all 17 games with this offense, he'll be in the MVP mix.
Tyreek Hill is going to get 2,000 receiving yards this season
Overreaction or reality: Reality
Tyreek Hill was his typical dominant self against the Chargers, catching 11 passes for 215 yards and two touchdowns in the win (his third game with 200 receiving yards and two touchdowns). Hill is on pace for 3,655 yards this season (it's Week 1), but he only needs to average 111.6 yards per game to get to 2,000 thanks to his torrid start.
The goal was to get to 2,000 yards for Hill, who had 1,710 receiving yards last year. If Tagovailoa is healthy all season, Hill will reach the milestone he desires.
Christian McCaffrey will win the rushing title
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
This is another "if he stays healthy" scenario, but Christian McCaffrey was dominant in the 49ers' opener Sunday -- much like his team. McCaffrey had 22 carries for 152 yards and a touchdown in the 49ers' 30-7 victory over the Steelers, finishing with an impressive 6.9-yards-per-carry average.
The catalyst behind the 49ers rushing attack, McCaffrey had a full offseason in Kyle Shanahan's zone-run scheme after an impressive half-season last year. If McCaffrey is healthy for all 17 games, there's an excellent chance he could push for 1,700 rushing yards with all the pass catchers around him.
McCaffrey never had more than 1,387 rushing yards in a season, but he's never been running in the scheme that benefits his skill set. He could be in for a huge year with the 49ers.
The 49ers are the best team in the NFC
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
What an impressive performance by the 49ers in the win over the Steelers. San Francisco outclassed Pittsburgh in every facet, outgaining the Steelers 391-239, while holding them to seven points and 3.9 yards per play. The 49ers jumped out to a 20-0 lead and never allowed the Steelers to get back in it.
Is San Francisco the best team in the NFC after an impressive win on the road (on the East Coast no less). The Eagles looked spotty and held on to beat the Patriots on a rainy day in Foxborough while the Cowboys blew out the Giants 40-0, flexing their muscle against a team they typically dominate.
The 49ers are the biggest threat to the Eagles in the NFC to get to the Super Bowl, but a few more games need to be played out before determining that one. They are one of the five best teams in the NFL and have the potential to be even better.
Puka Nacua will win Offensive Rookie of the Year
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
What a start for Puka Nacua, finishing with 10 catches for 119 yards to lead the Rams in receiving (in his debut no less). The Rams needed someone to step up with Cooper Kupp out and Nacua delivered, having the second-most catches in the NFL through the Week 1 Sunday slate of games.
Can Nacua win Offensive Rookie of the Year? Kupp will come back at some point, which will take some targets away. Bijan Robinson also runs in the Falcons offense and Anthony Richardson also had a strong first three quarters in his debut (and will only get more playing time and experience). Jordan Addison also caught a touchdown in his debut.
Nacua is a pleasant surprise in his rookie class, but too early to have him as the rookie of the year after one week. He does have the makings of a good wideout in this league.
Jordan Love will make Packers fans forget about Aaron Rodgers
Overrearction or reality: Reality
First off, Jordan Love beat the Bears -- which is something Aaron Rodgers always did. Then, Love goes 15 of 27 for 245 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions in the first game of the post-Rodgers era (with a 123.2 rating). Love completed a pass to six different receivers and was strong on third down and in the red zone. Love completed 7 of 9 passes on third down for 106 yards and a touchdown while going 2 of 4 in the red zone for two touchdowns -- both to Romeo Doubs.
Love averaged 9.1 yards per attempt, stretching the field and making Packers fans feel good about the future at quarterback. Like Rodgers was in the post-Favre era, the Packers appear to be in good hands with Love.
The Titans should make a change at quarterback
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
Ryan Tannehill was terrible against the Saints, going 16 of 34 for 198 yards and three interceptions for a passer rating of 28.8. The Titans scored just 15 points and had no offensive touchdowns, while averaging 4.9 yards per attempt. Tannehill was poor on Sunday, but should Tennessee make a quarterback change with him being in the final year of his contract?
The sad truth is -- Malik Willis is worse and Will Levis is an unproven rookie. The Titans have no one currently better than Tannehill -- and probably won't for the whole year. If Tannehill takes care of the football, Tennessee is 1-0 as the Saints scored 10 points off turnovers (two of his interceptions).
Tannehill isn't getting benched any time soon.
Browns are the best team in the AFC North
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
The Browns are better than many think, and they seem to have the Bengals' number (as evidenced by how many times Joe Burrow as lost to them). Cleveland has a talented roster and Jim Schwartz may be the answer for their defense, as they held Burrow to 14 of 31 for 82 yards and a 52.2 rating -- while the Bengals had 142 yards of offense and just three points.
The offense still needs some work, as Deshaun Watson went just 16 of 29 for 154 yards with a touchdown and an interception. The Browns did have 350 yards of offense in the win and controlled time of possession.
While the win was impressive against a Super Bowl contender, the division is still loaded and the AFC North is going to change week to week. The Browns are certainly in the mix, showing the Bengals they will be a problem in 2023.
The Giants will finish in last place in the NFC East
Overreaction or reality: Reality
New York looked absolutely horrible in the blowout loss to Dallas, as one team looked like a Super Bowl contender while the other didn't belong in the conversation among the NFC's best. Sure the Giants made the divisional round of the playoffs last year, but they had many flaws in an offense carried by Saquon Barkley they didn't seem to correct.
Daniel Jones started 7 of 15 for 50 yards and two interceptions, clearly showing his receivers aren't any better than last year. New York started with 22 yards on its first five possessions, with a blocked field goal and an interception return for a touchdown in the first quarter alone. This is a team that is supposed to compete with the Eagles and Cowboys in the NFC East?
The Giants can't beat the Cowboys nor Eagles. They might not be able to beat the Commanders, who have improved. Could be a dismal season in New York.
