Welcome to the Monday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!
It's Pi Day, which is kind of fitting, because Pi is a number that goes on forever and I'm starting to think Tom Brady's NFL career might also go on forever after he announced his return on Sunday night. That's right, Tom Brady has retired from being retired.
Brady's decision has already had major ramifications on free agency for the Buccaneers: Tampa Bay center Ryan Jensen re-signed with the team Sunday night just hours after Brady made his announcement.
Speaking of free agency, you better grab some popcorn and put the kids to bed because things have probably already gotten crazy since around noon ET today and that's because that's when the NFL's legal tampering period started.
Although free agency doesn't technically start until Wednesday, players are allowed to agree to a deal with a new team starting today. (They just can't sign that deal until Wednesday.) To give you an idea of how fast things work once the tampering period starts, the first big contract came in at 12:02 p.m. ET with former Buccaneers guard Alex Cappa heading to Cincinnati on a four-year, $40 million deal, which is good news for the Bengals, because no one needs offensive line help more than them.
By the time you read this newsletter there could be even more deals in place around the league, so to make sure you stay on top of all of those, you're definitely going to want to click here so you can check out our live blog. If you're too busy to be following a live blog, you can also click here to check out our free agent tracker that will be updated any time one of the top 100 free agents signs a deal.
As always, here's your weekly reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. All you have to do is click here and then share the link. Alright, let's get to the rundown.
Also, with NCAA Tournament tipping off this week, I'd like to formally invite everyone join the Pick Six Podcast bracket challenge. It's free to enter and if you somehow win, you'll take home a $100 gift card to Paramount Plus. You will likely destroy me, but unfortunately, there's no prize for destroying me. Just click here and sign up if you want to enter.
1. Today's show: Monday Mailbag!
During the NFL offseason, we like to spice things up each week on the Pick Six Podcast by adding a listener mailbag every Monday.
Our mailbag episodes are pretty simple: We read listener questions during the show and then answer as many of those questions as possible. Questions can be about literally anything. I mean, I'm pretty sure there was one time when someone asked if I have a favorite color of sock, so if we'll answer that question, trust me when I say we'll answer almost anything.
Anyway, if you want to submit a question, all you have to do is go to Apple Podcasts (click here) and leave a five-star review that includes your question.
Here's one question that Will Brinson, Ryan Wilson and I answered in today's mailbag:
Q: With all the conversation about AFC vs NFC and "is the Super Bowl really the best game of the season," what do you think of a change up where you do a "Champions League style" draw to find out the two sides of the playoff tree, meaning you could theoretically have any Super Bowl matchup and still have rules on home-field advantage, seeding etc. And if this happened what would be your dream Super Bowl matchup?
A: This question ended up starting a conversation between the three of us about what would be the best way to fix the NFL playoffs to make them more exciting. If Roger Goodell quit his job and put me in charge of the NFL, I would make a small tweak to the postseason: I would let the top teams pick their opponent for each round.
In the wild-card round, the top seed in each conference would still get a bye, but after that, it would be total chaos. First, the two-seeds in each conference would get to pick their opponent. If you use the 2021 playoff field, that means the Buccaneers would get to pick their opponent from the six wild-card teams (three from the AFC and three from the NFC). After that, the Chiefs would have gotten to make their choice and so on.
The same format would take place in the divisional round with the top seeds (in 2021 that would have been the Packers and Titans) picking their opponents.
This entire spectacle would be broadcast on Sunday night in Week 18 instead of a final primetime game. It would get millions of viewers and I would look like a genius, so please make this happen Roger.
Anyway, to listen to the rest of the mailbag, be sure to click here. You can also watch today's episode on YouTube by clicking here.
By the way, we ALSO had an emergency podcast on the return of Tom Brady and you can check that out by clicking here.
2. Winners and losers of Tom Brady's return
Tom Brady sent shockwaves around the NFL on Sunday night. The quarterback's decision to come out of retirement created a seismic shift around the league with the Buccaneers going from a middle of the road NFC team to a serious Super Bowl contender.
Like all big decisions in life, there were some winners and losers, so I decided to make a list of who won and who lost. (You can check out the entire list by clicking here.)
WINNERS
- Buccaneers. From the front office to the ticket office to the coaching staff to Tampa Bay's wide receivers to the fans, everyone associated with the Buccaneers comes out a winner. Brady's decision is already having an impact on the Buccaneers ability to retain their biggest free agents. Just hours after the QB made his announcement, Ryan Jensen re-signed in Tampa with a three-year, $39 million deal. Jensen likely won't be the only one who signs with Buccaneers to play with Brady.
- The NFL. The league is much more fun with Brady in it.
- Fans in Germany. The NFL has already announced that the home team for the NFL's first regular season game ever in Germany will be the Buccaneers, which means German fans might be the biggest winners of all with Brady's return. Watching Brady is much more exciting than watching Blaine Gabbert.
LOSERS
- Every team in the NFC South that's not the Buccaneers. This division is now Tampa's to lose.
- Every team on Tampa Bay's 2022 schedule. The Buccaneers aren't going to be an easy win for anyone now that Brady's back.
- Fan who bought Tom Brady's 'final' TD pass. Someone paid $518,000 for the football from Brady's "final" TD pass, which is a huge problem because due to Brady's return, it's not going to be his final TD ball much longer, which means the ball is now basically worthless.
If you're wondering how Brady's decision will impact the QB market heading into free agency, Cody Benjamin went over the ramifications of Brady's return and you can check that out by clicking here.
Brady's decision to return isn't the first time that someone has retired and then changed their mind. As a matter of fact, it actually happens more often than you think (hello, Rob Gronkowski and Marshawn Lynch). Bryan DeArdo made an entire list of players who have unretired and you can check out the list by clicking here.
Finally, if you want to know why this year could be Brady's best season yet, be sure to check out Jason La Canfora's piece on the Buccaneers quarterback. You can do that by clicking here.
3. Cowboys ship Amari Cooper off to Cleveland: Full trade details, plus grading the deal for both teams
At the beginning of the month, the Cowboys leaked out that they were going to release Amari Cooper unless they could find someone to take him in a trade. After just over a week of looking, they finally found someone: the Cleveland Browns.
The Browns capped a week of wild trades in the NFL by pulling the trigger and making a deal for Cooper on Saturday.
Here's a look at the trade details:
- Browns receive: Amari Cooper, 2022 sixth-round pick
- Cowboys receive: 2022 fifth-round pick and a 2022 sixth-rounder.
- Other notable parts of the deal: The Browns will also be taking over the rest of Cooper's contract, which has three years and $60 million left. The upside for the Browns is that none of it is guaranteed, although Cooper's $20 million salary for 2022 WILL become guaranteed on March 20. Basically, the Browns can move on at any point after the 2022 season and it won't cost them a thing.
I don't completely love this trade for the Cowboys, but I also don't hate it. If I were a pessimistic Cowboys fan, I'd be upset that my team just basically gave away Cooper for free. The Cowboys had to give up a first-round pick to acquire Cooper from the Raiders and now they're getting rid of him for almost nothing. That being said, if I were an optimistic Cowboys fan -- I think roughly three of them exist -- I'd like this trade for my team because we just dumped a ton of salary. The cash-strapped Cowboys are picking up $16 million in salary cap space in the deal.
On the Browns' end, they landed one of the NFL's top receivers for almost nothing. The only thing it's going to cost Cleveland is $20 million for 2022, but it can quickly get out of Cooper's contract after one season if things don't work out, so there's really no downside.
TRADE GRADES
I definitely thought the Browns got a bargain and it seems our resident professor, Jeff Kerr, agrees.
Kerr handed out trade grades to each team and here's what he came up with:
- Browns grade: A-. "The Browns needed to improve at wide receiver, an opportunity they couldn't pass up when Cooper became available. Regardless how Cooper fits in Kevin Stefanski's offense, the Browns only gave up a pair of Day 3 draft picks to improve at the position. ... Taking on Cooper's remaining $60 million contract is worth the risk for Cleveland, especially since Cooper has been a top-10 wide receiver since the Cowboys acquired him in Week 9 of the 2018 season."
- Cowboys grade: D. "The Cowboys should get some credit for receiving two draft picks for Cooper, a player they were going to release to save $20 million in salary cap space next week. Even though Dallas was stuck between a rock and a hard place, the Cowboys could have received higher draft compensation for Cooper right? The Cowboys should be fine without Cooper, but he's too good a player to be traded for two Day 3 picks. Poor contract management by the Cowboys front office made this move necessary."
You can check out Kerr's full explanation for each grade by clicking here.
4. Deshaun Watson trade could be coming this week
It's been more than a year since Deshaun Watson first demanded to be traded out of Houston, but a deal never materialized at any point over the past 12 months due to the quarterback's legal situation.
From a criminal standpoint, the quarterback's situation improved Friday, which could pave the way for him to be traded this week. Here are the latest details on Watson's situation:
- Grand jury decides not to indict Watson. Although the Texans QB was facing sexual assault accusations from 22 different women, only nine of those involved a criminal complaint. A grand jury in Harris County Texas was presented with the evidence from each of those cases Friday and declined to indict the quarterback. This means Watson won't be facing any criminal charges, although he could still face a financial punishment in a civil court.
- Watson could still face NFL punishment. Watson might not face any criminal charges, but he could still face an NFL suspension. Back in 2010, NFL commissioner Roger Goodell suspended Ben Roethlisberger for six games after the QB was accused of sexual assault for a second time. (He wasn't criminally charged in either case.) Big Ben's suspension was eventually trimmed down to four games, and it should be looked at as a punishment that shows there's precedent for punishing Watson.
- Two teams have already made big offers for Watson. The reason a trade could go down soon is because multiple teams have already made their offers for Watson. According to NFL.com, both the Panthers and Saints have already made an offer for the Texans quarterback. There's also been some speculation that the Seahawks, Eagles and Browns might also think about making a play for the quarterback with Cleveland being the wild-card.
- Watson apparently wants to meet with each interested team. One thing that could slow down the trade process is that Watson wants to meet with each team individually, according to NFL.com. The quarterback has a no-trade clause and it seems he wants to do his due diligence with all interested parties before he waives it for any particular team. On Monday,
Any team hoping to acquire Watson will likely want a deal done before free agency starts. That timeline allows teams that don't land the Texans QB to make other plans. This is why it won't be surprising if we see a Watson deal go down at some point this week.
5. NFL free agency is about to get crazy
Although the NFL calendar says that free agency starts at 4 p.m. ET on Wednesday, don't be fooled by that. The real action started today when the legal tampering period opened at noon ET. Basically, by the time you read this newsletter, there's a good chance that several deals could already be in place.
Once the legal tampering period starts, players are allowed to agree to terms on a contract with a new team. (However, they can't sign the contract until Wednesday.) Once the tampering period starts, things usually get pretty hot and heavy. For instance, when the legal tampering period opened last year, we saw the Patriots try to scoop up nearly every available free agent by handing out nearly $300 million in contracts before midnight Monday.
Since deals could be going down all day Monday, here's another reminder that we've put together a tracker for you so that you can stay up to date on what has happened so far. If you'd like to check out the tracker, just click here. We also have a live blog that will cover signings AND trades and you can check that out by clicking here.
Also, to help you get warmed up for free agency, here's a list of Pete Prisco's top 10 free agents who will be available (they're listed with the team they played for last season):
1. OT Terron Armstead (Saints)
2. OLB Von Miller (Rams)
3. CB J.C. Jackson (Patriots)
4. EDGE Chandler Jones (Cardinals)
5. CB Carlton Davis (Buccaneers)
6. OG Brandon Scherff (Commanders)
7. FS Marcus Williams (Saints)
8. WR Allen Robinson (Bears)
9. DE Randy Gregory (Cowboys)
10. OLB De'Vondre Campbell (Packers)
The top guys are usually the ones who get signed first in free agency, so it won't be surprising if we see multiple players from this list agree to a deal Monday.
6. Rapid-fire roundup: Kirk Cousins gets lucrative extension
It was a wild weekend in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you.
- Vikings sign Kirk Cousins to one-year extension. Cousins was about to go into the 2022 season with the second-biggest cap hit in the NFL, but that won't be the case anymore. The QB has agreed to a one-year extension that will trim his 2022 cap hit down from $45.17 million to $31.25 million. Under the new deal, Cousins' 2022 salary will go from $35 million to $40 million, according to ESPN. For 2023, he'll earn $30 million, which gives him $70 million over the next two years.
- Davante Adams won't play on the franchise tag. After navigating their way through the Aaron Rodgers drama, it appears the Packers have some new drama on their hands. According to NFL.com, Adams has informed the Packers he won't be playing on the franchise tag this year, which is going to put even more pressure on both sides to get a deal done.
- Michael Gallup gets huge extension from Cowboys. With Amari Cooper on the move, the Cowboys wanted to make sure they were able to keep Gallup and that's exactly what will be happening. The receiver has agreed to a five-year deal worth $62.5 million that will keep Gallup in Dallas through the 2026 season.
- Patriots have a busy weekend. With free agency unofficially starting at noon today, the Patriots made sure to sneak in a few deals. Not only did they re-sign Devin McCourty to a one-year deal, but the team also got a two-year deal done with backup QB Brian Hoyer.
- Zach Ertz gets extension from Cardinals. The tight end thrived during his short stint in Arizona last season and the team has rewarded him by giving him a three-year extension. According to ESPN.com, the deal is worth a total of $31.65 million and includes $17.5 million in guaranteed money.
- Packers release Za'Darius Smith, sign Preston Smith to extension. The linebacker, who only played in one game last season due to injury, had a $27.6 million cap hit for 2022, so it only seemed like a matter of time before he was released and that release came Monday. Smith is one just five players in the NFL who has recorded at least 12.5 sacks in two of the past three seasons. The Packers didn't get rid of every Smith on their roster, though. Preston Smith agreed to a four-year extension worth up to $52.5 million, according to NFL.com.
