Two horses from trainer Brad Cox's loaded barn of Kentucky Derby contenders look to earn a spot in the Derby starting gate when they square off in the 2023 Rebel Stakes on Saturday at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, Ark. The 42-year-old Cox has never won the Rebel, but on Saturday he saddles the top two conteders for the race: Verifying, who's the 2-1 morning-line favorite, and Giant Mischief, who is second in the odds at 5-2. Reincarnate (7-2), Gun Pilot (8-1) and Red Route One (10-1) round out the top five in the 2023 Rebel Stakes odds. The winner of the race will receive 50 qualifying points toward the Derby, virtually guaranteeing himself a spot in the gate for the first leg of the Triple Crown.
Post time for the $1 million Rebel Stakes 2023 is 6:23 p.m. ET. With 11 lightly raced 3-year-olds set to enter the starting gate on Saturday, you'll want to see what SportsLine writer Gene Menez has to say before making any 2023 Rebel Stakes picks.
A former reporter and editor at Sports Illustrated, Menez covered an array of sports, including horse racing, for the magazine and its website for almost 14 years. Between 2010 and 2012, he served as SI's handicapper for the Triple Crown races and correctly predicted Super Saver to win the Kentucky Derby in 2010. In 2015, while writing for Sports on Earth, Menez accurately gave out the Kentucky Derby superfecta (American Pharoah, Firing Line, Dortmund and Frosted), which paid $1,268.20 for $2. Then in 2017, he tweeted out his Kentucky Derby picks, including Always Dreaming to win, and hit the Pick 4, which paid almost $6,900 on a $1 bet.
On Dec. 26, Menez hit the Pick 5 at Santa Anita Park for $798.70. And in the last five weeks he cashed in four straight races - the winner of the Lecomte Stakes ($172.50), the exacta in the Southwest Stakes ($468), the winner of the Holy Bull Stakes ($180) and the winner of the Sam F. Davis Stakes ($228).
Now, he has handicapped the 2023 Rebel Stakes lineup, made his picks and constructed his bets. Head to SportsLine to see them.
Top 2023 Rebel Stakes predictions
One surprise: Menez does not like Verifying, even though the horse is a major contender and the 2-1 morning-line favorite. A son of 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify, Verifying was one of the better 2-year-olds last year, with a second in the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes being the highlight of his season. In his only start of 2023, he crushed an allowance field by more than five lengths.
But Verifying faces a tougher task in the Rebel after being assigned the No. 1 post. "He drew the rail for the Rebel, which means he will either have to show elite speed that he has never shown before or work out a trip from the rail in an 11-horse field," Menez told SportsLine. "Neither is an optimal option, which is why I'm mostly playing against him." See who to back at SportsLine.
How to make 2023 Rebel Stakes picks
Menez's top pick is a double-digit longshot who "gets a favorable pace setup" on Saturday. He also is high on another runner who is coming off a "good effort." He is including these horses in his wagers, and so should you. He's sharing which horses to back only at SportsLine.
So what double-digit longshot wins the Rebel Stakes? What other horses are must-backs? And how has Menez constructed his wagers? Check out the latest Rebel Stakes odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Menez's picks for the Rebel Stakes, and find out.
2023 Rebel Stakes odds, post positions
| Prg # | Horse | Odds | Projection |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Verifying | 2-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 2 | Powerful | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 3 | Red Route One | 10-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 4 | Gun Pilot | 8-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 5 | Giant Mischief | 5-2 | SEE PICKS |
| 6 | Reincarnate | 7-2 | SEE PICKS |
| 7 | Confidence Game | 15-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 8 | Talladega | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 9 | Event Detail | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 10 | Bourbon Bash | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 11 | Frosted Departure | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
