The Week 1 NFL schedule has arrived and oddsmakers are expecting plenty of tight games. The latest Week 1 NFL odds from Caesars Sportsbook list all but one Sunday game with a spread within one score. Lions vs. 49ers (-8.5) is the only exception in the latest Week 1 NFL spreads. With a limited preseason, bettors have tough calls to make in the 15 games that remain this week, six of which have NFL Vegas spreads of a field goal or less. Which side should you back in tight games like Chargers vs. Washington (-1) and Colts vs. Seahawks (-3)? Is there value in any of the larger NFL betting lines like Bears vs. Rams (-7.5)? All of the Week 1 NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine's advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and predictions you need to make the best Week 1 NFL picks now.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,900 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six years ago. It went a sizzling 24-14 on top-rated NFL picks last season, returning more than $800. The model also enters the 2021 season on an incredible 120-78 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.
The model also ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past five years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Top Week 1 NFL predictions
One of the top Week 1 NFL predictions the model recommends: The 49ers (-8.5) cover the spread against the Lions. The line has moved up a point since the opener, but the model has still identified the Niners as the value side at this number. San Francisco has one of the best defensive fronts in the NFL, while Lions tackle Taylor Decker is on injured reserve due to a finger injury. That could lead to a mismatch in the trenches.
Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo will get the start for San Francisco, but SportsLine's model is also projecting rookie Trey Lance to get a few opportunities as well. Those quarterbacks combine for 300 yards of passing in the simulations, while a trio of 49ers running backs combine for 150 yards on the ground. The teams score 47 points, helping the over clear, while the Niners cover in more than 50 percent of simulations.
Another one of the top Week 1 NFL picks from the model: The Panthers (-4) cover as home favorites against the Jets. Sam Darnold gets an immediate shot at his former team and will have more weapons to work with in Carolina. Robby Anderson and D.J. Moore should help stretch the field. The return of versatile running back Christian McCaffrey, who missed much of 2020 with multiple injuries, also looms large.
New York has gotten out of the gates slow, going just 1-8 against the spread in its last nine September games. Both teams are making transitions, but New York rookie quarterback Zach Wilson is in the toughest spot, making his first career start on the road.
SportsLine's model projects that Wilson will barely clear 200 yards passing and throw an INT as Carolina covers in well over 50 percent of simulations. The under (45) also hits with room to spare.
How to make Week 1 NFL picks
The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in every other game on the Week 1 NFL schedule, and it's calling for a Super Bowl contender to go down hard. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.
So what NFL picks can you make with confidence? And which Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Check out the latest NFL odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned almost $7,900 since its inception, and find out.
Week 1 NFL odds (via Caesars)
Sunday, Sept. 12
Jets at Panthers (-4, 44.5)
Chargers at Washington (-1, 44.5)
49ers at Lions (+8.5, 46)
Monday, Sept. 13