We are officially on a losing streak, there's no getting around it. Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins lost their first-ever game as a favorite under Brian Flores, the Green Bay Packers completely choked against the Indianapolis Colts and Tom Brady fell apart yet again on a primetime stage against the Los Angeles Rams. Even in the games where we did pick the correct winners, they couldn't cover! Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers didn't cover against the lowly New York Jets and the Kansas City Chiefs barely scraped by the Las Vegas Raiders.
This week is exciting since we have three Thursday games to celebrate Thanksgiving, and I'm pretty confident in one of them. Below I will give you my top five picks of Week 12, followed by the rest of the bunch. Let's go ahead and jump in.
All NFL odds are via William Hill Sportsbook.
Top five picks record: 24-30-1
Overall ATS record: 82-72-5
This game was originally scheduled for Thursday night, but was moved to Sunday due to multiple COVID-19 cases.
One could make the argument that rescheduling this game will help the Ravens in a big way, but I'm not buying that. The Steelers are upset that their Week 12 matchup was rescheduled, and they are going to take out that anger on their rivals -- who will still be shorthanded. The Steelers have the best cover percentage in the NFL and are the first team to cover eight of their first 10 games since the New Orleans Saints and Chiefs did so in 2018. The offense has been explosive, but Pittsburgh's defense deserves credit as well. The Steelers rank first in pressures with 175, and Lamar Jackson averages a league-worst 5.5 yards per attempt when blitzed. Pittsburgh will sweep Baltimore this season.
Projected score: PIT -5.5, Steelers 28-21
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox)
Rookie phenom Joe Burrow tore the MCL and ACL in his left knee last week. He will now undergo reconstructive surgery, and rehab for 2021. Burrow was the main reason this Bengals team was competitive, as he threw for 300 or more yards a total of five times in his first nine games. That's tied for the second-most in NFL history by a rookie. With Burrow now sidelined, the Bengals will turn to Brandon Allen at quarterback after Ryan Finley completed just 3 of 10 passes for 30 yards and an interception. I don't think this is much of a discussion, you're going to have to ride with the Giants this week. With Burrow now gone for the year and Joe Mixon on IR, this Bengals team is going to be one of the worst in the league. The Giants aren't going to be competing for a Super Bowl this year, but they are a touchdown better than the Bengals.
Projected score: NYG -5.5, Giants 23-13
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox)
I feel as though the Patriots' loss to the Houston Texans was telling. New England supposedly has one of the best rushing attacks in the NFL, but they managed just 86 yards on the ground against the worst rushing defense in the league. The Cardinals offense can hurt you both on the ground and through the air, and they are proving that they are a well-rounded team. Their loss to the Seahawks was big when it comes to the race in the NFC West, but that was a matchup that really could have gone either way. Sorry, but I'm not buying the Patriots unless they are playing at home in a monsoon -- and I don't think there's any rain in the forecast on Sunday.
Projected score: AZ -2.5, Cardinals 27-20
Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)
Is Brady OK? He has thrown some of the worst interceptions I have seen this season. Plus, he can't throw the deep ball -- I felt like I was watching the Chicago Bears offense on Monday night. According to Next Gen Stats, Brady is 0-19 on deep passes (20-plus air yards) in his last four games with a 0.0 passer rating. Going back to Week 5, Brady is 3-36 on deep passes -- and all three of those completions came in one game against the Raiders. The Chiefs on the other hand are clearly one of the best teams in the league and Mahomes is now the MVP frontrunner. This isn't a huge spread, so I'm taking Kansas City to cover.
Projected score: KC -3.5, Chiefs 28-24
Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)
The Seahawks finally got back into the win column last week after a two-game skid, and there's a possibility they could be rounding the corner. A week after the "Hail Murray," the Seahawks defense stood up Kyler Murray on the last drive of the game, and new addition Carlos Dunlap made the game-winning sack. When you look at the Seahawks' remaining schedule, there's a possibility they could win their last six games. Russell Wilson knows he needs to make every win count in this crowded division. As for the Eagles, they are a mess. Carson Wentz is struggling and they have lost their last two games coming out of their bye week. I like Seattle this week, and lay the points.
Projected score: SEA -5.5, Seahawks 31-24
Other Week 11 picks
Lions (+3) 23-21 over Texans
Cowboys (-3) 30-24 over Washington
Bills (-5.5) 38-30 over Chargers
Titans (+3.5) 30-28 over Colts
Dolphins 27-21 over Jets (+7)
Browns (-6.5) 27-20 over Jaguars
Vikings 24-21 over Panthers (+4)
Raiders (-3) 35-27 over Falcons
Saints (-15.5) 28-10 over Broncos*
Rams (-7) 33-23 over 49ers
Packers 31-26 over Bears (+8.5)
*Jordan originally had Broncos +5.5, but was forced to switch after all Broncos quarterbacks were ruled out due to being ruled as close contacts of COVID-19.