We had a great Week 5, as our picks went 9-2 against the spread. This is not time to celebrate, however, as Week 6 appears to be the toughest challenge we have faced so far this season. According to William Hill Sportsbook, only one team is favored by double digits this week, and seven games have a favorite projected to win by three or less points. It's easy to see why, as we have some incredible matchups this week. Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers travel to take on Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Teddy Bridgewater and the Carolina Panthers try to keep their win streak alive against the Chicago Bears' tough defense and we get to figure out if the Cleveland Browns are a real threat in the AFC North, as they get a chance to take down the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Below, I will give you my top five picks of the week, followed by the rest of the bunch for what should be an entertaining Week 6.
Who'll win and cover in Week 6? Pete Prisco, R.J. White and SportsLine's Kenny White join host Will Brinson to break down every game on the Pick Six Podcast; listen below and be sure to subscribe for daily NFL goodness.
All odds courtesy of William Hill Sportsbook.
Top five picks record: 14-11
Overall ATS record: 44-28-2
Washington Football Team at New York Giants
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox)
Point spread: Giants -2.5
This has to be the worst game of the week, so why not make it interesting by throwing money on it? Despite being 0-5, the Giants have actually covered the spread three times this season -- including last week against the Dallas Cowboys. As for Washington, they have a new quarterback in Kyle Allen and have lost their last four games -- including the last two by 20 or more points. You have to wonder what kind of effect benching Dwayne Haskins had on the locker room, because the offensive line looked worse than they had all season against the Los Angeles Rams in Week 5. Allen and Alex Smith were sacked a combined eight times while Washington recorded just 38 rushing yards.
The pick: Giants 21-17
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Point spread: Titans -3
No practice, no problem! A COVID-19 outbreak in Nashville didn't seem to disrupt the Titans in Week 5 despite the fact that they were missing several important players, as they downed the Buffalo Bills, 42-16. Ryan Tannehill accounted for four total touchdowns and it feels like people are finally waking up to the fact that he may be one of the better signal-callers in the NFL. Tannehill has won 13 games since becoming Tennessee's starter last season (including playoffs), and that is tied with Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson and Rodgers for the most in that span. If they can beat a talented Bills team by 26, I think they can beat a one-win Texans team by four points.
The pick: Titans 35-21
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Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS)
Point spread: Dolphins -9.5
The Jets are the third team in the last 25 seasons to lose each of their first five games by two possessions, and are officially on 0-16 watch. On Tuesday, the Jets released former star running back Le'Veon Bell after they failed to find a trade partner. Bell signed a four-year, $52 million contract with the Jets that included $27 million guaranteed during the 2019 offseason, so New York is left with $15 million of dead cap space for this year and $4 million in 2021. Additionally, it appears Joe Flacco will be starting again this week for the injured Sam Darnold. Everything has gone wrong for the Jets this season, while on the flip side, the Dolphins appear to be improving.
After the Dolphins' loss to the Seattle Seahawks in Week 4, people started to wonder when Tua Tagovailoa would take over as Miami's starting quarterback. Ryan Fitzpatrick was given another chance to start on Sunday against the San Francisco 49ers, and he made the most of his opportunity with a monster performance in a 43-17 victory. The defense as a unit was the true X-factor in this matchup, however, as they sacked the 49ers quarterbacks a total of five times and forced three turnovers. We saw the Dolphins improve as the year went on last season, and that might be something that happens this year as well.
The pick: Dolphins 31-13
Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox)
Point spread: PICK
This line has witnessed a good amount of movement, but may teeter back in favor of the Packers in the coming days. I hope you grabbed GB +2.5 last week, but no, I'm still not fading this line move. The Packers are the only team that is perfect against the spread this season and both Brady and Buccaneers head coach Bruce Arians have struggled against the spread vs. winning teams in recent years. Dating back to 2018, Brady has failed to cover his last eight starts against teams that were multiple games above .500. Since last season, Brady is 1-6-1 against the spread vs. teams above .500, which is the worst mark in the NFL. The Packers have clearly been the more consistent team thus far, and they had a bye week to prepare for this matchup.
The pick: Packers 28-24
Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Point spread: Cardinals -2
The Cardinals ended a two-game skid with a 20-point win over the lowly Jets, while the Cowboys are hitching their wagon to Andy Dalton after Dak Prescott suffered a compound fracture of his right ankle. It's hard to guess what the Cowboys' offense is going to look like with Dalton under center, but this team has yet to cover the spread in their first five games. That hasn't happened for the Cowboys since 1989 -- when they started 0-6 against the spread. Kyler Murray is 7-2-2 against the spread on the road in his career, which marks the third-best cover percentage this century with a minimum of 10 starts. Both of these defenses are very bad, but I'm going to place my faith in the team that wasn't forced to make a change under center this week.
The pick: Cardinals 35-30
Other Week 6 picks
Ravens (-7.5) 28-20 over Eagles
Steelers (-3) 30-24 over Browns
Panthers (-1.5) 27-24 over Bears
Patriots 23-21 over Broncos (+10)
Colts 20-17 over Bengals (+8)
Falcons (+4) 33-30 over Vikings
Lions (-3) 27-21 over Jaguars
Rams (-3.5) 29-24 over 49ers
Chiefs (-3.5) 35-30 over Bills