It's crunch time now for teams on the bubble to make the NCAA Tournament. The final weekend of the regular season is upon us. Some bubble teams are already in their conference tournaments. The bubble may not be as big as it used to be, but the games are more important than ever.
Before we look at the weekend's Bubble Watch lets look at highlights from some of the noteworthy bubble teams.
Let's start with Michigan. The Wolverines lost at home to Iowa 82-71 on Thursday, completing a road-and-road split with the Hawkeyes.
Michigan's climb back into the field is going to be tough. The Wolverines are now 16-13 overall. They finish at Ohio State on Sunday before the Big Ten Tournament. If they beat Ohio State, then they need at least one win in the conference tournament to finish four games above .500. If they lose Saturday, they need three wins in the Big Ten Tournament. That is probably asking too much.
Four games above .500 has been the historic minimum standard to get an at-large bid, although that is not specific criteria. Only one team in a pre-pandemic bracket has received a bid with a worse record. Georgia in 2001 was 16-14 and played a schedule nobody has ever matched before or since. In today's terminology, 27 of their 30 games were against Quad 1-2 teams.
And finishing four games above .500 does not guarantee anything.
Thursday was also a rough night for Oregon, which got stomped by Washington. Oregon is now 17-12 overall but 11-12 against the top three quadrants. Being below .500 against Quads 1-3 is usually not good enough to make the field. Oregon still has a game at Washington State before the Pac-12 Tournament.
At least Memphis won! The Tigers beat South Florida to keep their hopes alive. Memphis hosts Houston on Sunday looking for the season sweep of the Cougars.
Here are the "Last four in" and "First four out" of the field of 68 followed by all the bubble teams in action Saturday. All times Eastern
| Last Four In | Record | NET |
|---|---|---|
| Memphis | 18-9 | 42 |
| Florida | 19-11 | 52 |
| VCU | 21-7 | 49 |
| Wake Forest | 23-8 | 35 |
| First Four Out | Record | NET |
| North Carolina | 22-8 | 38 |
| Michigan | 16-13 | 34 |
| Rutgers | 17-12 | 75 |
| Indiana | 18-11 | 45 |
Check out all the teams on Palm's Bubble Watch, the field of the 68 and the entire bracket on the Bracketology hub
Bubble teams in action Saturday
| at Dayton, 12:30 p.m. | USA, fuboTV (Try for free) -- Davidson is looking to finish off an outright A-10 championship, but will have to do so against a tough opponent on the road. Dayton would be part of the bubble conversation as well if not for a three-game losing streak to Quad 4 teams in November. A loss here damages Davidson, but it is not necessarily going to knock the Wildcats out. | |
| at Syracuse, 1 p.m. | ESPNU, fuboTV (Try for free) -- Miami continued its road excellence earlier this week with a win at Boston College . The Canes are now 10-5 at home, but 11-4 away. Miami has an abundance of Quad 2 and 3 losses and would be well advised not to add another one. | |
| at Purdue, 2 p.m. | ESPN, fuboTV (Try for free) -- Indiana kicked one away to Rutgers earlier this week and now the Hoosiers have a problem. They are just a .500 team against the top three quadrants, have a poor nonconference schedule and a bad record away from home. The Boilermakers will be looking to take out some frustration on their rivals, but IU really needs this one to take some pressure off the Big Ten Tournament. | |
| vs. Kentucky, 2 p.m. | CBS, CBSSports.com, CBS Sports App (Free) -- Florida is in contention for a spot in the NCAA Tournament in no small part because of a home win over Auburn . The Gators hung around for a half or so at Kentucky a few week ago, but they need to do better than that at home. Florida will likely need to do some work in the SEC Tournament regardless of this result, but how much will depend on that. | |
| at Clemson, 2 p.m. -- Welcome to the bubble, Virginia Tech . The Hokies have wins at Miami and at home to Notre Dame , but is just 1-5 vs Quad 1 teams and 5-9 vs the top two quadrants. They also have a couple of bad losses. They certainly cannot afford a loss to the Tigers or their stay on the bubble will be short lived. | |
| vs. Northern Iowa in MVC Tournament, 3:30 p.m. | CBS Sports Network -- -- The Ramblers will face Northern Iowa, the MVC Tournament's top seed. UNI is another opponent that borders between Quads 2 and 3. This one is must win as well. | |
| at Saint Louis, 4 p.m. | ESPN2, fuboTV (Try for free) -- VCU has crept onto the bottom of the bracket thanks to a strong run of play. The Rams have won 11 of their last 12, which included a win over league leader Davidson and most recently, a blowout of St. Bonaventure . They need to keep it going on the road against the Billikens. | |
| at Washington State, 4 p.m. | CBS, CBSSports.com, CBS Sports App (Free) -- Oregon took an ugly loss at Washington on Thursday night and now needs to win this or the Ducks are done as a potential at-large team. It's as simple as that. | |
| at Duke, 6 p.m. | ESPN, fuboTV (Try for free) -- With all the other action on Saturday, this game may be flying under the radar, but it is vital to North Carolina's tournament hopes. UNC's biggest problem has been a lack of quality wins despite getting several games against such teams. The Tar Heels are just 1-7 against Quad 1 opposition with the win coming at Virginia Tech. The good news is that they only have one loss outside that group. The bad news is it came at home to Pitt. UNC has to pick up quality wins and this is its best chance to do it before the ACC Tournament. | |
| vs. Georgetown, 7 p.m. | FS1, fuboTV (Try for free) -- Xavier has lost seven of its last eight games and is in danger of completely bottoming out of the NCAA Tournament picture. Included in those seven losses are a sweep at the hands of St. John's and a home loss to DePaul . Georgetown has yet to win a Big East game. Xavier may not make the NCAA Tournament if it provides the Hoyas with that first win. | |
| at Nevada, 10:30 p.m. | CBS Sports Network -- The Aztecs have been creeping up the bracket as they continue to win. They still do not have a loss outside of Quad 1, but a loss to the Wolfpack would change that. San Diego State comes off the good side bubble with a win. | |
| vs. BYU in WCC Tournament, 10:30 p.m. | ESPN2, fuboTV (Try for free) -- USF will face the Cougars, an 85-60 winner vs. Loyola-Marymount in the second round of the WCC Tournament. A loss to BYU would hurt, of course, but would not necessarily eliminate them from NCAA tournament contention. | |
Note – All references to NCAA tournament selection records and trends refer only to pre-pandemic tournaments. Due to shortened schedules and a relatively small number of non-conference games in 2021, those rankings were not reliable enough to be considered.