Welcome to the latest installment of our weekly series looking at the top 10 NCAA tournament resumes. Itâs now February and getting down to the home stretch of the season. Even still, no team or even a small group of teams has separated itself from the pack. This list figures to remain pretty fluid over the next month. Donât be surprised if we have another chaotic week like the one at the end of January sometime before the season ends.
We now have the benefit of seeing what the selection committee thought of these teams as of February 11th. Here is how things stand as of games through Feb 21.
Best wins: North Carolina, vs Florida, at Virginia, at Notre Dame
Losses: vs Kansas, at Louisville, at Florida State, at Virginia Tech, NC State
Duke is coming on strong, sort of. The Blue Devils have won seven in a row, but at times, seem to be playing to the level of their competition. However, winning is winning. We will ave a much better idea about this team when they finish with three out of four on the road, and all four games will be tough -- particularly the home date with Florida State and the regular-season finale at North Carolina. If the Blue Devils get things figured out through this stretch, watch out come March. They were the preseason No. 1 for a reason.
Best Wins: Duke, Florida, Louisville, Notre Dame, at Virginia
Losses: at Georgia Tech, at North Carolina, at Notre Dame, at Syracuse, at Pitt, vs. Temple
Only Villanova has as many top-25 and top-50 wins as the Seminoles. Their biggest problem has been mediocre play away from home for a team of this quality. Yes, they won at Virginia, but are just 5-5 outside of Tallahassee. Until this team learns how to win games away from home (that date at Duke is a monster opportunity), they will probably keep sliding down the bracket.
Losses: vs Butler, vs Gonzaga, at Oregon
Arizona has been good away from home, with four of its top-five wins coming outside of Tucson. The blowout loss at Oregon why the Ducks are one slot ahead at this point. That is not an unimportant distinction. The top rated Pac-12 team is very likely to be placed in the West Regional in San Jose, which would block any other league team that is in the top 16 from that region. Arizona may get a chance to pass Oregon anyway because the Wildcats have home games coming up with the LA teams, which would both be quality wins.
Best wins: Arizona, UCLA, USC twice
Losses: at Baylor, at UCLA, vs Georgetown, at Colorado
The Ducks are ahead of Arizona despite having more, and worse, losses, and a worse strength of schedule. Again, this is all about their annihilation of Arizona in their one head-to-head meeting of the season. Of course, they may play each other again in the Pac-12 tournament. Oregon will finish the regular season with three road games, but figure to be comfortably favored in each of them.
Best wins: Kentucky, Duke, Purdue
Losses: vs Baylor, at Florida State, at Notre Dame, Virginia twice
The Cards have a few pretty good wins, but they have all come at home. They will get a chance to do something about that on Wednesday in Chapel Hill. There isnât anything resembling a bad loss here, and they were competitive in most of those games, but Virginia gives Louisville fits. Louisville has also played one of the toughest overall schedules. A win over UNC and Louisville will get serious consideration for a No. 1 seed.
Best wins: Florida State, Virginia, vs Wisconsin, Notre Dame
Losses: at Duke, at Georgia Tech, at Indiana, vs Kentucky, at Miami
North Carolina looked very dominant against Virginia and is nipping at Baylorâs heels for the final No. 1 seed. A win on Wednesday over Louisville may be enough to make the jump to the top line of the bracket. The Tar Heels still have more difficult games upcoming, including rematches with Duke and Virginia, so if they do make a charge to the top, staying there will not be easy.
Best wins: vs. Louisville, Xavier, Oregon
Losses: Kansas twice, at West Virginia, Kansas State at Texas Tech
Baylor has eight RPI top-50 wins, tied for the most of any team, and all of those wins have come over teams in the current bracket. Their inability to beat Kansas is frustrating, but if the Bears end up not being a No. 1 seed, it will be more because of the losses at home to Kansas State and at Texas Tech than the ones to Kansas. The line between Baylor and UNC is razor thin.
Best wins: vs. Florida, vs. Arizona, St Maryâs twice
Losses: None
Gonzaga, the No. 1 team in the AP Top 25, has played a decent schedule and has yet to lose, but that strength of schedule will fall considerably as conference play goes on. The Zagsâ long-term seeding prospects will rely largely on how Florida and Arizona finish the year. They also have a win over Iowa State, which is currently in the bracket. A strong finish by the Cyclones would help also. Gonzaga is dependent on St. Maryâs too. They need to beat the Gaels three times, but also need St. Maryâs to avoid bad losses in the league so that the quality of those wins is as high as possible. I do not think Gonzaga will fall off of the top line if it is undefeated at the end of the season, but it looks like the committee is reluctant to make them the overall No. 1, at least for now.
Best wins: Baylor twice, vs. Duke, at Kentucky, West Virginia
Losses: vs. Indiana, at West Virginia, Iowa State
While it was not as dramatic as the comeback win over West Virginia, Kansas came from behind late to win at Baylor and complete that season sweep. Kansas doesnât have as many top -0 wins as some of the teams they are competing with for the top line, but their best wins measure up with almost anybody. The Jayhawks are in a good position to finish as the overall No. 1 seed should Villanova falter.
Best wins: At Creighton, At Purdue, vs. Notre Dame, Virginia, Xavier twice
Losses: at Butler, Marquette
The defending champions have six RPI top-25 wins and nine top-50 wins, which is more than anyone else except for Florida State. Other than Gonzaga, there has been no more consistent team. They have been just about as good on the road as at home, with six of their top 50 wins coming away from home. With the schedule the Wildcats have left, it may be difficult to dethrone them from the top spot in the bracket. Villanova is looking to become the first defending champion to be the overall No. 1 seed the following year.
