The Kansas City Chiefs are 8-1 and eager to improve their position in the NFL playoff picture. First, they need to get past the division-rival Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday Night Football. Kansas City opened as a touchdown favorite, but is now laying 8.5 in the latest Week 11 NFL odds from William Hill Sportsbook. Should you back Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs with your NFL picks, or should you look elsewhere with your NFL bets?
Quarterback Drew Brees (ribs) landed on injured reserve this week, leaving the New Orleans Saints to start Taysom Hill or Jameis Winston. After opening as seven-point favorites, the Saints are now favored by only 3.5 in the latest NFL spreads. All of the Week 11 NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine's advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and predictions you need to make the best Week 11 NFL picks now.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up over $7,800 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception five-plus years ago.
It's a sizzling 18-9 on top-rated NFL picks this season, already returning over $800. The model enters Week 11 on an incredible 114-73 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. Additionally, the model also ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch in three of the past four years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 95 percent of CBS Sports office pool players three times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Top NFL predictions for Week 11
One of the top Week 11 NFL picks the model recommends: the Steelers (-10.5) cover as road favorites against the Jaguars. The undefeated Steelers are 5-0 against the spread in their last five games on grass, while the road team is 5-0-1 in the last six games in the Steelers vs. Jaguars series.
SportsLine's model projects that Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger will dominate Jaguars counterpart Jake Luton on the stat sheet, while Steelers running back James Conner will outduel Jaguars back James Robinson. The model says Pittsburgh covers in over 60 percent of simulations, and the under (46) hits well over 50 percent of the time.
Another one of the top Week 11 NFL predictions from the model: The Chargers (-9.5) cover at home against the New York Jets. This line opened at -10 and has moved down a key point, boosting L.A.'s chances of covering.
The model has considered that New York has struggled mightily on offense, ranking last in the NFL in total offense (266 yards per game) and scoring offense (13.4 points per game).
With quarterback Sam Darnold (shoulder) out again, the Jets don't reach 20 points in the simulations, opening the door for Los Angeles, which has averaged 29 points per game in its last six outings, to pick up a double-digit win. Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert throws for well over 300 yards and two touchdowns as Los Angeles covers in more than 50 percent of simulations. Those numbers also help push the game over the total (46).
How to make Week 11 NFL picks
The model has also made the call on every other game on the Week 11 NFL schedule, and has identified a Super Bowl contender that goes down hard. You can only get every pick for every game here.
What NFL picks can you make with confidence in Week 11? And which Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Check out the latest NFL odds from William Hill below and then visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are covering in more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that is up over $7,800 on its top-rated NFL picks.
NFL odds, matchups for Week 11
Sunday, Nov. 22
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Washington Football Team (-1, 46.5)
New York Jets vs. Los Angeles Chargers (-9.5, 46)
Monday, Nov. 23