NFL odds, picks, predictions for Week 1, 2020: Advanced computer model loving Bears, 49ers

SportsLine's computer model simulated every Week 1 NFL game 10,000 times with surprising results.

By CBS Sports Staff

Sep 13, 2020 at 12:13 pm ET • 3 min read

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NFL odds are on the move as kickoffs approach. In Atlanta, the Falcons are one-point favorites over the Seahawks in the latest NFL spreads from William Hill after opening as one-point underdogs. In Carolina, the visiting Raiders opened as 1.5-point favorites, but the line has since doubled to a field goal. Wide receiver Kenny Golladay (hamstring) is inactive for the Lions, who are still 2.5-point favorites over the NFC North rival Bears in the latest NFL betting lines, up a point from the opener.

On Sunday Night Football, the Cowboys vs. Rams line opened at Dallas -2.5, but betting on L.A. has reduced the spread to -2. All of the Week 1 NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine's advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and predictions you need to make the best Week 1 NFL picks now.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up over $7,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception five years ago.

It also enters the 2020 NFL season on an incredible 96-65 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. The model ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch in three of the past four years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 95 percent of CBS Sports office pool players three times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it has examined the latest Week 1 NFL odds and lines, simulated every snap, and its predictions are in. Head to SportsLine now to see them all.

Top NFL predictions for Week 1

One of the top Week 1 NFL predictions the model recommends: The Bears (+2.5) cover with room to spare on the road against the Lions. This line opened at Detroit -1.5, but has moved up 1.5 points since, creating even more value on Chicago.

The Bears struggled offensively, but ranked fourth in the league in scoring defense in 2019 (18.6) in 2019. Chicago is also 5-2-1 against the spread in its last eight meetings against Detroit and on a 9-4 run against the spread versus NFC North foes. SportsLine's model says Chicago covers in over 50 percent of simulations, while the under (42) also brings plenty of value because that hits well over 60 percent of the time.

Another one of the Week 1 NFL picks from the model: The 49ers (-7) cover as home favorites against the Cardinals. Kyler Murray and the Cardinals look prepared to take a step forward in Year Two under Kliff Kingsbury, while the offseason addition of DeAndre Hopkins certainly adds to the allure. However, the 49ers' defense is simply too strong and San Francisco's rushing attack is a perfect compliment.

The 49ers ranked second in the NFL in total defense in 2019 and first against the pass. They allowed just 4.8 net yards per pass attempt thanks to the top defensive front in the league and an experienced and capable secondary led by Richard Sherman.

SportsLine's model predicts that Murray is sacked four times and the 49ers force two turnovers. San Francisco covers in well over 50 percent of simulations, while the under (48) also hits over half the time.

How to make Week 1 NFL picks

The model also has a strong pick for Tom Brady's debut with the Buccaneers against the Saints, and is calling for a favored Super Bowl contender to go down hard in an upset this week. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.

What NFL picks can you make with confidence in Week 1? And which Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Check out the latest NFL odds below and then visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that is up over $7,000 on its top-rated NFL picks.