Picking NFL games is darn near impossible this season.
It's maddening trying to figure out who will win week in and week out in a league of parity.
Take the Oakland Raiders. They've lost four consecutive games to drop to 2-4 heading into an enormous AFC West game Thursday night with the Kansas City Chiefs.
Commitment to excrement is back.
This is a team some had representing the AFC in the Super Bowl after the impressive 2016 season, one that was derailed by a season-ending injury to quarterback Derek Carr in Week 16.
Carr played in Sunday's loss to the Chargers after missing a week with a bad back this season, but he hasn't looked like the same quarterback he was a year ago. Receiver Amari Cooper isn't doing much of anything and the defense has been terrible.
If the Raiders lose Thursday, those Super dreams will be vanishing. But in this wacky season, expect them to win. I do. The Chiefs have won five consecutive games against the Raiders, but in this unpredictable year I am bucking the trend.
Kansas City (5-1) at Oakland (2-4)
Thursday, 8:25 p.m. ET (CBS)
The Raiders are reeling, losing four consecutive games. But there is too much talent for this team to be out of the race in early November. The Chiefs may have won five straight against the Raiders, but I think this is a spot where the Raiders get them. Carr has his best game of the season here.
Pick: Raiders 27, Chiefs 23 (RESULT: Raiders 31, Chiefs 30)
Tampa Bay (2-3) at Buffalo (3-2)
1 p.m. ET (Fox)
The Bucs are playing consecutive road games, which is tough. But more troubling than that is they haven't played well and Jameis Winston is banged up. The Bills are coming off a bye, so they will be rested. That matters. Buffalo takes it in a close one.
Pick: Bills 26, Bucs 24
Carolina (4-2) at Chicago Bears (2-4)
1 p.m. ET (Fox)
The Panthers will have been off for 10 days when they kick this off, but they are coming off a disappointing showing against the Eagles. That's behind them, though, and the Bears aren't the Eagles. Mitch Trubisky will struggle in his second home start. Panthers and Cam Newton get back on track.
Pick: Panthers 28, Bears 20
Tennessee (3-3) at Cleveland (0-6)
1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Watch out here, Titans. Yes, I think the Browns can keep this close. The Titans are playing on a short week with a bad defense. If the Browns go back to DeShone KIzer at quarterback, he might have some success. Titans win a close one.
Pick: Titans 23, Browns 20
New Orleans (3-2) at Green Bay (4-2)
1 p.m. ET (Fox)
This will be Brett Hundley's first NFL start for the injured Aaron Rodgers for Green Bay. That's always tough, but at least this week he will have prep time, which he didn't have last week. Even though the Saints defense is playing better, I think Hundley will do a solid job here. The Saints aren't the same offense outside, and I think the Green Bay defense plays better here. Hundley wins it.
Pick: Packers 23, Saints 16
Jacksonville (3-3) at Indianapolis (2-4)
1 p.m. ET (CBS)
The Jaguars don't know how to handle prosperity, but they lost last week. That means they win this week. That's the way it's gone this season. The Colts have been competitive with Jacoby Brissett, but he hasn't played a defense like this one. Jaguars take it.
Pick: Jaguars 20, Colts 13
Arizona (3-3) vs. Los Angeles Rams (4-2)
at Twickenham, England, 1 p.m. ET (Fox)
The Rams stayed on the East Coast after beating the Jaguars, while the Cardinals traveled to England Monday. The Rams are playing good football and the defense is getting better by the week. Even so, I think the Arizona passing game will get the best of them in this one. Upset special.
Pick: Cardinals 30, Rams 20
New York Jets (3-3) at Miami (3-2)
1 p.m. ET (Fox)
The Dolphins rallied to beat the Falcons last week, and that could give them some much needed momentum. The Jets competed against the Patriots, but the Miami defense is playing at a high level. They will contain the Jets offense in this one. Dolphins win it.
Pick: Dolphins 23, Jets 13
Baltimore (3-3) at Minnesota (4-2)
1 p.m. ET (CBS)
The Vikings are playing good defense, which is a bad thing for a Ravens offense that isn't skilled. This should be a low-scoring affair, but Minnesota will find a way to win at home thanks to the defense.
Pick: Vikings 17, Ravens 13
Cincinnati (2-3) at Pittsburgh (4-2)
4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)
The Bengals are coming off the bye, and won two straight before it. The Steelers seemed to right things by winning at Kansas City last week. They fed Le'Veon Bell and I think they will do it in this one as well. The Steelers take it.
Pick: Steelers 27, Bengals 20
Dallas (2-3) at San Francisco (0-6)
4:05 p.m. ET (Fox)
The Cowboys are coming off their bye and might not have Ezekiel Elliott. The 49ers haven't won, but they've played five close games. They will play another here as rookie C.J. Beathard makes his first NFL start at quarterback. Cowboys win a close one.
Pick: Cowboys 23, 49ers 19
Denver (3-2) at Los Angeles Chargers (2-4)
4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)
The Broncos are banged up, including starting quarterback Trevor Siemian. That will put even more pressure on a good defense. The Chargers have won two straight, and I think they will keep it rolling here. Their defense comes up with a big day.
Pick: Chargers 17, Broncos 16
Seattle (3-2) at New York Giants (1-5)
4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)
The Seahawks are coming off a bye, but this is a long trip. The Giants played well in upsetting the Broncos Sunday night, getting the run game going. Seattle is a bit banged up on defense, which helps. Even so, Seattle will find a way to win a close one.
Pick: Seahawks 20, Giants 17
Atlanta (3-2) at New England (4-2)
8:30 p.m. ET (NBC)
This is a rematch of the Super Bowl last February when the Patriots rallied from 28-3 down to win it. They did so behind the arm of Tom Brady and I expect that to be the game plan here. Atlanta hasn't been the same on offense this season, but the Patriots defense is the perfect tonic for any ailing offense. Just ask Cam Newton from a few weeks ago. The Falcons score a bunch here and pull of the upset.
Pick: Falcons 33, Patriots 30
Washington (3-2) at Philadelphia (5-1)
8:30 p.m. ET (Monday, ESPN)
The Eagles are the class of the NFC right now and can put a strong hold on the NFC East with a win here. They beat the Redskins in Week One on the road, and I think they will get them again. Their pass rush gets all over Kirk Cousins.
Pick: Eagles 24, Redskins 17
