One down, 161 to go.
It's important to keep perspective, right? In the grand scheme of things, what happens on Opening Day is merely a drop in the bucket, of no more significance than what happens on a random day in June. But because of the outsized attention, of everyone tuning in for Game 1 of 162, what might go unnoticed on that random June day is sure to be analyzed to death on this one.
We know better, and yet we do it anyway. And I'm no different. Here are seven potentially meaningful developments from Opening Day.
1. Garrett Crochet might really be an ace
Most of us offered some snide remark or another when the White Sox named the 24-year-old lefty their Opening Day starter toward the end of spring training. He had never started a game as a professional, majors or minors, and made only a handful of starts in college. So him lasting six innings Thursday, while looking as good as he did was about as favorable of an outcome as anyone could have hoped for.
Garrett Crochet's Disgusting Stuff. pic.twitter.com/JI7Z7b5TJ5
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 28, 2024
In all, Crochet allowed one run on five hits with eight strikeouts and no walks, carrying over the improved control from spring training. His fastball peaked at 99.8 mph and somehow looked even more overpowering than that. He doesn't throw much else other than a slider, but it's a weapon in its own right. Such a limited arsenal can work in the modern game if the pitches are effective enough, so Crochet genuinely could have staying power, even acknowledging that his innings will likely be limited at some point. If there's any player to pick up based on what happened on Opening Day, he's the one.
2. Shane Bieber might be an ace again
We heard this offseason about the work the former Cy Young winner put in at Driveline Baseball, and we saw the velocity gains this spring. But spring training is spring training. The real test of whether or not Bieber is back would come during the regular season. Well, now we've reached the regular season, and he couldn't have responded more affirmatively than this:
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Sure, he was facing the Athletics, and yes, his average fastball velocity was up "only" 1 mph from last year, which was a little less than advertised. But he also worked with Driveline on improving the shape of his pitches, so it's worth noting that his secondary stuff was absolute filth in this start. Most notably, 10 of his 18 swinging strikes came on his cutter, which was more of a pitch-to-contact offering for him last year. We'll need to see a bigger sample (and a tougher opponent) to declare a final verdict on Bieber, but this redemption tour may really be happening.
3. The Tigers might have a new closer
With a one-run lead and a fully rested bullpen for Opening Day, who else would the Tigers call on for the save but ... Jason Foley? Alex Lange was presumed to be the closer and presumed to be available, but he was on thin ice throughout last season, mostly because he struggled to throw strikes. Perhaps A.J. Hinch isn't content with the status quo. Of course, it helps when Foley looks like this:
Jason Foley's Vicious Sinkers. 😳 pic.twitter.com/eET4JEhfWL
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 28, 2024
That's a sinker topping triple digits right there, and it's a bit reminiscent of Emmanuel Clase -- which is to say that even if Foley doesn't project for as many strikeouts as the typical closer, the contact he does allow would be of the most harmless variety.
Tony Santillan got the first save for the Reds in 2022, and it didn't amount to anything. Julian Merryweather got the first two saves for the Blue Jays in 2021, and it didn't amount to anything. Maybe this save doesn't amount to anything for Foley either. But as good as he looked in recording it and as shaky as Lange has always been, I think we need to be open to the possibility of a switcheroo. I'm not saying you drop Lange for Foley, but you probably need to handcuff him to Foley. And I'd prefer to speculate on Foley than any of the Brewers trio right now.
4. More closer 'clarity'
Foley's surprise save was one of several closer developments from Thursday. Others include ...
- Griffin Jax got the first save for the Twins, with Brock Stewart working a scoreless eighth. It went so smoothly that manager Rocco Baldelli might stick with it for now, but he was inclined toward more of a committee approach before Jhoan Duran emerged as the top guy last year. Advantage Jax for sure, but I wouldn't be so quick to move on from Stewart in leagues where saves are scarce.
- David Bednar didn't pitch in a game that went to extra innings, and Jose Hernandez ended up getting the save for the Pirates. Bednar missed much of spring training with a lat issue but isn't on the IL to begin the year. Manager Derek Shelton said after the game that the All-Star closer was unavailable because he's still rehabbing the injury, but the Pirates must think he's close to have kept him on the active roster. Aroldis Chapman remains the backup plan, despite Hernandez's save.
- Adbert Alzolay, who new manager Craig Counsell refused to confirm as the closer this spring, indeed entered for a save chance Thursday against the Rangers but coughed it up on a home run to Travis Jankowski. Hector Neris remains the likeliest alternative, though until Counsell hints otherwise, Alzolay remains the top choice.
- Jose Leclerc, who manager Bruce Bochy hesitated to name the closer despite leaning on him heavily during the World Series run last year, failed to preserve a tie in the ninth inning Thursday, issuing two walks. His likeliest alternative, David Robertson, also walked two in his one inning of work.
- Finally, Michael Kopech, who has been mentioned as one possible closer candidate for the White Sox, worked the eighth inning with the team trailing by a run. He allowed one hit, issued a walk and hit batter, so it was far from a clean inning. Jordan Leasure remains the likeliest alternative there.
5. Injuries are still going to happen
There's a certain type of Fantasy Baseball player who insists on waiting until the last possible minute to draft so that he can be sure he doesn't wind up with any injured players. Well, guess what? There's no moratorium for injuries once spring training ends. They keep happening, every day, all throughout the season, and Opening Day was no exception.
The two big losses were Justin Steele (hamstring) and Royce Lewis (quadriceps), and both were particularly frustrating. Steele was cruising against a tough Rangers lineup. Lewis had already homered. We already know Steels is going on the IL. There's a good chance Lewis is, too. Fortunately for those who lost Steele, the waiver wire is replete with interesting starting pitcher options, not the least of which is Garrett Crochet. For Lewis, there probably is no miracle alternative (Colt Keith? Michael Busch?), though if prospect Brooks Lee ends up getting the call, he'll be of some interest.
6. Spring training is most certainly over
Every year, we say that spring training stats don't matter, and every year, we can't help but obsess over them. Maybe they're useful for identifying potential breakout candidates like Garrett Crochet, but when you see someone like Corbin Burnes serving up 12 earned runs and five home runs in just 16 innings (and there are no correlating concerns having to do with velocity or health), you can bet that he's a-OK. Clearly, the lights came on for his first regular season start:
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Same goes for Logan Webb, who allowed 26 earned runs in 21 1/3 innings this spring.
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Even Jake Burger, who looked like he might be reverting to his old strikeout-prone ways, having whiffed 17 times in 47 plate appearances this spring, looked to be in peak form again once the bell sounded, going 3 for 4 with two balls hit over 112 mph. Granted, you shouldn't make much of a one-game sample for a htiter, but it was reassuring nonetheless.
7. Pitchers with velocity concerns
The lack of Statcast data available for Cactus League play can lead to some early-season surprises for players who train out there. I'm referring specifically to Zac Gallen, whose pitches were down about 2 mph across the board Thursday even though his actual performance against the Rockies was decent enough.
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I did notice the same velocity dip in the one spring start for which data was available, but I figured it was only spring and only a sample of one. Neither is the case anymore. The Diamondbacks delayed Gallen for the start of spring training, and it's possible he's still gaining strength. But it's also possible that his big workload during a deep playoff run will have a carryover effect. It's too early to panic, but we'll need to fixate on every start for a while.
Other pitchers whose velocity was down (though more like 1.5 mph) were Framber Valdez and Mitch Keller, and neither performed particularly well.
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It's not uncommon for Keller's velocity and pitch selection to vary from one start to the next, so he's of the lowest concern for me. Valdez is of low concern, too, but as with Gallen, we'll need to keep monitoring it.
8. Speedsters moving down the lineup
I began touting Nico Hoerner as a breakout last year when I learned he'd be batting at the top of the Cubs lineup. Sure enough, the increased at-bats led to a big jump in runs scored and stolen bases. But there's a new manager in Chicago now, and at least so far, Craig Counsell has shown that he prefers to bat Hoerner ... seventh. I caught wind of this late in spring training and wish I had made a bigger deal of it. Of course, it may change -- and sooner than later -- but if not, then there probably isn't much difference between Hoerner and Bryson Stott, who was being drafted about 50 picks later.
Meanwhile, Esteury Ruiz wasn't in the lineup at all for the Athletics, and there was talk late in spring training that he might sit against right-handers, at least to start out. It's a problem because ... well, there's really no other player like Ruiz. You drafted him to meet what was probably a major speed shortage for your team, and short of picking up Victor Scott (who I think is a relative long shot anyway), you're not going to find anyone who approaches Ruiz's upside there. I advise you to stay patient, though. It's not like J.J. Bleday and Lawrence Butler, two of the outfielders who started over Ruiz, have proven to be of much worth at the plate yet.
9. I see London, I see France ...
... I see Cole Ragans' underpants. And you did too if you tuned into Thursday's game between the Twins and Royals. How could you not?
I came for the Cole Ragans Ks, but the BVDs stole the show. https://t.co/lZz91g5OYo
— Scott White (@CBSScottWhite) March 28, 2024
It must be incredibly lonely standing up on that hill, knowing that tens of thousands of people are watching your every move. It must be doubly so when you're basically in your underwear. And the poor Twins couldn't even rely on the tried-and-true tactic of picturing Ragans in his underwear to calm their nerves because, well, there was nothing to picture. It was right there.
For what it's worth, Ragans pitched well, allowing two earned runs in six innings. He struck out nine and registered 19 swinging strikes, including four or more on four different pitches. He was a bit wild, perhaps, but it's a testament to his ability that he performed so well while at his most, ahem, vulnerable.
I wish I could say more about this Ragans start, him being a favorite of mine this year, but every time I flipped over to that game, it was like watching Bryan Cranston in the first episode of Breaking Bad. There was a whole lot going on with that RV out in the desert, but what I remember most is the underwear.
It's been said many times but bears repeating over and over until something is done about it: These new uniforms are a problem.
