Had things gone differently for him on Saturday night in Las Vegas, Robert Guerrero might have approached the imminent May 2 match between Manny Pacquiao and Floyd Mayweather Jr. as something more than a spectator with intimate knowledge.
Instead, the rugged Guerrero was dropped once and ultimately beaten by Keith Thurman via unanimous decision in NBC’s return to primetime boxing at the MGM Grand. So rather than spending the next eight weeks scouting the rival welterweight champions for himself, he’s left to expert analysis for others.
"It could go either way, with how fast Manny is," Guerrero told BoxingScene.com.
"It all comes down to timing. If his timing is on, he can catch Mayweather."
Guerrero lost a unanimous decision while trying to win the WBC 147-pound championship from Mayweather in May 2013 – the first fight on Mayweather’s six-fight pay-per-view deal with Showtime.
Showtime and HBO will jointly broadcast the Mayweather-Pacquiao fight, following a model similar to the one they built when Mike Tyson faced Lennox Lewis in 2002.
Guerrero also has in-ring experience with Pacquiao, having sparred with him in 2005, in the early days of the Filipino's climb up the weight-class ladder. Pacquiao won a championship at 112 pounds in 1998, and has since added sanctioning body titles at 122, 130, 135, 140, 147 and 154 pounds.
Guerrero held a North American title belt at 126 pounds when he worked out with Pacquiao, then ultimate won world titles of his own at 126 and 130 pounds. A win over Thurman on Saturday would have put him at or near the front of the line for another title shot at 147.
"[Pacquiao] does different things. You don't have a rhythm, and he's just so fast, in and out," Guerrero said. "And his reaction time, my God, and those hooks. But anything can happen. And everyone knows in boxing, one punch changes everything."
Mayweather is a firm favorite according to odds posted Monday afternoon at VegasInsider.com, where it'd take a $240 wager on the WBA/WBC welterweight champion to earn a $100 profit. Meanwhile, a $100 outlay on Pacquiao -- the WBO champion in the weight class -- would yield a $200 return.
For his sake, Guerrero considers it more a 50/50 proposition.
"I think it's a pick 'em fight," he said.
A weekend report out of Mayweather’s training camp indicated the 38-year-old was stepping up his aggression in sparring sessions and had decked one workout partner with a body shot. Some, though, contend that a more all-in offensive mindset could be to his detriment against Pacquiao.
Mayweather has stopped just one more opponent -- Victor Ortiz -- since scoring a 10th-round TKO over Ricky Hatton in 2007.
"Why change now?" Randy Gordon, former editor of The Ring and now a boxing host on SiriusXM radio, told CBSSports.com. "Money May is not Sugar Ray Leonard. Do what got you to 47-0. Sure, stand your ground once in a while, but then do what you do best. Changing now is more likely to make him 47-1 than 48-0."
