The 2023 MLB season is only a month old and already so much has happened. The Rays tied the modern record for consecutive wins to begin a season. Jordan Walker began his career with a record-tying 12-game hitting streak as a 20-year-old (then got demoted). The Athletics all but confirmed they're moving to Las Vegas. It's been an eventful few weeks.
This is Year 2 of MLB's new 12-team postseason format. The one-and-done Wild Card Game has been replaced by the best-of-three Wild Card Series. The season does not end today (thankfully), but here's what the 12-team postseason field would look like if it did:
AMERICAN LEAGUE
BYE: Rays and Twins
WC1: Rangers vs. Yankees
WC2: Orioles vs. Blue Jays
NATIONAL LEAGUE
BYE: Pirates and Braves
WC1: Diamondbacks vs. Mets
WC2: Brewers vs. Cubs
One month is a drop in the bucket in baseball (only 382 of 2,430 regular season games have been played, or 16%), though the old adage rings true: you can't win a division in April, but you sure can lose one. That said, getting into the postseason as a wild-card team is a little easier now because there's one more spot per league.
Even with 84% of the schedule still to be played, the postseason outlook has changed quite a bit in the early going. Here, according to Sportsline, are the teams that have most helped (and hurt) their postseason odds this year.
Largest postseason odds increases
| Opening Day odds | April 28 odds | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
Texas Rangers (14-11) | 24.7% | 61.8% | +37.1% |
Milwaukee Brewers (16-9) | 46.8% | 83.4% | +36.6% |
Tampa Bay Rays (21-5) | 76.6% | 99.6% | +23.0% |
Chicago Cubs (14-10) | 6.4% | 22.9% | +16.5% |
Minnesota Twins (15-11) | 13.2% | 29.3% | +16.1% |
The Braves, Giants, and Orioles are the only other teams to improve their postseason odds by more than five percentage points in the early going. Yes, the Giants have managed to improve their postseason odds (by 14.4 percentage points, to be exact) despite a middling 11-14 record. That has more to do with what looks like a mediocre division than San Francisco emerging as a bona fide contender. Anyway, let's look at the five teams that have improved their postseason odds the most thus far.
Rangers: Getting swept in Cincinnati earlier this week hasn't hurt the Rangers too much. They currently hold the tiebreaker over the Astros and are technically in first place in the AL West thanks largely to an offense that leads baseball in runs scored per game. And that's with Corey Seager on the injured list too. The vaunted rotation has been good more than great in the early going, which just means there's room for the Rangers to get even better moving forward. Under no circumstances will I count Houston out in the AL West, but even so, Texas has taken steps toward securing a postseason berth in the season's first month. Nicely done, Rangers.
Brewers: With all due respect to the upstart Pirates, Milwaukee looks like the best team in the NL Central to me, though they really need players to stop getting hurt. Aaron Ashby, Garrett Mitchell, Luis Urías, and Brandon Woodruff are all injured and not particularly close to returning, and they're only four of the 10 Brewers on the injured list. Milwaukee is walking a bit of a tightrope -- they are 2-0 in extra innings and 5-1 in one-run games -- though the talent level is high and the wins are in the bank.
Rays: A modern record-tying winning streak to begin the season and continued excellence has nudged the Rays from likely postseason team to postseason lock, or at least as much of a lock as you can be before May 1. Tampa is scoring the second-most runs per game and allowing the fewest runs per game, leading to a plus-95 run differential that laps the field (the Rangers are second at plus-54). The Rays were projected to be a pretty good team coming into the season and they have been the best team in baseball since Opening Day. Their sky high postseason odds reflect their dominance.
Cubs: Two things are true: Chicago has improved their postseason odds more than all but three other teams in baseball, and their postseason odds still aren't very good. That's OK though. You can't jump from 6.4% to 100% in a month's time. Thanks to a deep lineup (five players at 130 OPS+ or better) and a strong rotation (Justin Steele deserves more national attention), the Cubs have come out of the gate nicely and made progress toward a return to the postseason. Still a lot of work to be done, but they're moving in the right direction.
Twins: The Twins won their first four games, then lost four of their next six games, then won four straight games, then lost six of their next seven games. They have now won four of their last five games to continue the rollercoaster. Today, they sit atop the not very imposing AL Central thanks largely to stellar rotation work, despite an offense that has been more hit or miss. Carlos Correa, Max Kepler, and Jose Miranda have more to give at the plate. Minnesota is not yet firing on all cylinders and yet they've already given their postseason odds a nice little boost.
Largest postseason odds decreases
| Opening Day odds | April 28 odds | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
St. Louis Cardinals (10-16) | 92.5% | 53.2% | -39.3% |
San Diego Padres (13-14) | 81.5% | 46.2% | -35.3% |
Cleveland Guardians (12-13) | 82.6% | 54.7% | -27.9% |
New York Yankees (15-11) | 92.1% | 68.1% | -24.0% |
Seattle Mariners (11-14) | 69.4% | 45.6% | -23.8% |
These five teams stand out from the pack. No other team has seen their postseason odds decrease by even nine percentage points in the season's first month. All five entered the season more likely than not to go to the postseason and now four of them have roughly a 50/50 shot. I will note that, at this time last season, the Braves had seen their postseason odds takes the biggest hit. Appearing on this list is not a death knell. Still plenty of season to play. That said, let's look a little more closely at these five clubs.
Cardinals: At 10-16, the Cardinals are off to their worst 26-game start since the 2007 team also started 10-16. The issues are numerous. The rotation is thin and doesn't reliably provide innings, they can't seem to figure out what they want to do in the outfield, Nolan Arenado's slugging percentage still starts with a three, and the bullpen has let winnable games slip away. Going 1-4 in one-run games will make a slow start look worse than it is, but those losses happened, and St. Louis has dug themselves a hole.
Padres: The hope was Fernando Tatis Jr.'s return would be the spark San Diego needed and it hasn't really happened. They are 4-3 with Tatis and have scored no more than two runs in three of those seven games. The Padres are middle of the pack in runs allowed per game and only the Athletics, Marlins, Nationals, Royals, and Tigers are averaging fewer runs scored per game. That is not the company you want to keep in anything, especially an offensive stat. Eventually San Diego will flip the switch and play up to their talent level, right? Until it happens, they're doing damage to their postseason odds. Not irreversible damage, but damage nonetheless.
Guardians: Cleveland's slow start is a tad more concerning than their 12-13 record would lead you believe. They are 4-0 in coin flip extra-inning games and they have played the easiest schedule in baseball based on their opponents' projected winning percentage. The Guardians are also averaging fewer than four runs scored per game, and they've lost the second fewest man-games to injury. The AL Central is extremely winnable and Cleveland didn't really turn it on until August last year. Still, not the best start to the season for the Guardians. They've already used up some of their margin of error.
Yankees: I'm surprised to see New York's postseason odds have taken such a hit in the early going. Then again, they are in fourth place in the game's toughest division, and the projections aren't high on an offense that is averaging slightly more than four runs per game. Long-term injuries -- specifically Carlos Rodón, Giancarlo Stanton, and Luis Severino -- haven't helped either. The Yankees have had an uneven start to the season and an uneven start in the AL East will make life tougher later this summer.
Mariners: The last two seasons, the Mariners made their living winning close games and outplaying their run differential. Those close games are going the other way this year. Seattle is 0-4 in extra inning games and 3-7 in one-run games. This is a team that went 67-41 (.620) in one-run games the last two seasons. That magic touch in close games hasn't been there. The Mariners have had three losing streaks of at least three games already. The road ahead will be tougher with Robbie Ray done for the season too.
