Think back to this time last year, when virtually everyone assumed Jabari Smith Jr. was a lock to go No. 1. Then the whispers started just prior to draft night about a sudden change and, boom, Paolo Banchero became the Orlando Magic's top pick.
Safe to say, there will be no such switcheroo come next Thursday night, when the San Antonio Spurs will assuredly fulfill Victor Wembanyama's destiny as the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 draft. However, there will be intrigue immediately afterward, when the Charlotte Hornets will have to decide between Scoot Henderson, long considered the next-best thing to Wembanyama in this draft, and Brandon Miller, whose incredible college season put him in the mix at No. 2.
Logic dictates that if the Hornets evaluate Henderson and Miller as close to the same level of prospect, they should take the player that fits best. In this case, that would likely be Miller, since Charlotte already has a ball-dominant point guard in LaMelo Ball. For me, however, Henderson and Miller aren't that close.
That's why I have Henderson going at No. 2, despite the potential conflict with Ball. I see Henderson as a transformational player who you can build a franchise around, and the Hornets simply can't pass that up. Take the best player and worry about fit later.
There are a few surprises in my first mock draft of the year, starting with Wembanyama's teammate Bilal Coulibaly landing in the lottery after being nowhere near the 2023 radar until late in the season. Fans of the Los Angeles Lakers might also be pleased, as elite sharpshooter Jordan Hawkins fell to them at No. 17.
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Without further ado, here is my first 2023 NBA Mock Draft.
Mock Draft
Round 1
Round 1 - Pick 1
Call me unconventional, but I think Wembanyama is a dark horse to go No. 1 overall. In all seriousness, this guy has the upside of being a 7-foot-4 Kevin Durant on offense and a mixture of Anthony Davis and Rudy Gobert defensively. There's a reason he's considered the best draft prospect since LeBron James, and nothing short of a meteor crashing into the Earth will prevent San Antonio from making him its next franchise cornerstone.
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Round 1 - Pick 2
Given the positional redundancy with LaMelo Ball, I understand why many experts expect Charlotte to go with the better-fitting Brandon Miller here. I just think Henderson is a significantly better prospect, and the Hornets are in no position to be picky about fit at this point. Henderson is as dynamic of a guard prospect as we've seen, and one source told me that while it's not likely, he wouldn't be SHOCKED if Henderson ended up having a better NBA career than Wembanyama. High praise, indeed.
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Round 1- Pick 3
Alabama
• 6'7"
/ 200 lbs
Miller is a prototypical 3-and-D wing who can fit next to Damian Lillard and Anfernee Simons, should Portland elect to keep its pick. Miller has the shot-creation and playmaking upside to become much more, which is why the Blazers shouldn't hesitate to draft him at No. 3 as someone who can bridge the gap between the present and the future.
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Round 1 - Pick 4
It would be great for the Rockets to get a more seasoned prospect to help get an adult in the room, but they can't pass up Amen Thompson here. An absolutely explosive, elite athlete, Thompson has unlimited upside on both ends of the floor, though it may take a while for him to fulfill it.
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Round 1 - Pick 5
UCF
• 6'9"
/ 215 lbs
I rate Hendricks more highly than some draft analysts, and I absolutely love the fit in Detroit as a stretch-four capable of both defensive switching and rim protection. His main weak spots are ball-handling and shot-creation, but he won't need to worry about that one bit next to Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey. What the Pistons need is athleticism and shooting around those dynamic guards, and Hendricks fits the bill perfectly.
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Round 1 - Pick 6
Cam Whitmore
SF
Villanova
• 6'7"
/ 230 lbs
Ideally the Magic would go with a point guard prospect here, but they simply can't pass on Whitmore, a freak athlete with a 40-inch vertical who displayed great catch-and-shoot promise at Villanova. An excellent cutter and above-the-rim finisher, Whitmore will fit nicely next to the playmaking of Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner.
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Round 1 - Pick 7
The Pacers need athletes who can run, run, run next to Tyrese Haliburton, so Ausar Thompson is a great choice. Thompson profiles as an elite transition finisher and off-ball cutter, while showcasing some intriguing upside as a defender and secondary playmaker. If the 3-point shot develops, we're talking about a potential multi-time All-Star here.
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Round 1 - Pick 8
Arkansas
• 6'7"
/ 200 lbs
The Wizards need a win here, and Black's floor is relatively high given his basketball IQ, size and athleticism as a combo guard. The 3-point shot is a legitimate concern, but Black may be the best playmaker in the draft outside of Scoot Henderson, and has tremendous defensive upside with the ability to potentially guard multiple positions.
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Round 1 - Pick 9
Baylor
• 6'4"
/ 185 lbs
George is a flat-out bucket-getter, and would be a great fit in Utah as a combo guard capable of playing on or off the ball. He may not bring the defensive toolbox that the Jazz could use at this juncture, but with a top-10 pick it's worth taking a swing on George's upside as a potential 20-point scorer at a position of need.
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Round 1 - Pick 10
Houston
• 6'7"
/ 235 lbs
The Mavs tanked hard for this pick, and if they don't trade it then Walker would be a great fit to help bring some defensive identity to a team that looked lost after the Kyrie Irving trade. Already possessing an NBA body at 19, Walker is the ideal defensive big in the modern NBA, capable of guarding multiple positions and cleaning up the glass. He's also shown flashes of being a capable 3-point shooter and short-roll playmaker, which would only add to his value.
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From
Chicago Bulls
Round 1 - Pick 11
Gradey Dick
SF
Kansas
• 6'6"
/ 205 lbs
The Magic have a ton of playmaking and athleticism, so why not mix in some shooting? Dick is arguably the best shooter in the draft and he has legitimate size, in the mold of a more athletic Kyle Korver. With a tailor-made role the second he steps on an NBA floor, Dick is a perfect addition to a young team on the rise.
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Round 1 - Pick 12
OKC is known for taking big swings, and taking Coulibaly -- a teammate of Victor Wembanyama who's recently burst onto the NBA radar -- would certainly qualify. Look, all the tools are there for Coulibaly to be an elite NBA wing someday, but it's going to take a lot of development to get there. The rapid growth the 18-year-old has shown in such a short period of time bodes well for his continued improvement.
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Round 1 - Pick 13
Kentucky
• 6'3"
/ 195 lbs
Whether Fred VanVleet returns or not, the Raptors desperately need another guard who can run the show, and Wallace can do it on both ends of the floor. He profiles as an elite perimeter defender with a 6-8 wingspan and a stout frame, while his playmaking and crafty finishing should keep him serviceable offensively while he works on his 3-point shot.
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Round 1 - Pick 14
Duke
• 7'1"
/ 230 lbs
A prototypical rim-running, shot-blocking center, Lively's athleticism and 7-7 wingspan should get him minutes right away. If New Orleans lets Jaxson Hayes walk in restricted free agency, Lively could become the center of the future for the Pelicans with Jonas Valanciunas' contract set to expire at the end of next season. Lively is a perfect fit in the dunker spot next to all the scoring and playmaking on the Pelicans' roster.
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Round 1 - Pick 15
Indiana
• 6'5"
/ 215 lbs
I love Hood-Schifino as a prospect, and he would slot in nicely in Atlanta as a backup combo guard who can play next to both Trae Young and Dejounte Murray. The guy just doesn't do a whole lot wrong on the basketball court, and his 6-10 wingspan allows him to play much bigger than his size defensively.
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Round 1 - Pick 16
The Jazz are in the asset collection business, and Miller would only add to their stock as a dynamic athlete with a 7-2 wingspan. The double-double machine is a tremendous finisher both in the half-court and transition, and has showcased some tantalizing ball-handling and playmaking ability that would significantly raise his ceiling. The shooting needs work, but Utah can afford to put in the development time.
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Round 1 - Pick 17
Connecticut
• 6'5"
/ 190 lbs
If the playoffs showed us anything, it's that the Lakers need shooting, and they would be absolutely ecstatic if Hawkins is still available when they make their pick. A JJ Redick-esque shooter who can knock them down on the move or spotting up, Hawkins can fit seamlessly next to LeBron James and Anthony Davis. He also has some playmaking and defensive upside that could eventually turn him into an elite shooting guard.
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Round 1 - Pick 18
Kris Murray
PF
Iowa
• 6'8"
/ 220 lbs
Murray has the experience, basketball IQ and defensive capability to get playing time right away for the Heat, who lacked a true power forward all season despite making it to the Finals. The main area of concern for Murray is whether he can become a consistent knock-down 3-point shooter, particularly from the corners. If he can do that, he'll be a solid rotation player for years to come.
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Round 1 - Pick 19
Kobe Bufkin
SG
Michigan
• 6'5"
/ 195 lbs
The Warriors already took a shooting guard from Michigan a few years ago in Jordan Poole, and that worked out pretty well. Still in need of playmaking guards outside of Poole and Steph Curry, Golden State would find a good one here in Bufkin, who can operate the pick-and-roll as both a scorer and passer. He's not an elite athlete, but his 6-8 wingspan allows him to get a lot of deflections and more than hold his own defensively.
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From
Los Angeles Clippers
Round 1 - Pick 20
Ohio State
• 6'5"
/ 235 lbs
Houston could use some shooting around all that athleticism, and Sensabaugh is elite in catch-and-shoot scenarios. His NBA body will allow him to get on the court immediately, even if he does have some defensive shortcomings, and he's adept in the mid-range when he gets run off the 3-point line.
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From
Phoenix Suns
Round 1 - Pick 21
Arkansas
• 6'2"
/ 185 lbs
Who knows what Brooklyn's plans are moving forward, so they might as well take the best player available at 21, and that's Smith. A self-creator extraordinaire, Smith has a silky smooth pull-up jumper and runner in the lane, and has stretches where he gets absolutely unconscious from 3-point range. He's not a playmaker as of yet, but he's a bona fide bucket-getter, which will at least get him some opportunities early.
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Round 1 - Pick 22
Jett Howard
SG
Michigan
• 6'6"
/ 215 lbs
Knock-down shooters aren't easy to come by, and Howard is an exciting one at 6-8. He's a quick decision-maker who can spot up in transition or hit 3-pointers off the dribble, and has also flashed some playmaking ability off of closeouts. He's going to get targeted defensively, but his shooting ability makes it worth taking him at No. 22.
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From
New York Knicks
Round 1 - Pick 23
Noah Clowney
PF
Alabama
• 6'9"
/ 210 lbs
The Blazers need defensive help, and Clowney profiles as a mobile rim-protector who can play both the four and the five. He's a great finisher and can live in the dunker spot for some vertical spacing next to Damian Lillard, and he's also shown flashes of pick-and-pop and spot-up shooting -- though that's probably going to take some time to develop.
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Round 1 - Pick 24
Colby Jones
SG
Xavier
• 6'6"
/ 207 lbs
I absolutely love Jones as a fit for Sacramento, who can make full use of his shooting, passing and quick decision-making. He has the chops to be a secondary playmaker, and constantly remains under control on both ends of the floor. He can guard multiple positions given his size and length, which should play nicely with the upstart Kings.
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Round 1 - Pick 25
Duke
• 6'6"
/ 220 lbs
Whitehead is one of the more intriguing prospects in the draft, and another recent foot surgery only adds to the mystery. If healthy, though, Whitehead could be the steal of the draft with his size and scoring ability. He'll fit in well with the Grizzlies, who desperately need more knock-down 3-point threats on the wing and half-court shot-creation.
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From
Cleveland Cavaliers
Round 1 - Pick 26
Nnaji is a bit of a project, but at 18 years old he's already shown tremendous defensive upside in terms of shot-blocking, rim protection and potential switchability. He has a relentless motor and is a beast on the glass, and while his offensive game lacks polish right now, he's still a capable lob threat and finisher at the rim. He'd be a nice piece to add to the Pacers' frontcourt, provided they have the patience to help him develop.
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From
Denver Nuggets
Round 1 - Pick 27
The Hornets could use defensive help, and that's the main skillset that Rupert brings to the table with his massive 7-2 wingspan from the forward position. He should easily guard 1-3 at the NBA level, and his quick hands lead to a lot of deflections and steals. Offensively he has a long way to go, but he's fast enough to get out in transition and finish at the rim while he develops his shot.
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From
Philadelphia 76ers
Round 1 - Pick 28
Pepperdine
• 6'7"
/ 195 lbs
Lewis is a fun, intriguing prospect who has showcased basically every skill you're looking for in an NBA wing -- catch-and-shoot prowess, one-on-one scoring, finishing at the rim, defensive versatility. His 7-foot wingspan allows him to collect steals and throw down some impressive dunks in traffic. He ran into trouble at Pepperdine trying to do a little too much, so he would flourish in a simplified role with the Jazz.
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From
Boston Celtics
Round 1 - Pick 29
The Pacers need defense, and that's something Cissoko should bring from day one. His mobility and versatility allow him to lock down in one-on-one situations and as a helper. Cissoko's playmaking ability gives him a higher ceiling than just a defensive specialist, but a lot will depend on if he can become a league-average 3-point shooter. For Indiana, it's worth the risk here.
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From
Milwaukee Bucks
Round 1 - Pick 30
Marquette
• 6'7"
/ 230 lbs
Prosper, or "O-Max" as he's affectionately known, has opened eyes during the pre-draft process as a potential All-Defense level player down the road. With a 7-1 wingspan and a 40-inch vertical, he can fit into any defensive scheme, and the Clippers would immediately be able to plug him in as a backup who can play multiple positions. If his shooting continues to improve, Prosper could be looked back upon as one of the steals of this draft.
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