Pretty sure I've been doing mock drafts for over a decade now and this is easily the most fungible/homogenous draft class I've ever seen. There are a couple of points where it's clear what is happening, but this is a lot like 2013. Anything can happen after No. 1 -- and, frankly, I don't think the Jags are locked at this point. We'll see.
The pass rushers, the offensive and defensive linemen and the defensive backs are stout. The quarterbacks? Not so much!
We've got a month until the draft happens and things are going to be exceptionally fluid as it relates to where these guys are picked. Muddling things up even more is the abundance of a) teams who don't have a first-round pick and b) teams who have multiple first-round picks.
When you're double dipping early in the first round, your strategy changes. Especially when there's a QB Thirst Trap sitting at No. 6. Let's take our first stab at what might happen in the first round.
NFL Mock Draft
Round 1
Round 1 - Pick 1
The consensus around the league, in the betting markets and with basically every draftnik, is the Jags are taking Hutchinson here. There's a month to go and things could change, but getting a high-floor edge rusher with a much bigger ceiling than people give him credit for (imagine suggesting he's maxed out leaving college) to pair with Josh Allen creates a similar situation to Doug Pederson's Eagles.
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Round 1 - Pick 2
Lots of people are connecting quarterbacks to the Lions here -- it's totally possible they could love Malik Willis -- but Dan Campbell/Brad Holmes/Chris Spielman like to build in the trenches and are big Jared Goff fans as well. They don't view this as a one- or two-year turnaround, so grabbing another rusher is a good move.
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Round 1 - Pick 3
Neal playing on the right side at Alabama makes this a lot more favorable of a draft pick with Laremy Tunsil no longer looking like a trade candidate. Tunsil's still only 27 so it might feel early for a right tackle, but this fortifies the offensive line and gives them some flexibility moving forward if they change their mind on Tunsil.
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Round 1 - Pick 4
I trust NFL Media's Lance Zierlein for draft comps and he threw out Richard Sherman for Sauce. Given Sherman's secondary career success with Robert Saleh in San Francisco, that makes it an easy choice here for a CB-needy team.
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Round 1 - Pick 5
The Giants probably expect the Panthers to draft a QB but they can't risk letting them get a look at one of the best OL in the draft so they take "Ickey" here, a high-upside lineman with versatility.
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Round 1 - Pick 6
The Panthers are clearly flustered after being spurned by multiple QBs in the trade market. When you can't convince someone to come play for you, there's only one option and that's the draft. Pickett once committed to Matt Rhule out of college and David Tepper is a Pitt alum. It makes too much sense.
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From
Chicago Bears
Round 1 - Pick 7
The Giants probably need an edge rusher more than a safety, but I can't help but think of how important the safeties are for Buffalo, where Joe Schoen and Brian Daboll are coming from. Hamilton gives them a rare talent at the position, albeit on a potentially hefty rookie contract for a safety.
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Round 1 - Pick 8
The Falcons could go literally any position here after the Matt Ryan trade. QB doesn't make sense with this roster. If they're trying to compete at all while doing this rebuild, Marcus Mariota (?) will need another weapon besides Kyle Pitts and, um, Auden Tate. Let's give them the best wideout who could pair with Calvin Ridley when he returns from suspension.
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From
Denver Broncos
Round 1 - Pick 9
The Seahawks need OL help and what would be better than throwing a high first-round tackle pick in Russell Wilson's face the second he leaves town?
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From
Seattle Seahawks
Round 1 - Pick 10
The Jets go for the best player available here on a team that could use plenty of defensive help. Suddenly you add the top corner and a high-upside pass rusher. Wideout would be a perfectly fine option here as well.
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Round 1 - Pick 11
The Commodores (Commandos?) are going all in on Carson Wentz -- what could go wrong with that!?! -- and need a secondary receiving option.
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Round 1 - Pick 12
The Vikings seem like they're in decent shape on offense but the defense is a problem, especially without Mike Zimmer pulling the trigger. Let's give them the best player on the board, especially when they were having conversations about Danielle Hunter's long-term status.
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From
Cleveland Browns
Round 1 - Pick 13
The Texans have a whole host of needs. I think Stingley or Jordan Davis (absurd blue-chip upside if it works out) make sense here for a team rebuilding.
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Round 1 - Pick 14
Davis could go to Houston, but if he doesn't, Baltimore feels like a team that could pounce. Just a stupid combination of size, speed and athleticism.
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From
Miami Dolphins
Round 1 - Pick 15
What a three-pick stretch for the Eagles. If they can hit on some homers here it completely flips the franchise. Dean isn't Roquan Smith but he's a three-down linebacker with a lot of power to his blitz game.
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From
Indianapolis Colts
Round 1 - Pick 16
Jason Kelce just re-upped, so center isn't a "need" for the Eagles. But imagine giving Linderbaum a year's worth of tutelage under Kelce.
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Round 1 - Pick 17
The Chargers added Khalil Mack and J.C. Jackson in free agency but still need OL help and DE/CB depth. Honestly could go Trent Penning here too, but McDuffie feels like the best player available.
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Round 1 - Pick 18
They brought back Tre'quan Smith and still have Michael Thomas, but this isn't a team loaded with weapons. My bigger concern is they've gone outside the trenches once in the first round since 2015 and even then they took Ryan Ramcyzk in the first round that year after taking Marshon Lattimore (2017). Maybe adding another Buckeye helps make Michael Thomas happy enough to stay.
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Round 1 - Pick 19
Unless the Eagles trade down multiple times, it's hard to imagine Philly fans coming out of this first round upset with three picks in the mid-round wheelhouse of this draft for pretty good players. This would constitute a major talent haul for the Eagles.
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Round 1 - Pick 20
If the Steelers don't have to move off their spot and can get a guy they're rumored to love, how can they pass on him? Mitchell Trubisky and Dwayne Haskins/Mason Rudolph handle the bridge year for Willis.
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Round 1 - Pick 21
The Pats probably ultimately trade down here because it's the Pats, but for now I'm just going to give them the best defensive player left.
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From
Las Vegas Raiders
Round 1 - Pick 22
Very curious to see if the Packers trade up for one of the premiere wideouts, but regardless they've got to draft one here. Anything else would be outrageous given their depth chart.
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Round 1 - Pick 23
The Cards added Jeff Gladney this offseason but the CB position can't feel locked down at this point, so they grab Booth late in the first round.
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Round 1 - Pick 24
With the Randy Gregory debacle and a lack of depth at defensive end, the Cowboys have to think about about adding talent off the edge (OL should definitely be a potential focus too).
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Round 1 - Pick 25
Buffalo has invested heavily in the edge rusher position over the past year adding Von Miller, Carlos Basham and Gregory Rousseau. The Bills are one of a few teams that can afford to take Ojabo now, sit him for the entirety of the 2022 season and then allow him to learn from Miller until he is eventually ready to take over.
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Round 1 - Pick 26
The Titans are quietly building a really stout defense with a lot more push up front than just two years ago. Adding more elite talent only helps them here, and the offense profiles fairly well after the Robert Woods trade.
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Round 1 - Pick 27
The Bucs have nailed some big picks on defense over the last few years (Antoine Winfield, Devin White, Vita Vea) and Jason Lichte could go back to that side of the ball with Tampa's offense looking pretty stout thanks to the detirement of the 🐐 .
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Round 1 - Pick 28
The Packers could definitely go with a second wideout instead of bolstering the offensive line but there's value with Penning here and maybe the Packers can kick it down the curb to No. 53 for a second wideout.
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From
Miami Dolphins
Round 1 - Pick 29
I'm probably early on Tolbert here in the first, and Ryan Wilson points out he makes some bad focus drops. But he's a dominant wideout with incredibly high upside and thanks to the Chiefs signing MVS and JuJu he doesn't need to play any kind of important role early. Andy Reid is reworking his receiver corps on the fly and we might not be seeing his big picture.
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Round 1 - Pick 30
One of these two picks has to be defense and everything is in flux. Ideally Melvin Ingram is a post-comp pick bring-back and they can beef up the secondary through the draft with guys who don't need to play immediately barring injury.
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Round 1 - Pick 31
Here's a handy flow chart for the Bengals offseason: "Should you sign/draft more OL? --> Are you the Bengals? --> Yes --> Yes"
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From
Los Angeles Rams
Round 1 - Pick 32
People will want the Lions to go QB here but they can keep grabbing dudes in the trenches to try and solidify the roster before adding the QB of the future. It's the smart way to build, it's just surprising the Lions are doing it.
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