2018 NFL odds, Vegas season win totals: SportsLine projections see value in AFC West
The Eagles, Steelers, Packers, and Vikings join the Patriots in the top five of Vegas' opening lines
Now that the bulk of the free agency period and the 2018 NFL Draft have come and gone, we have a pretty good idea of what each NFL team's roster will look like next season. And because we have a good idea, Las Vegas oddsmakers understandably feel pretty good about predicting win totals for each of those teams.
Over the weekend, the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook released its win totals for all 32 teams.
Unsurprisingly, the team leading the way with the highest over/under is none other than the New England Patriots, with 11 wins. Right on their tail are the Philadelphia Eagles and Pittsburgh Steelers, who each have over/unders of 10.5 wins. The only two other teams in double digits are a pair of squads from the NFC North: the Green Bay Packers and the Minnesota Vikings.
Here's a look at the full list of over/under totals:
|New England Patriots||11|
|Green Bay Packers||10|
|Los Angeles Rams||9.5|
|New Orleans Saints||9.5|
|Los Angeles Chargers||9|
|San Francisco 49ers||9|
|Kansas City Chiefs||8.5|
|New York Giants||6.5|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||6.5|
|New York Jets||6|
If each team wins exactly the number of games Vegas expects, this will be our playoff field:
- AFC: Patriots (1), Steelers (2), Jaguars (3), Chargers (4), Texans (5), Chiefs (6)
- NFC: Eagles (1), Packers (2), Rams (3), Saints (4), Vikings (5), Falcons (6)
That's pretty similar to last year's field, with the only changes being the Chargers and Texans replacing the Titans and Bills in the AFC, and the Packers replacing the Panthers in the NFC. The top of the NFL Draft would be similar as well, with teams like the Browns, Jets, Giants, Colts and Bears remaining among the top 10 selectors.
SportsLine's Stephen Oh shared his post-draft projections based on SportsLine's latest simulations, and while some of Westgate's totals align with the projection model, there are other places where the two diverge.
"The Chiefs are a strong Over with 9.7 projected wins at a line of 8.5 (with even odds on the Over)", Oh said. "The Steelers, without Ryan Shazier, are expected to come Under, and while they are the No. 2 ranked team in the AFC based on power ranking, they are not a good betting value."
The Chiefs aren't the only AFC West team that the SportsLine projection has a strong read on.
"Denver is a decent value at 7.6 wins projected on a 7 o+100 line, but the rest of their futures lines are not good values," Oh said. "Oakland is a strong Under across the board with 6.4 wins in the sims on a 8 u+100 line."
And is there hope for the Giants after using the No. 2 overall pick on an exciting backfield weapon?
"The Giants with Saquon Barkley are still just projected for 6.0 wins, and the Vegas line is not that much better at 6.5," Oh said.
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