2020 NFL Playoff Picture: Here are the projected postseason chances for all 32 teams heading into Week 14

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USA Today

It might not seem possible, but with four weeks left in the season, every single team in the NFC is still mathematically alive to make the playoffs.

The 4-8 Falcons? Still alive
The 3-8-1 Eagles who just benched their starting quarterback? Still alive.
The 4-8 Panthers? Still alive.
The 3-9 Cowboys? Yup, they're mathematically still alive, which is why you can't trust mathematics.

Since the NFL realigned its divisions back in 2002, this year will mark just the fourth time that every NFC team has been alive in the playoff race this late in the season. On the other hand, not every team in the AFC has been so lucky. The Chargers and Bengals were both eliminated from postseason contention in Week 13, which means there are now four AFC teams that have been knocked out of the playoff race.

With four AFC teams out, that means 28 teams are still alive across the NFL and with that in mind, let's get to this week's projections.

As always, the projections here are based on data from number-cruncher Stephen Oh of SportsLine.com. Basically, Oh plugged some numbers into his SportsLine computer this week and simulated the rest of the NFL season, and using those numbers, we're going to let you know the playoff chances for the 28 teams who are still alive, plus the projected 14-team playoff field.

As for the four teams who have been eliminated -- I'm looking at you Jets, Jaguars, Bengals and Chargers fans -- here's a mock draft you can read to pass the time. For everyone else, let's get to the projections.

Note: Remember, this is a projection based on how we think the rest of the regular season will play out. If you want to see the current playoff standings, be sure to click here.

With that in mind, let's get to the projections.

AFC Playoff Projection

1. (AFC North Champion)	Steelers
Although the Steelers lost their first game of the season on Monday, it's not really going to hurt them in the eyes of the computer. The good news for the Steelers is that their loss came against an NFC team, which won't hurt them if they end up in a tie with Kansas City. If that happens, the first tiebreaker is record in conference games and the Steelers are still undefeated in games against AFC teams while the Chiefs have one loss.
2. (AFC West Champion)	Chiefs
The computer might not be projecting the Chiefs to get the top seed in the AFC, but it does think the Chiefs are the best team in the conference. The computer is giving the Chiefs a 20.9% chance of winning the Super Bowl, which is the highest of any team in the AFC (the Steelers are at 16.1%) and second-highest in the NFL.
3. (AFC East Champion)	Bills
The Bills haven't clinched the division title yet, but the computer is feeling really good about their chances of winning the AFC East, even with the Dolphins trailing by just one game. Heading into Week 14, the Bills are being given an 82% of winning the division while the Dolphins have a 15.3% chance. Of course, it's always possible we'll eventually throw the computer out the window and let these two teams settle it on the field and that's because there's a chance the division title will be on the line when they meet in Buffalo in Week 17.
4. (AFC South Champion)	Titans
Even though the Titans and Colts are now tied in the standings, they aren't tied in the eyes of the computer. Despite Tennessee's upset loss to the Browns, the computer is still giving the Titans a 62.2% chance of winning the division, which is well above the 37.9% chance being given to Indianapolis. One reason that gap is so big is because the Titans currently hold the edge in two key tiebreakers (divisional record and conference record)
5. Wild Card 1	Browns
The Browns haven't made the playoffs since 2002 and although things are looking promising this year, there's good chance no one in Cleveland will be celebrating until they actually clinch a postseason berth. That being said, the computer is starting to feel like it might be safe to celebrate right now. The Browns are being given an 88.1% chance of making the postseason, which means the computer basically views them as a lock. However, the Browns are only being given a 1.6% chance of winning the division, so don't get your hopes up there Browns fans.
6. Wild Card 2	Colts
The Colts shouldn't get too comfortable here, because the computer actually has them getting in a dogfight with the Ravens and Dolphins for the final two playoff spots. The Colts have a 63.7% chance of making the postseason, which is less than 3% better than both Baltimore and Miami. The Colts' biggest problem is that they have a difficult closing stretch that includes games against both the Steelers and Raiders.
7. Wild Card 3	Ravens
Although the Dolphins currently have a one-game lead on the Ravens, the computer is projecting Miami to miss the playoffs. However, the race is neck-and-neck with the Ravens being given a 60.3% chance of making it and the Dolphins being given a 60.2% chance. The big difference for the computer is that that the Ravens have a much easier schedule down the stretch (at Browns, Jaguars, Giants, at Bengals) than the Dolphins, who have zero games left against teams that are currently below .500 (Chiefs, Patriots, at Raiders, at Bills). Based on opponent winning percentage, the Dolphins actually have the toughest remaining schedule of ANY team in the NFL.

First team out: Dolphins (60.2% chance of getting into the playoffs)

Note: The first team out could end up making the playoffs. The NFL has approved a proposal that will expand the playoffs to 16 teams, but that will only happen if COVID-19 causes the cancellation of multiple regular season games that have a bearing on who might make the playoffs.

Here's a list of the playoff chances for all the other AFC teams (their percentage chances of getting into the playoffs is listed next to them in parentheses): Raiders (31.3%), Patriots (12.9%), Texans (0.0%), Broncos (0.0%).

Officially eliminated: Jets, Jaguars, Chargers, Bengals.

Note II: The Texans and Broncos haven't been eliminated from playoff contention, but they have a zero percent chance of making it because the computer hates them. Actually, the computer doesn't love or hate, it has no feelings, it just doesn't think there's a mathematical chance for either team to make it.

NFC Playoff Projection

1. (NFC South Champion)	Saints
For the third straight week, the Saints won a game without Drew Brees and for the third straight week, the computer rewarded them handsomely for that. The Saints' chances of winning the Super Bowl have shot up to 24.88%, which makes them the overall favorite to take home the Lombardi Trophy in the eyes of the computer. No other team in the NFC is even being given a 9% chance of winning it all.
2. (NFC North Champion)	Packers
Right now, the computer doesn't see the Packers catching the Saints for the top seed, but it does feel that Green Bay has basically locked up the second spot in the NFC playoffs. Due to the Seahawks' loss in Week 13 and Green Bay's win, the computer is now projecting that the Packers will finish a full game ahead of whoever wins the NFC West.
3. (NFC West Champion)	Rams
For the past two weeks, the computer has been split on its opinion of who's going to win the NFC West, but after the Seahawks' ugly loss to the Giants, it seems the computer has decided to jump on the Rams bandwagon. Right now, the Rams are being given a 60.6% chance of winning the division, which is more than 20% better the Seahawks, who are being given a 39.2% chance.
4. (NFC East Champion)	Giants
The computer loved the Giants before they upset the Seahawks on Sunday and now it loves them even more. Thanks to the win, New York's chances of winning the NFC East shot up from 42.7% to 55.9%. The win by Washington threw a small wrench into things, but the computer still likes the Giants more and that's because New York holds the head-to-head tiebreaker over Washington. Speaking of Washington, they have a 37.8% chance of winning the division with the Eagles (5.8%) and Cowboys (1.9%) still clinging to faint hopes.
5. Wild Card 1	Seahawks
Apparently, the computer has a great sense of irony, because it is projecting the Seahawks to play the Giants in the wild-card round, and yes, we're talking about the same Giants team that the Seahawks just lost to on Sunday. Although the Seahawks got upset, the computer still views them as a lock to make the postseason as Seattle has a 99.9% chance of getting in.
6. Wild Card 2	Buccaneers
The Buccaneers didn't even play in Week 13, but their chances of making the playoffs went up and that's because they now have a full one-game lead on every team immediately behind them. Although the computer really likes the Buccaneers chances of getting to the playoffs (78.8%), it might have to rewrite its algorithm if the Vikings go down to Tampa Bay and upset the Buccaneers on Sunday.
7. Wild Card 3	Cardinals
Despite the fact that the Cardinals are in a total free fall, the computer refuses to jump off of Arizona's bandwagon. Heading into Week 14, the computer still views the Cardinals as the favorite to land the seventh-seed, giving them a 43.4% chance, which is well above the next two closest teams in the Minnesota (31.2% chance) and San Francisco (17.1% chance).

First team out: Vikings (31.2% chance of getting into the playoffs)

Here's a list of the playoff chances for all the other NFC teams (their percentage chances of getting into the playoffs is listed next to them in parentheses): Washington (37.8%), 49ers (17.1%), Bears (13%), Eagles (5.8%), Lions (6.9%), Cowboys (1.9%), Falcons (0.6%), Panthers (0.2%)

Note II: The Eagles, Cowboys and Washington have a higher percentage than several other teams because the computer believes they have a better shot of winning the NFC East than most other NFC teams have of earning a wild-card berth.