2023 NFL playoff projections: Eagles steal NFC East from Cowboys, Bills and Broncos both sneak into postseason

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With eight underdogs winning in Week 14, the NFL playoff picture got flipped upside down.

So where does that leave us heading into Week 15 and who's actually going to make the postseason?

That's what we're going to answer right now in this week's playoff projection. The projections here are based on data from number-cruncher Stephen Oh of SportsLine.com. Oh plugged some numbers into his SportsLine computer this week and simulated the rest of the 2023 NFL season, and using those numbers, we're going to let you know the playoff chances for all 32 teams, plus the projected 14-team playoff field.

With that in mind, let's get to this week's playoff projections (For more from Stephen Oh and his SportsLine "Inside the Lines" team, you can tune into his YouTube channel daily at 1 p.m. ET by clicking here).

AFC playoff projection

1. (AFC North Champion)	Ravens
The race for the top seed in the AFC isn't officially over, but the computer feels like it is. After a Week 14 where the three teams below the Ravens (10-3) in the playoff standings all lost, the computer thinks Baltimore will be able to coast to the No. 1 seed, which will give them the AFC's only bye. Remaining schedule: at Jaguars, at 49ers, Dolphins, Steelers.
2. (AFC East Champion)	Dolphins
Despite a stunning loss to the Titans, the computer still has the Dolphins (9-4) winning the AFC East this year. According to our projections, Miami has a 77.6% chance of winning the division while the Bills are sitting way behind them at 22.4%. That being said, there is a serious chance those two teams could be playing for the division title in Week 18. Remaining schedule: Jets, Cowboys, at Ravens, Bills.
3. (AFC West Champion)	Chiefs
The computer hasn't exactly lost faith in the Chiefs yet, despite the fact that they have a 1-3 record since their Week 10 bye. According to the computer, the Chiefs (8-5) have a 10.28% chance of winning the Super Bowl, which is the third-highest in the NFL, behind only the 49ers (31.97%) and Ravens (17.06%). Remaining schedule: at Patriots, Raiders, Bengals, at Chargers.
4. (AFC South Champion)	Jaguars
Although the Jaguars are clinging to just a one-game lead in the AFC South, the computer seems pretty confident that Jacksonville is going to take home the division title. According to our projection, the Jaguars have an 82% chance of winning the division, which is almost 10 times higher than their next closest competition. The Colts are at 9.7% while the Texans are at 8.2%. Remaining schedule: Ravens, at Buccaneers, Panthers, at Titans.
5. Wild Card 1	Browns
Joe Flacco has showed up to save the season. The computer clearly likes Flacco, because with him running the show, the Browns (8-5) are being projected to get the top wild-card spot in the AFC. The Browns have an 81.5% chance of making the playoffs, which makes them a virtual lock at this point. Remaining schedule: Bears, at Texans, Jets, at Bengals.
6. Wild Card 2	Bills
With all the upsets that took place in Week 14, the Bills (7-6) arguably came away as the biggest winner. They were buried in the AFC playoff race heading into Week 14, but after upsetting the Chiefs, the computer now has Buffalo getting the sixth-seed in the AFC. Remaining schedule: Cowboys, at Chargers, Patriots, at Dolphins.
7. Wild Card 3	Broncos
The Broncos (7-6) looked to be left for dead after starting the season 1-5, but the computer thinks they're going to pull off one of the greatest turnarounds in NFL history by making the playoffs this year. If that happens, they'd become just the fifth team ever to make the playoffs after a 1-5 start. Remaining schedule: at Lions, Patriots, Chargers, at Raiders.

Here's a list of the playoff chances for all the other AFC teams (their percentage chances of getting into the playoffs is listed next to them in parentheses): Texans (43.9%), Colts (39.3%), Bengals (36.2%), Steelers (28.2%), Raiders (1.2%), Chargers (1.2%), Titans (1.0%), Jets (0.9%), Patriots (ELIMINATED).

NFC playoff projection

1. (NFC West Champion)	49ers
The 49ers (10-3) aren't just projected to finish as the top seed in the NFC, they're also a HEAVY favorite to win the Super Bowl in the eyes of the computer. According to our projection, the 49ers have a 31.97% chance of winning it all, which is higher than the next two highest teams combined (Ravens and Chiefs have a combined 27.34% chance). Remaining schedule: at Cardinals, Ravens, at Commanders, Rams.
2. (NFC East Champion)	Eagles
This is not a typo, the computer actually has the Eagles winning the NFC East, despite the fact that they lost to the Cowboys in Week 14. For the computer, this all comes down to remaining strength of schedule. The Eagles have the easiest remaining schedule of any team in the NFL (.365) while the Cowboys remaining opponents have a winning percentage of .558. Remaining schedule: at Seahawks, Giants, Cardinals, at Giants.
3. (NFC North Champion)	Lions
Although the Lions (9-4) have been struggling over the past few weeks, the computer doesn't think they'll be choking away the NFC North title. According to our projection, the Lions have a 78% chance of winning the division. That would put the Lions in line to host their first playoff game in 30 years. Remaining schedule: Broncos, at Vikings, at Cowboys, Vikings.
4. (NFC South Champion)	Buccaneers
For the third straight week, the computer is projecting a new team to win the NFC South, which basically tells me that this division has broken the computer. According to our projection, the Buccaneers have a 44.4% chance of taking home the division crown, which is slightly ahead of both the Saints (36.4%) and Falcons (19.3%). Remaining schedule: at Packers, Jaguars, Saints, at Panthers.
5. Wild Card 1	Cowboys
If there is one thing the computer has been consistent with all year, it's that the Cowboys (10-3) are going to get the fifth-seed in the NFC. They've been projected to finish here in EVERY single one of our projections this year and nothing changed even after they beat the Eagles on Sunday. The Cowboys are one of just four teams that will have to close out the season by playing three of their last four games on the road. Remaining schedule: at Bills, at Dolphins, Lions, at Commanders.
6. Wild Card 2	Vikings
The Vikings (7-6) had the ugliest win of Week 14, but it was good enough to keep them in our playoff projections. Although their QB situation is up in the air and their best player (Justin Jefferson) just got hurt, the computer is still giving Minnesota a 70.3% chance of making the playoffs. Remaining schedule: at Bengals, Lions, Packers, at Lions.
7. Wild Card 3	Packers
Although the Packers suffered an embarrassing loss to the Giants on Monday night, they caught a break and that's mostly because the two teams immediately below them in the standings (Rams and Seahawks) also lost. That's a big reason why the computer is still projecting that Green Bay is going to make the playoffs. However, the computer is expecting a dogfight between the Packers, Seahawks, Rams, Saints and Falcons. The Packers play the Bucs this week and the loser of that game will likely see their wild-card chances dwindle to almost nothing. Remaining schedule: Buccaneers, at Panthers, at Vikings, Bears.

Here's a list of the playoff chances for all the other NFC teams (their percentage chances of getting into the playoffs is listed next to them in parentheses): Saints (42.3%), Seahawks (31.3%), Rams (29.9%), Falcons (25.3%), Bears (2.4%), Giants (2.1%), Commanders (0.0%) Cardinals (0.0%), Panthers (ELIMINATED).

Note: Although the Saints are 11th in the NFC standings, their playoff chances are unusually high because they still have a chance to win the NFC South, which is factored into their percentage. On the other hand, teams like the Vikings and Seahawks are basically only playing for a wild-card spot at this point.