NFL Week 16 picks and bold predictions, plus 10 most important games left on the 2023 schedule

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Welcome to the Friday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!

The Rams delivered themselves an early Christmas present last night with a huge 30-22 win over the Saints. Speaking of Christmas, we're going to have a slightly different schedule here next week. We won't have a newsletter on Monday and that's mostly because Santa has ordered us to take the day off and I don't really argue with Santa because I don't want to end up on the naughty list.

Although we won't have a newsletter on Monday, we will be recording a new podcast on Christmas night where we'll be recapping all the action from Week 16. If you want to join us, be sure to head here and subscribe to the NFL on CBS YouTube page.

As for today's newsletter, we'll be grading both teams from last night's game and taking a look at the most important games left on the 2023 schedule, plus we'll be making some picks and bold predictions for Week 16. Also, just as a friendly reminder, don't forget that there's football on TV on Saturday. The NFL has a doubleheader scheduled and that will be kicking off at 4:30 p.m. ET with Bengals at Steelers on NBC. There will also be a Christmas Day tripleheader coming on Monday.

As always, here's your daily reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. Actually, you don't even have to tell all of your friends, just tell one friend and I'll be happy. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here. Let's get to the rundown.

1. Today's show: Best bets for Week 16

If you're a regular listener of the "Pick Six NFL" podcast or a regular reader of this newsletter, then you know what we do on Fridays: We make picks. And then just when you think there's no way we'll make any more picks, we make more picks.

For today's show, host Katie Mox was joined by Will Brinson along with R.J. White and Alex "PropStarz" Selelnick -- two of our gambling gurus over at SportsLine -- and the three of them offered some of their best bets for Week 16.

The crew spent an entire hour handing out picks, and we're going to go over a few of their best bets here.

Will Brinson (1-2 in picks we shared here last week, 21-23-1 on the season)

Packers (-4.5) to cover against Panthers
Lions (-3) to cover against Vikings
Browns (-2.5) to cover against Texans

R.J. White (0-2-1 in picks we shared here last week, 19-23-3 on the season)

Packers at Panthers UNDER 37.5 total points
Patriots (+6.5) to cover against Broncos
Commanders at Jets UNDER 37.5 total points

Katie Mox (2-1 in picks we shared here last week, 22-19 on the season)

Bengals (-2.5) to cover against Steelers
Seahawks (-2.5) to cover against Titans
49ers team total OVER 26.5 points against Ravens

As for PropStarz, he handed out a few of his favorite props for the weekend, because when your nickname is PropStarz, that's what the people expect.

Bills at Chargers: Josh Allen OVER 1.5 TD passes
Bills at Chargers: Gabe Davis OVER 30.5 receiving yards
Jaguars at Buccaneers: Rachaad White UNDER 73.5 rushing yards

PropStarz went 3-0 with his picks last week and is now 25-17 on the season (Prop Starz started the season 2-7, so he's 23-10 since Week 4).

To hear what the rest of the best bets are for Week 16 -- and there are quite a few -- be sure to click here so you can listen to the entire episode of the podcast. You can also watch the episode on YouTube here.

2. Thursday night recap: Grading the Rams' 30-22 win over Saints

When it comes to the NFC playoff picture, this was a huge win for the Rams. According to our playoff projection numbers from SportsLine, the Rams improved their playoff chances from 48% to 65% with the win. As for the Saints, they're not technically eliminated, but it almost feels that way. Their playoff chances went from 39% down to 27% with the loss.

The Rams are currently the sixth seed in the NFC and they'll stay there heading into Week 16 if the Vikings lose to the Lions on Sunday. However, if the Vikings win, then L.A. will drop to the seventh seed in the NFC.

Alright, that's enough playoff talk, let's get to the grades.

SAINTS GRADE: C-

The Saints couldn't get out of their own way in this game. From bad coaching to bad quarterback play to bad defense, the Saints had a little bit of bad everywhere. Offensively, Dennis Allen showed some faith in his team by going for it on fourth down three different times, but the Saints came up empty on each attempt. The one that hurt the most came on a failed fourth-and-5 just before halftime. After Saints missed out on the conversion, the Rams immediately proceeded to drive for a TD in just 35 seconds, which put New Orleans behind 17-7 at the half. The Saints had four different possessions in this game where they drove inside of the Rams' 42-yard line, but weren't able to score a single point. Defensively, the Saints had no idea how so slow down Puka Nacua, who totaled 180 yards and a touchdown. Although the Saints did get back in this game late, the fourth quarter wasn't pretty. Trailing 30-7, the Saints should have been in a hurry, but instead, they inexplicably put together a six-minute scoring drive. Also, after cutting the lead to 30-22. Allen called for an onside kick even though there was still 3:53 left on the clock. At 7-8, the Saints are now hanging on by a thread in the playoff race.

Saints notes

Saints defense struggles. The Saints defense got steamrolled for 458 yards, which is something that you don't see very often with New Orleans. Before Thursday, the Saints hadn't given up more than 450 yards of offense in a non-overtime game since December 2019, a streak that lasted 69 regular-season games.

RAMS GRADE: A-

Puka Nacua might have just put himself in the lead in the race for the Offensive Rookie of the Year award. The Rams receiver went off against the Saints, catching nine passes for 164 yards and a touchdown. Nacua accounted for exactly half of Matthew Stafford's 328 passing yards in the game. The fact that Stafford even hit that number was impressive, because the Saints had gone 40 games without giving up 300 yards passing to an opposing team. The scary thing about the Rams is that they're rushing attack is suddenly just as dangerous as their passing attack and Kyren Williams showed why. The running back, who leads the NFL in yards per game, bulldozed his way to 104 yards. The Rams did struggle some on special teams — they missed a field goal and they had a punt blocked — but almost everything else they did was impressive. The Rams are starting to look like the one NFC team that everyone will be looking to avoid in the playoffs.

Rams notes

Puka power: With 164 yards against the Saints, Puka Nacua now has three games this season with at least 150 receiving yards, which is the tied for the most by a rookie in the Super Bowl era (He's tied with Ja'Marr Chase and Randy Moss). For the season, Nacua now has 96 receptions, which puts him just eight behind Jaylen Waddle's rookie record of 104. The Rams receiver is also within striking distance of the rookie record for receiving yards. With 1,327, he needs just 128 yards over his final two games to tie Chase's record of 1,455.

If you want to check out more of our takeaways from the game, be sure to click here.

3. NFL playoff picture: Looking at 10 of the most important games left on the schedule

With last night's game is officially in the books, that means there are 47 regular-season games left on the NFL schedule this year. When it comes to the playoffs, some of those games are definitely more important than others, so Cody Benjamin decided to take a look at 10 of the most important games left on the schedule.

Let's take a look at five of the games from his list:

Week 16: Bengals at Steelers (Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET -- NBC). "Dreaming of a Jake Browning Cinderella run? It basically comes down to this. A win against the reeling Steelers vaults Cincy from having a 43% chance of making the dance to nearly 66%, while a loss sends the Bengals all the way down to 18%."
Week 16: Browns at Texans (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET -- CBS). "The Joe Flacco-led Browns are well on their way to an improbable playoff run. But Houston is potentially on its last legs amid quarterback C.J. Stroud's injury. An upset of Cleveland gives them an 80% chance of making it, but a loss drops them to 30%."
Week 16: Colts at Falcons (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET -- Fox). "Atlanta is flailing as it changes QBs once again, but Indianapolis has a chance to gain even more ground in the crowded AFC wild card race with a win, which would elevate their playoff chances from 58.7% to 77%."
Week 16: Lions at Vikings (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET -- Fox). "Detroit can clinch the NFC North (and, thus, a playoff berth) with a win. The Vikings, meanwhile, need this even more; a win skyrockets their chances of making the playoffs to 77% (up 25%)."
Week 17: Packers at Vikings. "If the Packers beat the Panthers in Week 16, they can still boost their playoff chances to 61% with a win here over Minnesota. A loss to the Vikings, though, would all but eliminate them."

If you want to see Cody's full ranking, be sure to click here.

4. NFL Week 16 picks: Browns take down Texans, 49ers win Christmas showdown with Ravens

I hope you're not burnt out on picks yet, because we have even more of them coming at you right now. This batch will be coming from NFL senior writer Pete Prisco and Will Brinson, along with Jordan Dajani, Tyler Sullivan and myself. After a rough patch during the middle of the season, we have now gone .500 or better in seven straight weeks.

We went 2-2-1 against the spread last week, which means that heading into Week 16, we now have a 39-32-3 record against the spread with our picks that have been featured in the newsletter.

Here's how things are going to work: I'm going to give you one pick from each guy and then direct you to the rest of their picks. That way, if you like their pick, you'll be able to read the rest of them, but if they pick against your favorite team, you can ignore the rest of their picks and move on.

Pete Prisco: Falcons (-1) 23-20 over Colts. From Prisco: "Both of these teams are still alive, but they have a feel of two teams going in opposite directions. The Falcons will start Taylor Heinicke in this one at quarterback. The Colts have been playing well, but I think this is a game where the Falcons will find a way behind Heinicke." For the rest of Prisco's Week 16 picks, be sure to click here.
Tyler Sullivan: Steelers (+2) 21-17 over Bengals. From Sullivan: "The Bengals have struggled mightily in divisional games this year as they are 0-4 SU and ATS against AFC North teams. On the other hand, Pittsburgh is 5-1 SU and ATS against the division in its last six meetings, which includes a 3-0 SU and ATS record at home. I can see Mason Rudolph (7-3 ATS in his career as a starter) giving this Steelers offense a bit of a boost, especially against a Bengals secondary that is giving up 7.5 yards per pass attempt (31st in the NFL)." For the rest of Sullivan's Week 16 picks, be sure to click here.
Will Brinson: Buccaneers (-1.5) to beat Jaguars. From Brinson: "Jacksonville's defense doesn't scare me. Trevor Lawrence isn't a guarantee to play with the QB currently in concussion protocol. I would guess he'll play, but doesn't really matter, I like the Bucs either way." For the rest of Brinson's Week 16 best bets, be sure to click here.
Jordan Dajani: Browns (-2.5) 23-17 over Texans. From Dajani: "I'm not going to pretend like the Browns are dominating opponents, but they are 5-0 in games decided by 3 or fewer points this season. If we are power-ranking NFL teams, the Browns are probably above the Texans on every list. Why not take them with the point spread under a field goal?" For the rest of Dajani's Week 16 best bets, be sure to click here.
John Breech: 49ers 27-24 over Ravens (-4.5). From me: "I feel like this game is going to come down to whether Baltimore can run the ball on the 49ers defense. The Ravens are 9-1 this season when they rush for at least 130 yards, but 1-2 when they don't. When they're able to move the ball on the ground, they're almost impossible to beat. I'll say the Ravens run for 125 yards and lose." For the rest of my Week 16 picks, be sure to click here.

For more Week 16 NFL picks, you can check out out our CBS Sports picks page here.

5. Bold predictions for Week 16: Cowboys pull off upset in Miami

Since you're probably tired of picks at this point, we're going to spice things up by giving out some bold predictions, which are like picks, but on steroids. Garrett Podell has five bold predictions for Week 16, and we're going to share three of them below. Last week, Garrett boldly predicted that the Colts would beat the Steelers for the first time in 15 years and that's exactly what happened.

Let's see what Garrett has in store for us this week.

Bold predictions for Week 16:

1. Bryce Young shreds the Packers secondary. The prediction here is that the Panthers QB goes off against Green Bay, throwing for at least 250 yards and three touchdowns. Young hasn't thrown for 250 yards in a single game this year and he's only thrown three touchdowns once.

2. Cowboys pull off upset in Miami. The Cowboys have struggled on the road this year (3-4) and they're 2-3 against teams that currently have a winning record, but forget those numbers, because the prediction here is that Dallas hands the 10-4 Dolphins a big "L" at Hard Rock Stadium.

3. Joe Flacco throws for at least 300 yards against Houston. The Browns have existed since 1946 and they've NEVER had a QB throw for 300 yards in three straight games. After going for 311 in Week 14 and 374 in Week 15, Flacco can become the first QB to accomplish that for Cleveland with a 300-yard game this week.

Garrett actually has five bold predictions for Week 16, and if you want to see each prediction along with his explanation for each prediction, you can check those out here.

6. Extra points: Ja'Marr Chase out for Week 16

Cincinnati Bengals v Jacksonville Jaguars — Getty Images

It's been a busy 24 hours in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you.

Bengals won't have Ja'Marr Chase. The Bengals have a huge game on Saturday against the Steelers, but if they're going to win, they're going to have to do it without Chase, who has been ruled out with a shoulder injury. The Bengals still have a strong receiving group with Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd, but the loss of Chase will definitely hurt.
Steelers won't have Kenny Pickett. The Steelers were hoping that Kenny Pickett might be able to return for Saturday's game, but that won't be the case. Pickett has been ruled out, which means Mason Rudolph will officially be getting his first start in two years when he faces the Bengals on Saturday.
Keenan Allen ruled out by Chargers. The Chargers offense is already operating without Justin Herbert, and now, it also won't have Allen. The Chargers star is dealing with a heel injury that will sideline him for Saturday night's game against the Bills.
AFC South QB update. It's looking more and more like C.J. Stroud won't be on the field this week, while Trevor Lawrence's status is up in the air. Both quarterbacks are in concussion protocol and both have missed practice all week, although Lawrence did suit up on Friday. If Lawrence can't go, the Jags will start C.J. Beathard on Sunday in a key game against the Buccaneers. As for Stroud, if he's out, then Case Keenum will be the Texans' starter against the Browns.
Jets turning to Trevor Siemian. Like Lawrence and Stroud, Zach Wilson is also in concussion protocol and he definitely won't be playing on Sunday. Wilson has already been ruled out and Trevor Siemian will be starting in his place against the Commanders.