With Week 16 kicking off, the 2023 NFL playoffs are fast approaching. Half a dozen different teams can clinch playoff berths or division titles this weekend. But which specific matchups are most important to the postseason race in the coming weeks?
Here, we've identified 10 of the most critical contests with playoff implications:
Note: Playoff percentages are courtesy of SportsLine simulations, unless otherwise noted.
Bengals at Steelers
Week: 16 | Date: Saturday, Dec. 23 | Time: 4:30 p.m. ET
Dreaming of a Jake Browning Cinderella run? It basically comes down to this. A win against the reeling Steelers vaults Cincy from having a 43% chance of making the dance to nearly 66%, while a loss sends the Bengals all the way down to 18%.
Seahawks at Titans
Week: 16 | Date: Sunday, Dec. 24 | Time: 1 p.m. ET
Even after upsetting the Eagles in Week 15, Seattle isn't a lock to make it as a wild card. But a win over Tennessee, which upset the Dolphins not long ago, catapults their postseason chances to 70%, while a defeat drops them to 35%.
Browns at Texans
Week: 16 | Date: Sunday, Dec. 24 | Time: 1 p.m. ET
The Joe Flacco-led Browns are well on their way to an improbable playoff run. But Houston is potentially on its last legs amid quarterback C.J. Stroud's injury. An upset of Cleveland gives them an 80% chance of making it, but a loss drops them to 30%.
Colts at Falcons
Week: 16 | Date: Sunday, Dec. 24 | Time: 1 p.m. ET
Atlanta is flailing as it changes QBs once again, but Indianapolis has a chance to gain even more ground in the crowded AFC wild card race with a win, which would elevate their playoff chances from 58.7% to 77%. A loss drops them to 38%.
Lions at Vikings
Week: 16 | Date: Sunday, Dec. 24 | Time: 1 p.m. ET
Detroit can clinch the NFC North (and, thus, a playoff berth) with a win. The Vikings, meanwhile, need this even more; a win skyrockets their chances to 77% (up 25%), while a loss makes them a safe bet to miss the tournament entirely (37%).
Jaguars at Buccaneers
Week: 16 | Date: Sunday, Dec. 24 | Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
Once a virtual lock to make it at 98%, the Jaguars have crumbled with three straight losses, now boasting a 71.9% chance of entering the playoffs. That drops all the way to 55% if they can't beat Baker Mayfield, though a win shoots it back up to 89%.
Saints at Buccaneers
Week: 17 | Date: Sunday, Dec. 31 | Time: 1 p.m. ET
Even if New Orleans falls to the Rams to start Week 16, a win in Tampa Bay gets them to 52%, per The Upshot simulator, and the Falcons would then loom in Week 18. Winning just those two games gives the Saints a 78% chance of getting in.
Packers at Vikings
Week: 17 | Date: Sunday, Dec. 31 | Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
If the Packers beat the Panthers in Week 16, they can still boost their playoff chances to 61% with a win here over Minnesota, per The Upshot, with the Bears looming in Week 18. A defeat, meanwhile, would all but eliminate them, dropping them to 3%.
Rams at 49ers
Week: 18 | Date: TBD | Time: TBD
Even if the Rams lose to the Saints in Week 16, they can beat the Giants in Week 17 and potentially earn a 73% chance of a postseason bid by upsetting San Francisco, who may or may not be resting starters to close the year.
Every Eagles and Cowboys game through Week 18
OK, so this is cheating the rules a little bit, but seriously, the NFC East title depends on it. Dallas technically has the leg up in the divisional standings right now, with both teams tied at 10-4. But should Philly win out against the Giants (twice) and Cardinals, the Eagles would secure a tiebreaker related to strength of victory. Both clubs are already locked into the playoffs, but where they are seeded -- and which one potentially earns home-field advantage -- could go a long way in defining the NFC race.
