Not even a 31-7 beatdown from the Bengals was enough to scare oddsmakers away from the Cleveland Browns this week.
Despite the ugly loss, the Browns have opened up as a 2.5-point favorite over the Jets in Week 5, marking the first time since December 2015 that the Browns have been favored to win a home game. For the Browns, bad things almost always happen when they're favored in a home game. The Browns have gone 1-4 both straight-up and against the spread the past five times that it's happened dating back to 2014.
Although the Jets are on a two-game winning streak, both those wins came at home. A big reason they're likely an underdog this week is because they've struggled on the road this year going 0-2 with losses to the Bills and Raiders.
If the Jets are going to cover the spread in Cleveland, Josh McCown is going to have to do something he's never done in his 15-year career, which is win three starts in a row. That's right, McCown has never led a team on a three-game-winning streak, which is bad news for the Jets because they've racked up two wins in a row over the past two weeks.
Before the season started, the idea that the Browns would be favored over the Jets at this point in the season wouldn't have been that shocking, but it is somewhat surprising this week considering that the Browns are 0-4 and the Jets (2-2) are on a two-game winning streak.
The other surprise point spread of Week 5 also comes in a game that matches up an AFC North team with an AFC East team. After knocking off the undefeated Falcons on Sunday, the Bills will now travel to Cincinnati, where they've opened as a 3.5-point underdog.
The fact that the Bills are an underdog is probably a good thing because it seems that oddsmakers haven't been able to figure them out so far. Through four weeks, the Bills are the only team that's 4-0 against the spread (The Chiefs can joy them if they cover on Monday night). Not only have the Bills covered in every game, but they've been covering handily over the past two weeks.
In Week 3, the Bills beat the Broncos 26-16 after closing as a 3.5 point underdog. In Week 4, the Bills beat the Falcons 23-17 after closing as an 8-point underdog. Now, they're a 3.5 point underdog to a team (The Bengals) that somehow managed to go the first two weeks of the season without scoring a touchdown.
So what else is surprising about Week 5?
Let's get to the odds and find out.
NFL Week 5 early odds
(All lines from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, all games on Sunday unless noted)
Patriots (2-2) at Buccaneers (2-1), Thursday
Opening line: Patriots, -4 points
After finishing the 2016 season as the NFL's best team against the spread (16-3), the Patriots are now one of the worst in the NFL after four games of the 2017 season. At 1-3 ATS this year, the Patriots are tied with the Browns for the second worst mark in the AFC this year. The one thing the Patriots do have is a quarterback who's unbeatable on four days of rest. Tom Brady is 6-0 all-time in Thursday games where the Patriots only get four days of rest. In those six wins, the Patriots have averaged 31.7 points per game. Also worth noting, the Patriots are 43-6 straight-up after a loss since 2003. The Buccaneers haven't beaten the Patriots in Tampa since 1997. The Bucs have also struggled on Thursday recently, going 0-4 since 2013 and getting outscored by an average of 20.8 points in those four losses. The Bucs' Thursday record is so ugly that they should probably just request to not play on that day anymore.
Bills (3-1) at Bengals (1-3)
Opening line: Bengals, -3.5 points
If you're wondering why the Bengals are favored in this game, just look at their defense. Through the first three weeks of the season the Bengals had one of the best units in the NFL, and that was when they didn't have Vontaze Burfict, who returned in Week 4. The Bengals are only surrendering 16.8 points per game, which ranks third in the NFL, and they'll be facing a Bills team that isn't scoring as many points as their 3-1 record might suggest (just 18.3 points per game). Also, Andy Dalton has been putting up MVP-like numbers under new offensive coordinator Bill Lazor (46-of-57 for 498 yards, six touchdowns, zero interceptions through two games), which means the Bills are going to be facing a rejuvenated Red Rifle. Although the Bengals have won three of the past four games in this series, betting against the Bills has been a horrible idea this year. At 4-0, the Bills are one of only two teams still unbeaten ATS this season (The Chiefs are the other).
Jets (2-2) at Browns (0-4)
Opening line: Browns, -2.5 points
After winning two straight games, the Jets still aren't winning of the oddsmakers in Vegas. The 2.5-points spread here marks the first time since 2015 that the Browns have been favored in a home game. The Browns are 1-3 ATS this year, which is tied with the Patriots for the second worst mark in the AFC. The Browns have also struggled with the Jets recently, going 0-4 straight up against them since 2010. These two teams played in Cleveland last year in a game where the Jets covered as a 2.5-point favorite with a 31-28 win. One thing to keep in mind here: The Jets are 3-7-1 ATS as a road underdog since 2015, which is the worst mark of any team in the NFL over the span.
Panthers (3-1) at Lions (3-1)
Opening line: Lions, -3 points
For the second week in a row, the Panthers are a road underdog, and for the second week in a row, it wouldn't be that shocking to see them cover. Since 2015, the Panthers are 5-1 ATS as a road underdog, which is the best mark in the NFC over that span. That total includes the Panthers covering an 8.5 point spread in their 33-30 win over the Patriots on Sunday. As for the Lions, if you just look at this season, they're 3-1 ATS overall, which is tied for the second best mark in the NFL this year. The Lions are also 5-1 against the NFC South since 2014.
49ers (0-4) at Colts (1-3)
Opening line: Colts, -2.5 points
One of the safest bets in football over the past three years has been betting against the 49ers whenever they play an AFC team. Since 2013, the 49ers are 2-10 straight-up and 2-9-1 ATS in non-conference games, which is the second worst mark in the NFL over the span. On the other hand, the Colts have been impressive in non-conference games, going 9-6 ATS since 2013 (although they're just 1-2 ATS against NFC West teams this season). The 49ers have lost the past three games in this series and haven't won in Indianapolis since 2001.
Titans (2-2) at Dolphins (1-2)
Opening line: NO LINE
With the status of Marcus Mariota up in the air this week, there's currently no line available yet for this game. Mariota strained his hamstring against the Texans on Sunday, and so far, there's no indication of how serious the injury may or may not be. After traveling to Los Angeles, New York and London, this will be the first true home game that the Dolphins have played all season. These two teams met last season in Miami and the Titans walked out with a 30-17 win.
Chargers (0-4) at Giants (0-4)
Opening line: Giants, -4.5 points
This might be the weirdest revenge game that we currently have going in the NFL. On one side we have the Chargers, and on the other side, we have the quarterback who once snubbed them. In 2004, the Chargers drafted Eli Manning with the first overall pick, but he refused to play for them, so the Chargers shipped him off to the Giants. Since then, the Chargers have faced Eli three times and they've won all three games. That doesn't necessarily mean they're going to win, though. The Chargers are playing this game in a time zone where they tend to struggle. Since the beginning of the 2015 season, the Chargers are 2-5 straight-up in the Eastern Time Zone. Of course, maybe we should ignore that stat because the Giants haven't beaten the Chargers in New York since 1986.
Although Eli Manning can't beat the Chargers, he usually does a good job of covering against AFC teams. Since 2015, the Giants are 6-2 ATS in non-conference games, which is the third best mark in the NFL in that span. Oh, and we should probably also mention that of the four winless teams (Giants, Browns, 49ers, Chargers), the Chargers are the only one that has yet to cover a game this season. That basically means that betting against the Chargers was arguably the safest way to make money in the U.S. during September.
Cardinals (2-2) at Eagles (3-1)
Opening line: Eagles, -6.5 points
Betting on the Cardinals has been the opposite of a smart investment this season. Although Arizona is 2-2 overall, they're an ugly 0-4 ATS, which is the worst mark of any team in the NFL this year (The Chargers actually pushed once, so they're 0-3-1). With three-point wins over both the Colts and 49ers, the Cardinals have struggled against bad teams and they've been blown out by the two good teams they've faced (Losing to the Lions by 12 and Cowboys by 11). The Cardinals have also been ugly as a road underdog, going 2-4 ATS since 2015, which is the second worst mark in the NFL over the span. As for the Eagles, Philly went 4-2 ATS as a home favorite last season, which was the second best mark in the NFC. These two teams have played five times since 2011 with the Cardinals holding a 4-1 advantage.
Jaguars (2-2) at Steelers (3-1)
Opening line: Steelers, -8.5 points
In what might come as a shock, the Jaguars have actually had some success at Heinz Field. Since the stadium opened in 2001, the Jags are 3-2 straight-up, making them one of the few teams that has a winning record in five or more games played on the Steelers' home turf. Of course, that might not mean anything this week, especially when you consider that Jacksonville's last win at Heinz came in January 2008. The Steelers have been pretty solid when it comes to covering at home. Since the beginning of the 2016 season, the Steelers are 6-3 ATS as home favorites, which is the second best mark in the AFC over that span. The Jaguars are also going to have to deal with a resurgent Le'Veon Bell, who exploded for 144 yards rushing and two touchdowns in Week 4.
Ravens (2-2) at Raiders (2-2)
Opening line: NO LINE
The reason this game is off the board right now is because oddsmakers aren't sure who's going to be the starting quarterback for the Raiders. Derek Carr was injured during the Raiders' loss to the Broncos on Sunday and didn't return to the game. The good news for the Raiders is that coach Jack Del Rio believes Carr's injury is "something that should be cleaned up quickly." If Carr does play, he's 2-0 all-time against the Ravens.
Seahawks (2-2) at Rams (3-1)
Opening line: Pick'em
This is one of the weirdest rivalries in the NFL, and that's mainly because that no matter how bad the Rams have been, they've always been able to beat the Seahawks. The Rams have won three of the past four in this series, so what's going to happen now that they're actually good? That's a great question.
The Rams are the highest-scoring team in the league, and they'll be hosting a Seahawks team that's just 1-3 ATS this season. Although the Seahawks have struggled against the Rams, they are 18-13-1 ATS against divisional opponents during Russell Wilson's career, which is the second best mark in the NFC over that span (In that same period, the Rams are 15-16 ATS).
Packers (3-1) at Cowboys (2-2)
Opening line: Cowboys, -2.5 points
If this game goes anything like the last time that these two teams met, then you better grab some popcorn and get ready for a thriller. And just to refresh your memory, the last time they met was back in January when the Packers went into Dallas and pulled off a 34-31 upset in the divisional round of the playoffs. Aaron Rodgers was basically carrying the team at that point, and there's a good chance he'll have to do the same thing this week since the Packers' backfield is pretty banged up right now. The Packers' top two running backs -- Ty Montgomery (ribs) and Jamaal Williams (knee) -- were both injured in Week 4 and there's no guarantee they'll be playing in Dallas. On the Cowboys' end, it will probably be worth keeping an eye on the health of Dallas' defense. Sean Lee, Chidobe Awuzie (hamstring) and Nolan Carroll (concussion) all missed Sunday's game against the Rams. The Cowboys could have a tough time slowing down Rodgers if all three players miss another week.
Although these two teams have played some classic games recently, the Packers always seem to win. Dating back to 2009, the Packers have won six of seven games in this series, including the playoffs. However, the one win by the Cowboys came last season when Dallas blasted the Packers 30-16 in Green Bay.
Chiefs (3-0) at Texans (2-2)
Opening line: Chiefs, -1.5 points
After leading the Texans to a franchise-record 57 points on Sunday, Deshaun Watson's next mission is to knock off a team that's arguably the best one in the AFC. These two teams met in Houston last season, and the Texans pulled out a 19-12 win in a game where the Chiefs were favored by one. Although the Chiefs didn't cover in that game, they have covered in every game this season (3-0 ATS, with Monday's result pending), making them one of just two teams that are unbeaten against the spread. On the other hand, the Texans aren't much worse when it comes to covering the spread, going 3-1 ATS so far this season. The one thing the Texans don't do well is cover as a home underdog. Since Bill O'Brien was hired in 2014, the Texans are just 4-6 ATS as a home underdog, which ranks 27th in the NFL over that span.
Vikings (2-2) at Bears (1-3)
Opening line: NO LINE
For the third straight week, the Vikings have no early line on their game, and that's mainly due to the fact that their quarterback situation is a total mystery. Coach Mike Zimmer has been vague about when Bradford might return, which means no one has any idea who will be starting for the Vikings this week. Bradford isn't the only big injury the Vikings are dealing with, either. Rookie running back Dalvin Cook reportedly tore his ACL on Sunday, which means he'll be out for the season. Although we don't know who the Vikings quarterback will be, we do know Minnesota has won four of the past five games in this series.
