Betting against Aaron Rodgers is usually a bad idea, but this might be the week to do it. Despite the fact that Green Bay's offense has looked ugly for most of the season, the Packers opened up as a 10-point favorite for Thursday night's game against the Bears.
Things got so bad against the Cowboys on Sunday that Rodgers and the Packers offense were booed. At Lambeau Field. That's like booing the pope while he's at the Vatican.
Early bettors don't seem too confident that the Packers are going to get things turned around in just three days as the line moved a full point toward the Bears after opening.
Of course, if you're going to bet against Rodgers, doing it in a week where he's playing in prime time might not be the best week to do it.
Since 2010, one of the biggest locks in football has been betting on Aaron Rodgers straight-up in a prime-time game at home. Over the past six years, Rodgers is 13-3 at home in night games.
That stat probably doesn't mean much to the Bears, who handed Rodgers one of those three losses last season in a Thursday night game where Chicago was an 8.5-point underdog.
Let's take a look at the rest of the early odds for Week 7.
NFL Week 7 early odds
(All lines are via Vegasinsider.com)
Bears at Packers (Opening line: Packers, -10 points)
Current line: Packers, (-9 points). Although early bettors are taking the Bears, there are a few reasons to like the Packers. Not only is Rodgers almost unbeatable in prime time, but there's one other thing to consider: Since 2014, the Packers are 7-3-1 ATS coming off a loss, the third-best record in the NFL in that span.
Current line: Giants, (-3 points). The Giants are returning to London for the first time since 2007, while the Rams will be making their first trip since 2012. This game is really going to test the body clock of every player on the Rams roster because it will be kicking off at 6:30 a.m. PT. If you think the Giants' offensive explosion against Baltimore on Sunday was a preview of things to come this season, then New York is probably the smart bet here. Eli Manning is 4-0 against the Rams in his career, with all four wins coming by double digits.
Current line: Vikings, (-2.5 points). After two ugly weeks for the Eagles, bettors jumped at the chance to wager against Philadelphia with this line moving a full four points in the Vikings' favor since opening. The Vikings are the only team still undefeated both straight-up (5-0) and ATS (5-0). Since 2013, the Vikings are 18-8 ATS in road games, the best mark in the NFL over that span. Carson Wentz has struggled over the past two weeks, which isn't good news for him considering he'll be going up against the NFL's top-ranked defense. The Vikings have given up a league-low 12.6 points per game.
Current line: Chiefs, (-6.5 points). Going into Week 6, the Saints had the second-worst defense in the NFL, ahead of only the Raiders. Well, we saw what the Chiefs did to the Raiders on Sunday, racking up 406 total yards in a 26-10 win, which isn't good news for the Saints. Although the Chiefs played well in Week 6, one thing they haven't done well lately is beat NFC teams. In 2015, the Chiefs went 1-3 straight-up and ATS against the NFC. Since the beginning of 2015, the Saints are 6-3 ATS as a road underdog.
Current line: Lions, (-1.5 points). After Week 3, both of these teams were sitting at 1-2, and it looked like the season might be going in the tank in Washington and Detroit. However, both teams have since turned things around, especially the Redskins, who have run off four wins in a row. Not only have the Redskins won all four games straight-up, but they've also gone 4-0 ATS over the past four weeks. On the other hand, the Lions are 3-0 straight-up against Washington since drafting Matthew Stafford in 2009.
Current line: Bengals, (-9.5 points). To cover this spread, the Bengals are going to have to score at least 10 points, which isn't exactly a given for them with the way their offense is playing right now. Cincinnati's offense has been struggling and hasn't scored more than 24 points in any game this season. Over the past five weeks, the Bengals have gone 1-4 and averaged just 17.2 points. The upside for the Bengals is that they've dominated this series recently, winning four of the past five, and those four wins haven't been close. The Bengals have won by 21, 30, 21 and 34. This game will mark the return of Hue Jackson to Cincinnati. Jackson was the Bengals offensive coordinator in 2014-15.
Current line: Bills, (-3 points). If you're looking for a hot team to bet, you might want to go with the Bills, who are 4-0 ATS over the past four weeks. Not only have they covered in each game since Week 3, but they've been covering easily. During their winning streak, the Bills have won their games by 15 (Cardinals), 16 (Patriots), 11 (Rams) and 29 (49ers). Although Jay Ajayi had a breakout game in Week 6 for the Dolphins (204 yards), he's going to have a tough time finding running room against a Bills defense that surrenders less than 100 yards per game on the ground (97.2 yards per game).
Raiders at Jaguars (Opening line: Jaguars, -1 point)
Current line: Jaguars, (-1.5 points). The Raiders have hit some low spots over the past decade, but this might be the lowest: They're an underdog to the Jaguars. The early money is being dropped on Jacksonville and that's likely because bettors are worried about what they saw from the Raiders, who got steamrolled 26-10 by the Chiefs in Week 6. The Raiders have the worst defense in football, and they're 2-16 in the Eastern time zone since 2010.
Current line: Titans, (-2.5 points). That's not a misprint, that Titans are the favorites in this game, which marks the first time since October 2012 that they've been favored in a game against Indy. Of course, there's a reason the Titans are rarely favored to beat the Colts and that's because Andrew Luck has owned them. Since Luck's rookie year in 2012, the Titans have gone 0-8 straight-up against the Colts and 1-7 ATS. That's not good.
Current line: Pick'em. The fact that this game is now a pick'em make sense because these are two of the most unpredictable teams in football. The Ravens have lost three in a row after starting 3-0, which is almost as ugly as what the Jets have done. If New York loses to Arizona on Monday, it will be riding into Week 7 on a four-game losing streak. Not including Monday's game, the Jets are 1-4 ATS this season, and they're 0-7 straight-up against the Ravens since 2000. Home-field advantage might not count for much in this game either, because this will be the second week in a row that the Ravens have played at MetLife Stadium.
Current line: Falcons, (-6.5 points). The Chargers might be the best 2-4 team in NFL history. Although they're not winning the close games, they are covering. San Diego is 4-2 ATS this year, which sounds good until you compare it to the Falcons, who are 5-1 ATS. Atlanta is one of the few cities in the NFL where Philip Rivers has never won. As a matter of fact, the Chargers haven't won a game in Georgia since 1988. If you're going to bet against the Chargers, 6.5 points is a lot for the Falcons to cover when you consider that San Diego hasn't lost a game by more than six points all season.
Buccaneers at 49ers (Opening line: Pick'em)
Current line: Buccaneers, (-2 points). The quarterback change to Colin Kaepernick didn't spark the 49ers at all in Week 6: Not only did they lose to Buffalo, but they didn't even cover the nine-point spread. Overall, the 49ers are 1-5 ATS this season, which is tied for the worst mark in the NFL. If this line holds, it will mark only the second time that the Bucs have been a favorite this season. In Week 2, they lost to the Rams as a 3.5-point favorite. Also, Tampa has struggled against the NFC West. Since 2011, the Bucs are 0-10 straight-up against teams from that division. Yikes.
Patriots at Steelers (Opening line: Steelers, -1 point)
Current line: Patriots, (-4 points). Any bettors who jumped early on the Patriots with this line are probably feeling pretty good about themselves, and that's mainly because Ben Roethlisberger won't be playing after suffering a torn meniscus Sunday. When this line opened, Big Ben was presumed to be healthy because he had returned to the game after being injured against the Dolphins on Sunday. With Big Ben out, this line is likely going to take a huge jump in New England's direction. It won't be a shock at all to see the Patriots become a 7- to 9-point favorite by the end of the week.
Seahawks at Cardinals (Opening line: Cardinals, -1.5 points)
Current line: Cardinals, (-1.5 points). Over the past three seasons (2013-15), the Cardinals have put together an impressive 19-5 record while playing at home. However, the one team they can't seem to beat at home is the Seahawks, who have handed them three of those five losses. Since 2013, the Seahawks are 3-0 straight-up and 3-0 ATS in Arizona. That fact that this game is in prime time probably doesn't bode well for the Cardinals, either. Since 2013, the Seahawks are 7-1 straight-up and 6-2 ATS in regular-season games played at night.
Current line: Broncos, (-6.5 points). Brock Osweiler could barely handle the Colts defense, so it won't be surprising at all if he ends up melting down against the Broncos, especially because there's a good chance everyone in Denver is going to be out to get him after he ditched the Broncos for Houston during the offseason. The Broncos should be inspired Monday: Not only can they get revenge on Osweiler for spurning them, but they're going to have a healthy Gary Kubiak back on their sideline. Also, quarterback Trevor Siemian should also finally be completely healthy after suffering a shoulder injury in Week 4.
Bye weeks: Cowboys, Panthers