Just when you think an NFL season is starting to make sense and you've got a decent handle on the weekly slate, naturally we get roughly 8-10 flips in the 3 p.m. ET hour.
It felt that way at least -- there were probably three actual ATS flips in the early hour. But eight of the 14 games last week were within one score (eight or fewer points), and another game (Cowboys-Eagles) had the ATS decided by a late missed field goal.
Another four (Jets over Packers, Patriots over Browns, Seahawks over Cardinals, Falcons over 49ers) were technical upsets. We keep getting chaos week after chaos week, which is exactly what the NFL wants to happen.
You heard it directly from the league at the owners' meetings this week. They want quarterbacks upright, slinging the football, scoring points and giving their teams chances to score late and pull off insanity. Let's embrace it, I guess.
All NFL odds are via Caesars Sportsbook
NFL Week 7 Picks
Saints at Cardinals
Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: Amazon Prime | Stream: fuboTV (click here)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Pretty significant game for both teams, each sitting at 2-4 with nearly every single current 3-3 playoff team coming from the NFC West or NFC South. The Saints are riddled with injuries to key players: Michael Thomas remains out and Marshon Lattimore won't be available Thursday night when DeAndre Hopkins makes his season debut for the Cardinals. The Cardinals are the worst first-half team in the NFL this season. They're even worse in the first quarter -- Arizona has three points in the first six weeks of the year, joining the 2011 Browns, 2021 Jets and 2008 Lions as the only teams to pull that off in the last 15 years. Those teams combined to win eight games. Totally random stat: The last Cardinals tight end with a 100-yard receiving game for Arizona happened in 1989. The Hopkins/Lattimore situation basically shifted me to Arizona here.
- The pick: Cardinals 28, Saints 21
- Props, Best Bets: Cardinals -2.5, Kyler Murray rush yards over
Browns at Ravens
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)
Since the Super Bowl era began, there have been 40 teams to hold double-digit leads in every game through the first six weeks of the season. The Ravens are the only one without a winning record. Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews both appear banged up heading into Thursday's practice. Lamar's last three games have been night and day compared to his first three, so it's fair to wonder about some kind of hampering injury affecting his play. If he and Andrews play, this could be a shootout -- the Browns have the second-worst defense in the league, per Football Outsiders' DVOA metric. Baltimore is simply the middle of the league, but 24th against the run, where Cleveland excels. This feels like yet another Nick Chubb smash spot, so check his rush yards and longest rush props. I think the over is the play here, but obviously keep an eye on Jackson and Andrews.
- The pick: Ravens 31, Browns 28
- Props, Best Bets: Over 45.5, Nick Chubb props
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Lions at Cowboys
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)
Dak Prescott returns for this game. The timing of Cooper Rush's three-pick performance and the quickness with which Dak was available is not a coincidence. The Cowboys' sacks this season -- all 24 of them -- are the most by a Dallas team since 1987, a wild stat given they won three Super Bowls in that span. Dak's hand injury is pretty difficult to overcome here for me. The Lions' offensive line is top three in adjusted line yards; I can't weigh too much into the game on the road against Bill Belichick, given Jared Goff's splits against the Pats coach. Goff still has a 22/6 TD/INT ratio in his last 10 games. IF Dak can play at a high level, I love the over here. I'll roll with the Lions instead, because they can win here and/or come flying through the backdoor with D'Andre Swift and Amon-Ra St. Brown likely returning.
- The Pick: Cowboys 28, Lions 27
- Bets: Lions +7
Colts at Titans
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)
The Titans have won five of the last six against the Colts in this series, including four consecutive wins. Derrick Henry is an underrated division killer: Since 2019, the Tennessee running back averages 24.4 attempts, 137.4 yards and has 21 total touchdowns in 16 division games since 2019, including four games with 200-plus yards. Indy's been a top 10 team against the run this year by DVOA and may be getting Shaquille Leonard back, which could tamper the enthusiasm for Henry this week. Since 2019 against the Colts, Henry has averaged 23.6 carries and 115 yards per game and scored six rushing touchdowns. The Titans secondary can be got, so I'm curious to see how Frank Reich attacks this defense and whether or not Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines end up playing. I like the Titans as long as they're not above -3.
- The Pick: Titans 24, Colts 21
- Bets: Titans -2.5, Henry overs
Falcons at Bengals
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: Fox | Stream: fuboTV (click here)
Really wish this game was in Atlanta for a Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase "Run 2019 LSU Back" tour after the Bengals offense lit up the Superdome in Week 6. Atlanta's pass defense can be attacked ... but so can the Bengals run defense, and that's where the Falcons thrive. As the great Pat Thorman noted over at Establish the Run ($), this game "features a cathedral ceiling and a cavernous floor" in terms of points scored and pace. Atlanta actually has more games in the 50s (2) than Cincy (1) this season, but if last week is an indication of Burrow and Chase getting things going, we could be in store for a shootout here. Conditions are prime and it looks like a sleepy game despite the big total.
- The Pick: Bengals 35, Falcons 28
- Bets: Over 47.5
Buccaneers at Panthers
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: Fox | Stream: fuboTV (click here)
Carolina returns home after the Inaugural Dead Cat Bounce game which still resulted in a double-digit loss. The Panthers won't have much crowd support for what is likely Tom Brady's final game in Charlotte (enjoy the afternoon, Bob and Ann!), and it'll be against P.J. Walker, who earned another start. Carolina's defense has a lot of good young players, but it can only withstand so many plays each week with the offense unable to score. I don't like laying double digits in a road division game, but you can't talk me into rolling with the Panthers here. Brady is angry and has a defense he can exploit.
- The Pick: Buccaneers 24, Panthers 11
- Bets: Bucs -11
Packers at Commanders
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: Fox | Stream: fuboTV (click here)
The Packers are in crisis mode and we're not even getting R-E-L-A-X from Aaron Rodgers. Instead he wants to "simplify" the offense (and everything?) ahead of a matchup in Washington against a very beleaguered Commodores team coming off a massive TNF win against the Bears. Washington loses Carson Wentz for this game, but Taylor Heinicke might be an upgrade. If you told me Sam Howell is playing a full half, I'll take Washington outright given how the Packers have looked. Washington's defense is stout against the run; if the Packers can't challenge down the field this could be another awkward situation for Aaron Rodgers and Matt LaFleur. I tend to think Green Bay takes care of business with a stern week of Rodgers comments. I would not want to drop a deep touchdown pass in Washington on Sunday.
- The Pick: Packers 21, WFT 14
- Bets: Pass
Giants at Jaguars
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: Fox | Stream: fuboTV (click here)
Brian Daboll and the Giants might be THE story of the NFL this season. They're 5-1 and a win Sunday would mean matching their most wins in a single season over the last six years. Everyone and their brother will look at this game as a free square on New York as a road dog given how close the Giants keep games. It doesn't feel good to lay points with the struggling Jaguars against a well-coached group of G-Men, but this could be a big breakout game for Travis Etienne.
- The Pick: Jaguars 24, Giants 17
- Bets: Etienne overs
Texans at Raiders
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET
TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)
Both teams are coming off a bye for the first time this year; do we get a more locked-in offense or a more locked-in defense? Lovie Smith is the only thing holding me back from taking this over. If the Raiders get something like a 17-0 lead we could see things turn into a big-time slog. Josh Jacobs should EAT in this matchup against a bad rush defense. The Texans are 30th in DVOA against the pass; if Vegas can get a lead and Lovie will let Davis Mills toss the ball around, we could see a ton of points here, particularly in the second half.
- The Pick: Raiders 31, Texans 28
- Bets: Over 45.5, Josh Jacobs rush yards, Nico Collins anytime TD, Brandin Cooks receiving yards over
Chiefs at 49ers
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
TV: Fox | Stream: fuboTV (click here)
Jumped on the "Korked Bats" podcast this week and the over/under for references to Super Bowl LIV was set at 3.5 -- FOX ran that broadcast, is running the broadcast for this game and will be running the broadcast for this year's Super Bowl. There's no chance LIV isn't referenced visually or audibly less less than four times with as much as it benefits FOX to do so. The Niners are riddled with injuries. Patrick Mahomes is 15-2 against the NFC with an outrageous 45/10 TD/INT ratio and nine games of three touchdowns or more. Mahomes is first in the league in pass touchdowns and explosive plays (20+ yards) and third in pass yards. The 49ers are stout on defense, though -- this feels like a big-time, get-right game for them as a dog at home.
- The Pick: 49ers 24, Chiefs 21
- Bets: 49ers +2.5
Seahawks at Chargers
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
TV: Fox | Stream: fuboTV (click here)
There's a path to this going under and it involves a LOT of Kenneth Walker III against a very questionable Chargers run defense. I think this game goes over despite the big number -- the Seahawks can score and they are more than willing to give up points and big plays. The Chargers should get Keenan Allen back this week. Justin Herbert will be able to attack vertically and Mike Williams props will be suppressed after Monday if Allen returns. I think we get points galore and a bunch of explosive plays here. Seahawks fans are a wild bunch so SoFi is likely stuffed with 12th Men.
- The Pick: Seahawks 31, Chargers 28
- Bets: Over 51
Jets at Broncos
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)
Russell Wilson's hamstring injury lingers over this game. He's almost certain to play, if I had to guess. If the Broncos were a reasonably competent team they'd be a good bet. They're not! The Jets are a touch overhyped. Please don't tell their fans I wrote that. Robert Saleh's defense is taking a step forward -- hopefully Jets ownership and management gives him time to develop that side of the ball. Denver has the top pass defense by DVOA, but they're below average against the run. The Jets could cook with Breece Hall here. If I had to bet anything it would be the under.
- The Pick: Broncos 17, Jets 14
- Bets: Nope
Steelers at Dolphins
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: NBC | Stream: fuboTV (click here)
Tua Tagovailoa is expected to be returning for this game. Mike Tomlin in prime time isn't something I want to fade, but Tua is first in the NFL in YPA and the Steelers are just south of average in terms of defensive pass DVOA. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are explosive plays waiting to happen and could have a field day against a Steelers secondary battling injury the last few weeks.
- The Pick: Dolphins 24, Steelers 16
- Bets: Pass
Bears at Patriots
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN | Stream: fuboTV (click here)
Between the time Bill Belichick started extolling the virtues of the Bears entire roster (roughly mid-afternoon) and Wednesday evening, the Patriots line moved 1.5 points. It's a pretty simple situation: When Belichick does what he did, he knows he's winning the game. Anything under Pats -10 is good.
- The Pick: Patriots 24, Bears 7
- Bets: Patriots -10
