The Minnesota Vikings are favored by so many points this week that they might end up making some history.
In the early odds for Week 8, the Vikings have opened up as a 16.5-point favorite over the Redskins, which is notable, because if that point spread gets any bigger, it will turn into the largest point spread ever for a Thursday game.
The current Thursday record was actually set this year when the Patriots closed as a 16.5-point favorite over the Giants back in Week 6. According to Pro Football Reference, there's only been two other instances over the past 30 years where the spread has even hit 15 points for a Thursday game. The bad news for the Redskins is that in all three of those games, the team that was favored ended up winning AND covering.
For the 2019 season, NFL teams have gone 5-1 against the spread (ATS) when favored by 15 or more points. Besides the Vikings, that stat also bodes well for the Steelers, who have opened as a -16.5 point favorite against the Dolphins.
All but one game of Week 7 is in the books and there's a lot to go over, so be sure to check out Ryan Wilson, John Breech, Sean Wagner-McGough and myself break everything down on the latest episode of the Pick Six Podcast. Listen to the full show below and subscribe here for your daily dose of NFL goodness.
Those aren't the only two teams favored by double digits this week. To find out who else is favored big, and for a look at this week's odds and trends -- including Sean McVay's perfect regular season record against AFC teams -- let's get to rest of the opening point spreads for Week 8.
Also, if you're thinking about laying any money on this week's slate of games, you need to make sure to check out the statistical model over at SportsLine. This model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up more than $7,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception four years ago. It has nailed its recent top-rated NFL picks, entering Week 8 of the 2019 NFL schedule on a blistering 21-11 run that dates back to last season. It's also on a 83-54 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. To check out the picks for Week 8, make sure to click here.
NFL Week 8 early odds
(All lines from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, all games on Sunday unless noted)
Note: All betting trends reflect regular season games only
Redskins (1-6) at Vikings (5-2), Thursday
Opening line: Vikings, -16.5 points
Over the past six years, one of the easiest ways to get rich has been to bet against the Redskins in primetime. Since 2013, the Redskins have played a total of 22 night games and they've gone 5-17 both straight-up and ATS. For the 2019 season overall, the Redskins are 2-5 ATS, which is tied for the third worst mark in the NFL. As for the Vikings, they've been one of the safest home bets in the NFL over the past few years. In their past 20 home games, Minnesota has gone 16-4 straight-up and 15-5 ATS.
Seahawks (5-2) at Falcons (1-6)
Opening line: NO LINE
There's no line in this game because oddsmakers aren't sure if Matt Ryan is going to play. The Falcons quarterback was knocked out of Sunday's game against the Rams after suffering an ankle injury. If Ryan can't go, then Matt Schaub would start for the Falcons. No matter who starts, you might want to stay away from the Falcons and that's because they're 1-6 ATS this season, which is the worst mark in the NFL. The Falcons are also 1-11 ATS in their past 12 games played in October. As for the Seahawks, they're 8-1-1 ATS in their past 10 October road games (7-2-1 straight-up).
Eagles (3-4) at Bills (5-1)
Opening line: Bills, -1.5 points
The Bills aren't favored often, but when they are, they usually win. Since 2017, the Bills have been a favored a total of 13 times and they've gone 11-2 straight-up in those games (7-5-1 ATS). The Bills are also 7-2 ATS in their past nine games dating back to last season. Of course, the Eagles might actually end up being the safer bet here and that's because they've won seven of their past eight games against AFC teams.
Chargers (2-5) at Bears (3-3)
Opening line: Bears, -6 points
Chicago might be a fun place to visit for most people, but it hasn't been for the Chargers, who haven't won at Soldier Field since 1970. Even worse, the Chargers have been a black hole for bettors this year, going 1-4-2 ATS on the season, which is the second worst mark in the NFL. As for the Bears, they're 17-6-1 ATS in their past 24 home games. The Bears didn't cover against the Saints on Sunday, which is worth noting, because they haven't failed to cover the spread in consecutive home games since 2015.
Giants (2-5) at Lions (2-3-1)
Opening line: Lions, -7 points
The Lions don't always cover when they're a home favorite, but they are practically unbeatable when it happens. In their past 20 games as a home favorite, the Lions have gone 16-4 straight-up (12-7-1 ATS). Although the Lions didn't cover on Sunday against the Vikings, they are 7-3 ATS in their past 10 games dating back to last season. On the Giants' end, they've actually been a relatively safe bet when they're an underdog of seven or more points. Since the beginning of the 2016 season, the Giants have gone 7-3-1 ATS when they're an underdog of at least a touchdown.
Buccaneers (2-4) at Titans (3-4)
Opening line: Titans, -3 points
The Titans have been dominating the NFC over the past year and a half. Since the beginning of the 2018 season, the Titans have won five straight against the conference. They're also 6-1 ATS in their past seven games against the NFC. However, this game is in Nashville, which could be an issue for the Titans, because they're just 1-4 ATS in their past five home games, and that would be 0-5 if they hadn't pulled off a miraculous goal line stand against the Chargers on Sunday. As for the Bucs, they're 5-0-1 ATS in their past six road games against AFC teams.
Broncos (2-5) at Colts (4-2)
Opening line: Colts, -6.5 points
The Broncos have been a disaster on the road over the past three years. Since the beginning of the 2016 season, the Broncos have gone 5-16 straight-up in road games and just 6-15 ATS. As for the Colts, they've won eight of their past nine games at home (5-3-1 ATS). The Colts are also 4-1-1 ATS on the season, which is the best mark of any team in the NFL this year. However, one thing that is concerning about the Colts is that they're just 1-5 ATS in the past six games where they've been favored by six or more points.
Bengals (0-7) vs. Rams (5-2) in London
Opening line: Rams, -12.5
The Bengals have been bad this season, and playing in England probably isn't going to help, and that's because London hasn't usually been a kind place for underdogs. Over the past 10 years of the international series, the underdog has gone 5-18-1 straight-up and 8-16 ATS, which doesn't bode well for Cincinnati. Another thing that doesn't bode well for the Bengals is that the Rams have never lost to a regular season game to an AFC team under Sean McVay, Since hiring McVay in 2017, the Rams are 9-0 straight-up and 6-2-1 ATS. The Rams are also 5-2 ATS under McVay when favored by double digits.
Cardinals (3-3-1) at Saints (6-1)
Opening line: Saints, -7.5 points
As we've stated over the past two weeks, if you bet against the Saints in October, you're basically throwing away your money. In one of the craziest streaks you'll ever see, the Saints have covered the spread in 16 straight October games, including Sunday's win over Chicago. In their past 21 October games, New Orleans is 20-1 both straight-up and ATS. As for the Cardinals, they might not win on the road all the time, but they do seem to do a good job of covering. In their past 10 road games, the Cards are 7-2-1 ATS (4-6 straight-up).
Jets (1-4) at Jaguars (3-4)
Opening line: Jaguars, -4.5 points
When the Jets play on the road, that usually ends up being a bad thing for them. In their past 15 road games, the Jets have gone just 2-13 straight-up and 5-9-1 ATS. The good news for Jets is that if there's one month where they want to be playing the Jaguars, it's October. Since the beginning of last season, the Jags are just 1-6 ATS in October games and that only cover came against a winless Bengals team on Sunday.
Panthers (4-2) at 49ers (6-0)
Opening line: 49ers, -6 points
The Panthers don't go out west often, but when they do, they almost always cover the spread. Since 2012, the Panthers have played in the pacific time zone a total of seven times and they've gone 5-1-1 ATS in those games (5-2 straight-up). The Panthers have also won six straight games against the 49ers dating back to 2004. As a matter of fact, the 49ers haven't beaten the Panthers since 2001. It's probably also worth noting that Panthers quarterback Kyle Allen is 4-0 both straight-up and ATS this season. Although the 49ers are undefeated this year and 4-2 ATS, they've had some trouble when favored by six or more points, going just 1-8 ATS the past nine times that's happened.
Browns (2-4) at Patriots (6-0)
Opening line: Patriots, -10 points
The Patriots are nearly unbeatable when they're hosting an AFC team at home. Since 2009, they've gone 59-3 straight-up in that situation (39-20-3 ATS), which means betting on a Browns' upset might not be the best move. The Patriots are also 11-4 ATS in the past 15 games where they've been favored by double digits. As for the Browns, they've actually gone 4-1 ATS in their past five road games (3-2 straight-up).
Raiders (3-3) at Texans (4-3)
Opening line: Texans, -7 points
After five weeks away from Oakland, the Raiders nightmare road trip is finally coming to an end this week in Houston. Following their game against the Texans, the Raiders will get to play three straight games at home. The good news for bettors is that before the Raiders head home, they'll be getting one more chance to bet against them on the road. The reason that's good news is because in their past 18 road games, the Raiders are 3-15 straight-up and just 4-13-1 ATS. As for the Texans, they're 3-0 both straight-up and ATS in their past three games against AFC West teams.
Packers (6-1) at Chiefs (5-2)
Opening line: Packers, -3 points
Barring a miracle, the Chiefs won't have Patrick Mahomes in this game, which is why they're a three-point underdog at home. No matter who the quarterback is, Andy Reid's teams have struggled to cover against NFC teams. In their past seven games against the NFC, the Chiefs have gone 1-5-1 ATS. On the other hand, the Packers have gone 6-1 ATS in their past seven against AFC teams. One thing that might scare people away from betting the Packers is the fact that they've been a disaster in road primetime games. Since 2009, the Packers are just 7-15 straight-up in road primetime games and 9-12-1 ATS.
Dolphins (0-6) at Steelers (2-4), Monday
Opening line: Steelers, -16.5 points
If the Dolphins are going to pick up their first win of the season, they're going to have do something no team has ever done: Beat Mike Tomlin at home on a Monday night. Since hiring Tomlin in 2007, the Steelers are 6-0 straight-up in Monday night home games (3-3 ATS). As for the Dolphins, Monday has been a disastrous day of the week for them. Since 2010, the Dolphins are 2-7 straight-up in Monday games and just 1-8 ATS. Of course, one reason to like Miami is that they've covered in two straight games. Also, the Steelers are 0-5 ATS in the past five games where they've been favored by double digits.
