Let's face it. Alabama has been as consistently dominant as any team in the history of college football over the past decade. When -- not if -- the Associated Press Top 25 declares it the preseason No. 1 team on Aug. 21, it will mark the ninth consecutive year that the Crimson Tide have been at the top of the AP Top 25 at the start the season, end of the regular season or end of the postseason. No team can match that. You would be hard pressed to find a team that was ranked No. 1 at any point of nine consecutive seasons. Alabama has won three national championships in the previous eight years, although none of those came in a season in which it was the preseason No. 1.
In that sense, the Tide are due. I am picking them to at least finish the regular season where they start, not because of any sense of being "due" but rather for a much more simple reason: They have the best talent and the best coach. While that does not guarantee a championship, it makes it harder to pick against them.
That said, the margin between the Crimson Tide and the rest of the field is not so large that they cannot be had. I am picking another familiar face at No. 2. Ohio State is the favorite in the Big Ten, but again this season, the Buckeyes will be challenged. Penn State returns a lot of talent, especially on offense, and the Nittany Lions are the defending league champion. The Buckeyes also face Oklahoma in nonconference play.
Southern California is slotted at No. 3 in the preseason College Football Playoff projection. The Trojans were largely considered the best team in college football last season after their 1-3 start. You try to take up that argument with Clemson fans, though. Quarterback Sam Darnold is a leading candidate for the Heisman Trophy.
Coming in at No. 4 is preseason ACC favorite Florida State. The Seminoles can make an early statement when they face Alabama in the opening week of the season in Atlanta, where the CFP title game will be played. FSU has most of its defense returning from last season, most notably All-American safety Derwin James, who had last season cut short by a knee injury. Deondre Francois is back to lead the offense.
South Florida is the pick to win the American Athletic Conference and represent the Group of Five in the New Year's Six this season. I have them matched up with projected SEC runner-up Florida in the Peach Bowl. I'm sure the Gators would be thrilled beyond words with that pairing.
With the CFP semifinals in the Rose and Sugar Bowls this year, three of the other four New Year's Six matchups are simply at-large vs. at-large. That provides the greatest opportunity to have games filled with the most highly ranked teams. The best-case scenario for that to happen is for the semifinals to be games between conference champions with either the ACC, Big Ten or SEC left out. That would put the excluded team in the Orange Bowl, which is committed to an ACC versus Big Ten/SEC/Notre Dame matchup. The Group of Five champion will likely get one of those six other at-large spots, regardless of ranking, but the remaining five would go to the highest-rated teams left in the CFP Rankings.
Below are my first set of projections for the College Football Playoff and the entire 2017-18 bowl schedule ahead of the start of the season. All times Eastern
2018 College Football Playoff
Date | Game / Loc. | Time / TV | Matchup | Prediction |
---|---|---|---|---|
Jan. 8 |
National Championship |
8 p.m. |
Title game |
Semifinal winners |
Jan. 1 |
Rose Bowl |
5 p.m. |
Semifinal |
(2) Ohio State vs. (3) USC |
Jan. 1 |
Sugar Bowl |
8:45 p.m. |
Semifinal |
(1) Alabama vs. (4) Florida State |
Selection committee bowl games
Date | Game / Loc. | Time / TV | Matchup | Prediction |
---|---|---|---|---|
Jan. 1 |
Peach |
12:30 p.m. |
At-large vs. At-large |
Florida vs. South Florida |
Dec. 30 |
Fiesta |
4 p.m. |
At-large vs. At-large |
Wisconsin vs. Washington |
Dec. 30 |
Orange |
8 p.m. |
ACC vs. Big Ten/SEC/ND |
Clemson vs Penn State |
Dec. 29 |
Cotton |
8:30 p.m. |
At-large vs. At-large |
Oklahoma State vs. LSU |
Other bowl games
Date | Game / Loc. | Time / TV | Matchup | Prediction |
---|---|---|---|---|
Jan. 1 |
Outback |
Noon |
SEC vs. Big Ten |
Georgia vs. Nebraska |
Jan. 1 |
Buffalo WW Orlando, Fla. |
1 p.m. ABC |
SEC vs. Big Ten/ACC |
Auburn vs. Miami |
Dec. 30 |
TaxSlayer |
Noon ESPN |
SEC vs. Big Ten/ACC |
Tennessee vs. Virginia Tech |
Dec. 30 |
Liberty |
12:30 p.m. |
SEC vs. Big 12 |
Arkansas vs. Kansas State |
Dec. 29 |
Belk Charlotte |
1 p.m. ESPN |
SEC vs. ACC/ND |
Mississippi State vs. Georgia Tech |
Dec. 29 |
Sun |
2 p.m. |
Pac-12 vs. ACC/ND |
Utah vs. Pittsburgh |
Dec. 29 |
Music City Nashville, Tenn. |
4:30 p.m. ESPN |
SEC vs. B1G/ACC/ND |
Kentucky vs. Northwestern |
Dec. 29 |
Arizona Tucson, Ariz. |
5:30 p.m. CBSSN |
MWC vs. Sun Belt | Wyoming vs. Idaho |
Dec. 28 |
Military Annapolis, Md. |
1:30 p.m. ESPN |
AAC vs. ACC/ND |
Navy vs. NC State |
Dec. 28 |
Camping World Orlando, Fla. |
5:15 p.m. ESPN |
Big 12 vs. ACC/ND |
Texas vs. Louisville |
Dec. 28 |
Holiday San Diego |
6 p.m. FS1 |
Big Ten vs. Pac-12 |
Michigan vs. Oregon |
Dec. 28 |
Alamo San Antonio |
9 p.m. ESPN |
Big 12 vs. Pac-12 |
Oklahoma vs. Stanford |
Dec. 27 |
Independence Shreveport, La. |
1:30 p.m. ESPN |
SEC vs. ACC/ND |
BYU* vs. Syracuse |
Dec. 27 |
Pinstripe New York |
5:15 p.m. ESPN |
Big Ten vs. ACC/ND |
Iowa vs. Notre Dame |
Dec. 27 |
Foster Farms Santa Clara, Calif. |
8:30 p.m. Fox |
Big Ten vs. Pac-12 |
Minnesota vs. UCLA |
Dec. 27 |
Texas Houston |
9 p.m. ESPN |
Big 12 vs. SEC |
TCU vs. Texas A&M |
Dec. 26 |
Quick Lane Detroit |
TBA ESPN |
Big Ten vs. ACC/ND |
Indiana vs. Old Dominion* |
Dec. 26 |
Heart of Dallas Dallas |
TBA ESPN |
Big 12 vs. CUSA |
Air Force* vs. Western Kentucky |
Dec. 26 |
Cactus Phoenix |
TBA ESPN |
Big 12 vs. Pac-12 |
West Virginia vs. Washington St. |
Dec. 24 |
Hawaii Honolulu |
8:30 p.m. ESPN |
MWC vs. AAC |
Colorado State vs. UCF |
Dec. 23 |
Birmingham Birmingham, Ala. |
Noon ESPN |
SEC vs. AAC |
Georgia Southern* vs. Memphis |
Dec. 23 |
Armed Forces Fort Worth, Texas |
3:30 p.m. |
Big Ten vs. Army |
Michigan State vs. Army |
Dec. 23 |
Dollar General Mobile, Ala. |
7 p.m. ESPN |
MAC vs. Sun Belt |
Toledo vs. Arkansas State |
Dec. 22 |
Bahamas Nassau |
12:30 p.m. ESPN |
MAC vs. Sun Belt |
Western Michigan vs. MTSU |
Dec. 22 |
Idaho Potato Boise, Idaho |
4 p.m. ESPN |
MWC vs. MAC |
Boise State vs. Northern Illinois |
Dec. 21 |
St. Petersburg St. Petersburg, Fla. |
8 p.m. |
CUSA vs. AAC |
Southern Miss vs. Tulsa |
Dec. 20 |
Frisco Frisco, Texas |
8 p.m. ESPN |
AAC vs. CUSA/MAC/Sun |
Houston vs. Ohio |
Dec. 19 |
Boca Raton Boca Raton, Fla. |
7 p.m. ESPN |
AAC vs. CUSA |
Temple vs. Marshall |
Dec. 16 |
New Orleans |
1 p.m. |
Sun vs. CUSA/MWC |
Appalachian State vs. UTSA |
Dec. 16 |
Cure |
2:30 p.m. |
AAC vs. Sun Belt |
Cincinnati vs. Troy |
Dec. 16 |
Las Vegas |
3:30 p.m. |
Pac-12 vs. MWC |
Colorado vs. San Diego State |
Dec. 16 |
New Mexico |
4:30 p.m. |
CUSA vs. MWC |
Louisiana Tech vs. New Mexico |
Dec. 16 |
Camellia |
8 p.m. |
MAC vs. Sun Belt |
Miami (OH) vs. South Alabama |