After a week away, upset alerts are back for the final run. Two undefeated top-10 teams lost to unranked opponents in Week 10, shaking up the playoff race and making every remaining matchup even more critical. And with a number of the top College Football Playoff contenders playing against sneaky good opponents, Week 11 could throw the title chase into chaos.
Each week, potential upsets are picked based on favorable matchups, context (i.e. location, rivalries, look-ahead games) or just good ol' fashion gut feel. For maximum effect, a spread of at least three points is required for consideration – the bigger, the better.
To revisit the picks from two weeks ago, UTEP covered a double-digit against FAU and Purdue beat Nebraska. However, we had a horrendous beat in the Clemson-Florida State matchup, with a Seminoles lateral in the final seconds ending with a meaningless defensive touchdown that pushed the final score to 30-20. The dang line was +9.5.
Important disclaimer: "upset" is defined first and foremost by the odds, not rankings.
No. 19 Purdue at No. 4 Ohio State
When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET | Where: Columbus, Ohio
So bookmakers, we're doing this again with a three-score line between Purdue and a top-five team? Let's see if magic can strike thrice. Ohio State's secondary has been average at best and Boilermaker star wide receiver David Bell torched Michigan State and Iowa -- both ranked in the top five at the time -- for a combined 22 catches for 457 yards and 2 TDs. The Buckeyes likely have enough firepower to avoid the upset -- and the "Spoilermakers" reputation should have them on high alert -- but Purdue has enough to cover and maybe make this one tight. ATS: Purdue, SU: Ohio State
No. 8 Oklahoma at No. 13 Baylor
When: Saturday, 12 p.m. ET | Where: Waco, Texas
Oklahoma has not played a single top-four team in the Big 12 or a defense ranked higher than 20th in SP+ on the way to its 9-0 start. That changes on Saturday as the Sooners travel to Waco to face off with the Bears. Baylor coach Dave Aranda has countered Lincoln Riley's offenses better than anyone over the past two seasons, holding the Sooners to 27.5 points and fewer than 300 yards per game. Oklahoma freshman quarterback Caleb Williams has not played major snaps against a defense that ranks higher than 66th in SP+. If Oklahoma's offense rolls, it will deservedly enter the playoff conversation, but I think the Bears have other plans. ATS: Baylor, SU: Baylor
East Carolina at Memphis
When: Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET | Where: Memphis, Tennessee
Memphis is a brand-name program in the AAC and beating SMU is enough to give the it some midseason clout. However, the Tigers have been decidedly poor for the vast majority of conference play, losing to UCF by three scores, as well as to bottom-dwellers Tulsa and Temple. East Carolina has won its last two games, took Houston to overtime, and lost to UCF by four points. The Pirates can also earn a trip to a bowl game for the first time since 2014 with a win. It may sound silly, but there's a real chance East Carolina's players actually want it more on Saturday. ATS: East Carolina, SU: East Carolina
Washington State at No. 3 Oregon
When: Saturday, 10:30 p.m. ET | Where: Eugene, Oregon
Something is happening in Pullman and it's time to talk about it. Since the calendar flipped to October, the Cougars have gone 4-1 with the lone loss coming against No. 14 BYU. Even then, Wazzu had the game tied with four minutes remaining. Oregon, meanwhile, has played with fire virtually all season. Don't count out the plucky Cougars. ATS: Washington State, SU: Oregon
Kansas at Texas
When: Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET | Where: Austin, Texas
Can Kansas actually beat Texas? It nearly beat Oklahoma earlier this season! But if head coach Lance Leipold wants a signature win, the Longhorns are there for the taking after a truly miserable month. Texas has lost four straight games for the first time since 2010. To make matters worse, senior receiver Joshua Moore quit the team and a player apparently leaked a video of defensive line coach Bo Davis giving everyone the business on the team bus. Texas is in shambles just nine games into the Steve Sarkisian tenure; a five-score spread makes little sense against anyone. ATS: Kansas, SU: Texas
Which college football picks can you make with confidence in Week 11, and which top-15 team will get stunned? Visit SportsLine to see which teams will win and cover the spread -- all from a proven computer model that has returned almost $3,500 in profit over the past five-plus seasons -- and find out.