Kansas upended the Big 12 Championship Game race by beating Oklahoma 38-33 after a rain delay. (Unfortunately, the goalposts drowned after the game.) That created a five-team tie atop the conference going into the home stretch of the season. There are two matchups among those teams this week.
It seems that many of the highly ranked teams have backloaded schedules this season. For example, Michigan's three best opponents are coming up after this week. Georgia has its three best opponents starting this week with a visit from Missouri. There could be a lot of movement in the College Football Playoff Rankings in November as a result.
Each week, I will use this space to tell you what I think are a few of the best bets heading into the weekend. I will also throw in an Upset of the Week, which will be a team that is at least a touchdown underdog that I am picking to win outright.
I will also give you picks on other games involving potential College Football Playoff teams. Any major conference team that hasn't lost twice yet is technically still a CFP candidate, but I am only going as far down as No. 13 Louisville.
Karma visited me last week, and as you might expect it was not an enjoyable visit. I was 0-3 on the regular picks, dropping the season record to 15-9. It wasn't all bad, though. The upset special hit for the second week in a row and is now 2-6 straight up and 4-4 against the spread for the season.
Odds via SportsLine consensus
Week 10 picks
Iowa at Northwestern (O/U 31)
The opening total on this game was 29.5, which was the first time in recorded betting history that a game posted a total below 30, which I like to call the Ferentz Line. People have bet that up a bit, but I am still riding Iowa unders. Besides, the game is at Wrigley Field, where the November wind always blows. Pick: Under 31
No. 15 Notre Dame (-3) at Clemson
Clemson has had a rough go of things lately. The Tigers have lost two straight and sit at 4-4 on the season. Two of their losses have come in overtime, so they have been in most of those games. The Fighting Irish are on a roll though, having dominated USC and Pitt in their last two games. The demolition of the Trojans' offense was particularly effective. I expect Notre Dame to get a fight but extend Clemson's woes. Pick: Notre Dame -3
Purdue at No. 3 Michigan (-32.5)
The 2-6 Boilermakers have struggled mightily on offense in conference play. Other than a 44-point outburst against Illinois, Purdue has not been able to top 17 points in a conference game. That number is a pipe dream this week. I will not be surprised if a well-rested Michigan posts its second straight shutout and should cover this number easily. Pick: Michigan -32.5
Upset of the Week
No. 9 Oklahoma (-6) at No. 22 Oklahoma State
It's Bedlam, baby! It may not be Bedlam for the last time -- the Big 12 title game could end up being a rematch -- but certainly for the last time in the foreseeable future. The Cowboys have gotten hot at a good time, riding a four-game winning streak that includes victories over Kansas and Kansas State. They feature the nation's leading rusher in Ollie Gordon, who is averaging 135.9 yards per game. The Sooners will try to bounce back from their first loss of the season at Kansas in which they gave up 225 yards on the ground. Look for the Cowboys to control the ball and pound their way to a tough win at home. Pick: Oklahoma State +188
Other CFP candidates
- No. 1 Ohio State at Rutgers (O/U 42.5) Pick: Under
- No. 12 Missouri at No. 2 Georgia (O/U 54.5) Pick: Over
- No. 4 Florida State (-21.5) at Pittsburgh Pick: Florida State
- No. 5 Washington (-3.5) at USC Pick: Washington
- Cal at No. 6 Oregon (-24) Pick: Oregon
- No. 23 Kansas State at No. 7 Texas (-4) Pick: Texas
- No. 14 LSU at No. 8 Alabama (O/U 56) Pick: Over
- Texas A&M at No. 10 Ole Miss (-3) Pick: Ole Miss
- No. 11 Penn State (-10) at Maryland Pick: Penn State
- Virginia Tech at No. 13 Louisville (-9.5) Pick: Louisville
Which college football picks can you make with confidence in Week 10, and which underdogs will win outright? Visit SportsLine to see which teams will win and cover the spread -- all from a proven computer model that has returned well over $2,000 in profit over the past seven-plus seasons -- and find out.