We have reached rivalry week, when state bragging rights are on the line and "little brothers" everywhere hope to play spoiler to rivals in the national title race. No. 1 Alabama will host Auburn, South Carolina will visit No. 2 Clemson and No. 5 Georgia will hope to make it back-to-back wins over Georgia Tech.

Will the national championship picture be shaken up prior to conference championship weekend or will chalk hold? Let's break down the games and make some picks.

Record straight up: 79-25 (9-2 last week)
Record against the spread: 34-49-3 (4-7 last week)
*Games without lines are not counted in the ATS record

Main courses

Auburn at No. 1 Alabama (-24.5)

  • In the trenches
  • QB vs. QB
  • Backdoor cover?

It's crazy to see the line in the Iron Bowl (3:30 p.m. on CBS, streaming live on CBSSports.com and fuboTV -- try for free) this big, but it makes sense. Auburn's offensive line is a wreck, there is no semblance of a running game and quarterback Jarrett Stidham gets happy feet faster than national championship gear sells the day after the latest Crimson Tide title. All of that plays into Alabama's strengths -- most notably the ferocious front seven and the second-best pass defense in the SEC. Auburn won't score much, but its defense is good enough to stay within the number -- probably with the help of Alabama taking its foot off the gas in the second half. Pick: Auburn (+24.5) 

Georgia Tech at No. 5 Georgia (-17)

  • Triple option trouble?
  • Maximize possessions
  • Distribute, distribute, distribute

We saw Alabama struggle with The Citadel's triple option last week, so naturally people think Georgia will do the same with Georgia Tech. Don't fall into that trap. Coach Kirby Smart blocks off time in practice during the spring and fall camp dedicated to slowing down its intra-state rival, so nothing will surprise the Bulldogs. If there's a concern, it's execution. The Bulldogs' linebacking corps is relatively inexperienced, so expect the Yellow Jackets to have enough success to keep Jake Fromm and Co. on the sideline more than they'd like. Georgia will have to maximize its possessions and make sure to find the end zone instead of kicking field goals, and the way to do that is distributing the ball all around to its bevy of playmakers. The Bulldogs will have enough success to get the win, but the Jackets will keep it closer than oddsmakers think. Pick: Georgia Tech (+17)

South Carolina at No. 2 Clemson (-26.5)

  • Big game Lawrence
  • Bentley under pressure
  • Avoid letdown

The Gamecocks have a chance to throw the college football world upside down considering most assume the Tigers will waltz into the College Football Playoff. This will be a big test for Tigers quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who will feel the pressure of a fierce rivalry for the first time prior to the postseason gauntlet. Just how much pressure depends entirely on Gamecocks Jake Bentley's ability -- or inability -- to withstand the pressure from the fierce Tigers defensive front. Bentley will have enough success to keep it within the number, but will take a ton of risks in the process, allowing the Tigers secondary to put the game away. Pick: South Carolina (+26.5)

Strong cocktails

No. 11 Florida at Florida State (+5.5)

  • Noles back?
  • Battle of front sevens
  • Points at a premium

This will be an old-school, defensive battle that will be won and lost on the line of scrimmage, which gives a big advantage to the Gators. Florida State is averaging just 3.3 yards per carry in November thanks to an offensive line that has been a problem for years regardless of coaching staff. Will the Seminoles' defense show up and slow down Gators quarterback Feleipe Franks? Enough to put this one in doubt in the second half, but not a full four quarters. Florida's defense will make a couple of plays late to put it away and move on to bowl season with a ton of momentum. Pick: Florida (-5.5)

No. 7 LSU at No. 22 Texas A&M (-2.5)

  • Weakness vs. weakness
  • New Year's Six bowl in reach
  • Kyle Field advantage

A New Year's Six bowl is within reach for LSU, but Texas A&M will knock it out before the Tigers can wrap their arms around it. This one is pretty simple -- LSU's offense is simply incapable of taking advantage of Texas A&M's defensive flaws. The Tigers have to run first to work off play-action and exploit the porous Aggie secondary. But they won't be able to thanks to the stingy Aggie run defense, which will put points at a premium. Expect Texas A&M coach Jimbo Fisher to come out with some wrinkles in the running game with Trayveon Williams and quarterback Kellen Mond, and send the home fans out happy after his inaugural season in College Station. Pick: Texas A&M (-2.5)


No. 18 Mississippi State at Ole Miss (+11)

  • Fitzgerald hot
  • Rebel hangover
  • Revenge?

The Rebels topped the Bulldogs in Starkville last year, and hope to return the favor and secure a solid spot in the SEC's bowl pecking order. They'll do it, but it won't be easy. Bulldogs quarterback Nick Fitzgerald has been hot through the air and on the ground, and will carve up this defense like an electric knife through a full smoked turkey. Jordan Ta'amu will try to do the same against the Bulldogs, but won't have as much time and will force things a few too many times. Expect a wild, high-scoring affair that comes down to the final frame. Give me Ole Miss to cover, but Mississippi State to take back state bragging rights. Pick: Ole Miss (+11)

No. 15 Kentucky at Louisville (+17)

  • Finish strong
  • Cards are a mess
  • Defense wins ... rivalries?

The Cardinals have been a hot mess all year, and Kentucky will send them into an offseason coaching search in a violent way. The Wildcats defense will be all over the place, linebacker Josh Allen will finish off his final season in Lexington with a bang and Benny Snell will run his way to a blowout that will be over by halftime. Lay the points, and even more if you can. Pick: Kentucky (-17)

Side dishes

Arkansas at Missouri (-23)

  • Hogs tapped out
  • Lock out with a bang
  • Florida bowl?

Missouri has a chance to push its record to 8-4 and send Drew Lock into bowl season with a bang, and Arkansas is the perfect opponent for the Tigers to take a victory lap around. The Hogs defense has been a wreck all year, Lock is on fire after carving up Tennessee last week and nobody in the secondary can hang with Mizzou's wide receivers. This line is big for a reason -- the matchups are there for the Tigers to exploit for a full 60 minutes. Pick: Missouri (-23)

Tennessee at Vanderbilt (-3.5)

  • Bowl bid on the line
  • Vandy hot
  • Big game for Pruitt

It'll be win-or-go-home in Nashville, with the winner of this game securing a bowl bid and the loser falling to 5-7. The Commodores are riding high after topping Ole Miss in overtime, and the Vols are fresh off a beatdown administered by Missouri. Jarrett Guarantano will take advantage of the Vandy secondary, lead his team to a big win and give first-year coach Jeremy Pruitt 15 much-needed bowl practices to build his program back from the Butch Jones era (error). Pick: Tennessee (+3.5)

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