Churchill Downs has been the home of the Kentucky Derby since the race's inception in 1875 and on Saturday, it will host the 150th Run for the Roses. The 2024 Kentucky Derby will feature a 20-horse field, and positioning could be more important than ever in a race where several 2024 Kentucky Derby horses appear to have similar running styles. Fierceness has won two of his last three starts and is the 5-2 favorite according to the latest 2024 Kentucky Derby odds. However, Fierceness will break from post No. 17 on Saturday, the only spot to never produce a champion at the Kentucky Derby.
Should you fade Fierceness with your 2024 Kentucky Derby predictions, or will finally break the dreaded curse? The 2024 Kentucky Derby post time is 6:57 p.m. ET. Before making any 2024 Kentucky Derby picks, be sure to see the horse racing predictions and futures bets from SportsLine's elite horse racing expert Jody Demling.
A fixture in the horse racing world who has been writing about, talking about and betting on races for years, Demling enters the 2024 Kentucky Derby having nailed the winner of the Belmont Stakes four of the last six years, including an exacta in 2022 with Mo Donegal and Nest. He also called Flightline's win at the Breeders' Cup Classic in November of that year.
Demling is at his best in the biggest horse races in the world like the Kentucky Derby 2024. In fact, he has hit 10 of the last 15 Derby-Oaks doubles at Churchill Downs. That means he held a ticket with the winners of both races all but five times in the last 15 years. He's also called 10 of the last 19 Preakness winners, including nailing his Preakness winner, exacta and superfecta picks in 2023, keenly understanding when the Kentucky Derby winner was poised for victory or a massive upset. Anyone who has followed him is up huge.
Now, with the 2024 Kentucky Derby odds already on the board, Demling is sharing his picks and 2024 Kentucky Derby predictions over at SportsLine. Go here to see them.
Top 2024 Kentucky Derby predictions
One of Demling's surprising 2024 Kentucky Derby picks: He is fading Fierceness, even though he's the top favorite and just won the Florida Derby. Fierceness has shown flashes of greatness, but he's been inconsistent throughout his racing career. He's won two of his last four starts, but he's finished third and seventh in the other two races.
He's never won back-to-back races and the odds are stacked against him crossing the finish line first at Churchill Downs. That's because Fierceness will break from post No. 17, the only post to have never produced a Kentucky Derby winner. Demling knows Fierceness has the talent to win on Saturday, but his inconsistency cannot be overlooked, especially since he has the shortest odds in the 2024 Kentucky Derby field. See which other 2024 Kentucky Derby horses to avoid at SportsLine.
Another stunner: Demling is high on Dornoch, even though he's a 20-1 longshot. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Dornoch drew post No. 1 for Saturday's race, which hasn't produced a winner since Ferdinand in 1986. However, Dornoch has the speed necessary to set the pace in the early going and the stamina to compete down the stretch.
Dornoch has won three of his last four starts, which includes a victory at the Remsen Stakes. He posted a 98-speed figure in that race, which ran at 1 1/8 miles. "Trainer Danny Gargan changed up his race tactics and tried to rate him in the Blue Grass and he was fourth," Demling told SportsLine. "He'll use his speed this time in the No. 1 post position." See which other horses to back at SportsLine.
How to make 2024 Kentucky Derby picks, bets
Demling is especially high on an epic double-digit longshot who "keeps getting better and better." Demling is sharing which horse it is, along with his entire projected 2024 Kentucky Derby leaderboard, over at SportsLine.
Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2024, and which double-digit longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2024 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Demling's picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who nailed 10 Derby-Oaks doubles.
2024 Kentucky Derby odds, futures
| Prg # | Horse | Odds | Projection |
| 1 | Dornoch | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 2 | Sierra Leone | 3-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 3 | Mystik Dan | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 4 | Catching Freedom | 8-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 5 | Catalytic | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 6 | Just Steel | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 7 | Honor Marie | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 8 | Just a Touch | 10-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 9 | Encino | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 10 | T O Password (JPN) | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 11 | Forever Young (JPN) | 10-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 12 | Track Phantom | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 13 | West Saratoga | 50-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 14 | Endlessly | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 15 | Domestic Product | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 16 | Grand Mo the First | 50-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 17 | Fierceness | 5-2 | SEE PICKS |
| 18 | Stronghold | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 19 | Resilience | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 20 | Society Man | 50-1 | SEE PICKS |
