Bumped from the Kentucky Derby two weeks ago as the 21st horse in the 20-horse field, Mugatu was immediately rerouted to Baltimore and will make his Triple Crown debut in the Preakness Stakes. But this modestly bred $14,000 purchase faces a daunting task if he hopes to pull off one of the most shocking upsets in Preakness history.
1 Mugatu (20-1)
- Trainer Jeff Engler
- Jockey Joe Bravo
- Last race Fifth in the Blue Grass Stakes by 7½ lengths
- Career record 12 starts: 1 win, 1 second, 3 thirds
- Career earnings $80,570
- Best career Beyer Speed Figure 87 (2024 Blue Grass Stakes)
- Sire Blofeld
What to know about Mugatu
In 148 previous editions of the Preakness Stakes, the biggest longshot winner remains Master Derby, who was 23-1 when he crossed the finish line in 1975. There's a chance that, when the starting gate opens on Saturday, Mugatu (20-1 on the morning line) will leave as an even bigger longshot.
Now whether Mugatu, who was purchased for the relatively paltry sum of $14,000 a year ago, can match Master Derby's Preakness victory is another story entirely. In 12 previous starts, he has only one win, in a maiden race on the Gulfstream Park synthetic surface in November at a mile and 70 yards. He has finished off-the-board more times (seven) than he has finished on it (five). And he has never hit the board in three starts on the dirt, losing by a combined 33½ lengths in those races.
Fans of Mugatu will like that the colt is coming off his fastest career race according to the Beyer Speed Figures, an 87 in the Blue Grass Stakes. But even that effort was only good enough to finish fifth, more than seven lengths behind the winner, Sierra Leone. And that career-high Beyer is better than only one horse's in the field, Uncle Heavy (84). The speed figures say Mugatu is just too slow to compete, much less win.
On Saturday he needs an epic pace meltdown up front, a clean trip from the No. 1 post and a career-best performance by leaps and bounds, and even that may not be good enough to sniff the board.
Post draw analysis
The No. 1 post position means very little to this deep closer whose late running style is unaffected by where he leaves the starting gate. In fact, according to the Daily Racing Form, the No. 1 post began the Pimlico meet 5-for-17 in dirt routes (29%). Still Mugatu, who went off at 181-1 odds in the Blue Grass Stakes, is the odds-on favorite to leave the starting gate as the biggest longest in the race.
