Dismissed as an 18-1 longshot in the Kentucky Derby two weeks ago, Mystik Dan got a rail-skimming, ground-saving trip to win the Run for the Roses by a desperate nose in a three-way photo finish. On Saturday he will attempt to win the second leg of the Triple Crown in Baltimore, and the Mystik Dan doubters already are back out in full force, dismissing his chances to win yet again.
5 Mystik Dan (5-2)
- Trainer Ken McPeek
- Jockey Brian Hernandez Jr.
- Last race First in the Kentucky Derby by a nose
- Career record 7 starts: 3 wins, 1 second, 1 third
- Career earnings $3,741,360
- Best career Beyer Speed Figure 101 (2024 Southwest Stakes)
- Sire Goldencents
What to know about Mystik Dan
Mystik Dan had not even reached the winner's circle at Churchill Downs two weeks ago when his doubters started throwing shade on his Kentucky Derby win. "He only won because he got a perfect trip," the chorus claimed. Or, "Both Sierra Leone and Forever Young ran better races than Mystik Dan."
Let this be clear: Mystik Dan's Derby victory was no fluke. According to the Beyer Speed Figures, he entered the race as the fastest horse not named Fierceness (who faded to 15th). And Thoro-Graph, another speed figure maker, ranked Mystik Dan in the tier of win contenders right behind Fierceness. He was the epitome of a live longshot.
Did Mystik Dan benefit in the Derby from a rail-skimming, ground-saving trip? Absolutely. But that was foreseeable from the moment he drew the No. 3 post. He was also right behind a fast pace in the Derby and was the only horse in the top six at the half-mile pole to finish better than seventh.
The question with Mystik Dan in the Derby was never the trip; it was whether he was good enough. And he was.
Now, entering the Preakness Stakes, the question is whether he can repeat that performance on two week's rest, and his history suggests that will be a problem. In November, after he broke his maiden at Churchill Downs by almost eight lengths, trainer Ken McPeek entered Mystik Dan in a first-level allowance race two weeks later at Churchill, and the colt was beaten by eight lengths, finishing fifth in an 11-horse field. McPeek has repeatedly said that he ran Mystik Dan back too quickly that day.
McPeek seemingly learned his lesson. After Mystik Dan's eight-length romp in the Southwest Stakes on Feb. 3, the trainer chose not to run the colt back in the Rebel Stakes three weeks later, opting instead to rest and train up to the March 30 Arkansas Derby.
With the Preakness two weeks after the Kentucky Derby, McPeek's only option to give Mystik Dan rest would require skipping the second leg of the Triple Crown, which the trainer considered (though how seriously is uncertain) before committing to the race on Saturday.
The horse is not scheduled to work out before the Preakness, so the public won't be able to get a hint of how he's doing outside out some light gallops. McPeek has run three of his Derby horses back in the Preakness on two weeks rest, and his best finish was third with Creative Minister in 2022. (Harlan's Holiday ran fourth in 2002; Tejano Run ran ninth in 1995.)
With his Derby win, Mystik Dan proved that his win in the Southwest Stakes was more than just a slop-aided victory, but if Pimlico turns into a slopfest on Saturday, his connections won't complain.
Post draw analysis
After skimming the rail and saving ground in the Kentucky Derby from post No. 3, Mystik Dan drew the No. 5 post for the Preakness. And based on the three horses inside him, all deep closers, Mystik Dan and jockey Brian Hernandez are poised to get another inside trip along the rail. The difference this time will be that the other jockeys know Hernandez's m.o. and will likely hug the rail, forcing Mystik Dan to go around.
If the Kentucky Derby effort did not take too much out of him -- a big if -- he should again be at the top of the stretch with a big chance.
