NASCAR playoff picture, title odds ahead of final regular-season race at Richmond

The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series playoffs are just one race away and so far only 13 drivers have clinched a spot. Will the current drivers in on merit be able to hold on, or will we have a new winner that takes the final spot?

Here is a look at where things stand heading into the upcoming race at Richmond Raceway.

The winners

Martin Truex Jr.: The No. 78 clinched the 2017 regular-season title at Darlington and added two more stage wins as well. Truex will have 57 playoff points at least for each of the rounds (except Miami) thanks to his four race wins, 17 stage triumphs and 15-point bonus from winning the regular-season crown.

Kyle Busch: You'd have to imagine that given Truex's huge lead already he will most likely secure a spot in the final round when the series heads to Homestead in November. That leaves one more spot for drivers like Busch, Kyle Larson, Jimmie Johnson, Denny Hamlin and Brad Keselowski to fill. Busch is the front-runner to challenge Truex with two race wins and the second most green-and-white checkered flags (10).

Kyle Larson: Larson is third in playoff points with 18 behind Truex and Busch. His consistency has been incredible, racking up a series-leading 17 top-10 finishes in addition to 10 top-fives and four poles and three wins. The No. 42 will definitely be in the mix come November.

Jimmie Johnson: The seven-time NASCAR champion has been a non-factor since winning at Dover in June. Johnson has failed to finish inside the top-10 in three months, but if anyone knows how to race the championship circuit it's him. He hasn't been nearly as bad over the past few weeks, finishing 11th at Bristol and 12th at Darlington.

Brad Keselowski: The No. 2 posted a mediocre 15th-place finish at Darlington, but at this point he's in better shape than most. The 2012 champ has the fifth-most playoff points and can add more at Richmond, a track where he finished second in April and won in 2014.

Denny Hamlin: With a win at Darlington, Hamlin has solidified himself as a serious title contender. The No. 11 is no stranger to Richmond either. Over 22 starts he has three wins there and an average finish inside the top 10. The final regular-season race will be an opportunity for Hamlin to add some more stage points and build off momentum.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.: Stenhouse had a rough go of things at Darlington but is poised to be seventh when the playoffs begin. We're not overly convinced he can get anything going at Richmond, however, because he has an average finish of 20.22 in nine career starts. On the positive end for Stenhouse, he finished fourth there in April.

Ryan Blaney: The No. 21 has been brutal since his early success at Pocono, especially with his recent 31st-place finish at Darlington. That being said, he has eight playoff points to go along with three stage wins this season.

Kevin Harvick: For as well as Harvick has run this season, he isn't necessarily getting much of an advantage once the playoffs start. Before stage racing, Harvick would be in the discussion as a main title contender, but with just three stage victories and one race win, he needs to be almost flawless to move on.

Kurt Busch: For a second it seemed like Kurt was going to win his second race of the season at Darlington, but he finished third behind his brother Kyle. As a veteran without a job next season, perhaps the Daytona 500 winner is rising to the occasion ahead of the playoffs.

Ryan Newman: An early victory at Phoenix locked Newman into the NASCAR playoff picture, and he has run consistently toward the top since. Newman has added a sneaky 10 top-10 finishes, including another at Darlington.

Austin Dillon: You might recall Dillon taking the No. 3 car back to Victory Lane at his hometown track, Charlotte. Dillon hasn't been all that impressive in stage racing, but he was able to log a fourth-place finish at Darlington. He will hope to build off that momentum and snag a few more stage points at Richmond.

Kasey Kahne: There is no lack of motivation for the No. 5 driver after winning the Brickyard 400 and clinching a spot in the playoffs. It's been more than 12 years since Kahne won at Richmond in 2005, but maybe he can garner some momentum with a solid run this weekend.

In on merit (for now)

Chase Elliott: Just because he's currently the first driver in on merit DOES NOT by guarantee Elliott a spot. Jamie McMurray, Matt Kenseth and he are separated by no more than three regular-season points and any of the three can be bumped with a poor start coupled with a new winner at Richmond. That being said, Elliott hasn't run well at the track over four starts with an average finish of 17.75. Another one of those could cost him a playoff spot.

Matt Kenseth: Despite being one of the last drivers in on merit, Kenseth could be the first of the winless drivers in after next weekend or perhaps earn a win himself. He has two victories at Richmond, including a checkered flag as recently as 2015. In April's race, Kenseth led 164 laps after starting on the pole before inevitably suffering a 23rd-place finish. In translation, he is in the best shape.

Jamie McMurray: Just three points behind Elliott is McMurray, and believe it or not he has a worse average finish than the No. 24 over the course of his career at Richmond. In 29 races, McMurray averaged a 19.17 finish, but since 2014 he has averaged inside the top 10. The No. 1 has never won here.

On the bubble

Clint Bowyer: 91 points behind McMurray, Bowyer is one of the only drivers with any sort of chance to earn a spot. To do so, there would need to be a miserable blunder by one or two of the drivers currently in, plus a top-five performance from the No. 14. The bad news is that Bowyer finished last at Darlington. The good news is that he has won two races at Richmond and averages a 12.87 finish there. While a long shot, it's not as impossible as it may seem for Bowyer to make it.

The Field: From 18th-place Erik Jones, to 36th-place Jeffrey Earnhardt, it's win and you're in for the rest of the crew. Ironically, Richmond is where all the troubles for Joey Logano began after his checkered flag became encumbered but another victory would immediately send the 2016 runner-up back into the title pursuit. All eyes will be on Dale Earnhardt Jr. as well, especially with a suspension looming for crew chief Greg Ives. It's been more than 10 years since Junior's last win at Richmond, but he has a knack for making memories.

2017 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series playoff points

POSITION	DRIVER	CAR #	PLAYOFF POINTS	STAGE WINS	RACE WINS
1.	Martin Truex Jr.	78	37	17	4
2.	Kyle Busch	18	20	10	2
3.	Kyle Larson	42	18	3	3
4.	Jimmie Johnson	48	16	1	3
5.	Brad Keselowski	2	14	4	2
6.	Denny Hamlin	11	12	2	2
7.	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	17	10	0	2
8.	Ryan Blaney	21	8	3	1
9.	Kevin Harvick	4	8	3	1
10.	Kurt Busch	41	5	0	1
11.	Ryan Newman	31	5	0	1
12.	Austin Dillon	3	5	0	1
13.	Kasey Kahne	5	5	0	1
14.	Matt Kenseth	20	3	3	0
15.	Chase Elliott	24	2	2	0
16.	Clint Bowyer	14	1	1	0
17.	Daniel Suarez	19	1	1	0
18.	Joey Logano	22	1	1	1