We're deep into the 2015-16 season. With the trade deadline passed, teams are either looking for ping pong balls in the lottery or making a run down the stretch to reach the playoffs. We have a pretty good idea of which rookies have impressed us and which rookies are going to produce well in the future at this point in the season. As soon as the rookies hit the court in the first days of the NBA season, we're constantly measuring them against each other and checking to see if executives made the correct call in drafting them.
With the way the draft shook out back in late June, did teams make the right call? Or based on what we've seen these young guys do, do we think it could have and should have gone another way? Just for fun, let's take a look at how the lottery might have gone down if we knew then what we know now.
How did they do? The Wolves selecting Karl-Anthony Towns is pretty hard to argue against. Towns isn't just putting up the best stat lines for the rookies every night. He's putting up stat lines that are barely matched in the history of the game. His per 100-possession averages of 28 points, 17 rebounds, and three blocks make him the only rookie not named Shaquille O'Neal to ever do this. Compare him with rookie Tim Duncan's rookie campaign and his numbers are actually about the same. Compare his season with Hakeem Olajuwon's and his numbers are actually a bit better. However you want to measure what Towns is doing this season, and there isn't much historical precedent for what he's doing.
Redraft Selection: We don't have to get cute here and pretend there is another choice. You can try to be different and say the Wolves have to consider Kristaps Porzingis in this spot. That's not a knock on Porzingis. He looks like he's going to be a star and All-NBA level player in this league. Towns just projects to be a historic talent so far. Have to go with that over anybody else and not think twice about it.
How did they do? You'll have to ask Byron Scott how the Lakers did with D'Angelo Russell, or maybe nobody should ask him about the rookie guard. His per 36 minutes numbers are pretty solid at 16.2 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 4.4 assists. His shooting percentages 41.5/33.2/69.9 are not ideal. The free throw shooting needs to come way up and the field goal percentage would be improved if 40 percent of his shots weren't 3-pointers. But other than that, Russell shows flashes of being a pretty special playmaker that can go on scoring binges. He just doesn't get much consistency with his minutes, coaching, or even communication thanks to Byron. Cool tank job the Lakers have going here.
Redraft Selection: Porzingis would be the selection here. I don't think Russell is a bad pick and I think he'll still end up being capable of cultivating an All-Star caliber career. You could also argue that a Julius Randle pairing with Porzingis has plenty of problems. I agree with that. You then move Randle in a trade for another piece that works and keep Porzingis. It's possible the Latvian big man can grow into a center, but even if he's "just a power forward" for the team moving forward, that's a piece you can build your team around. Although, I shudder at the thought of what Scott might say about Porzingis if he were his coach.
How did they do? Most years, having the rookie with the highest scoring average would ensure that the Rookie of the Year is on your team. That's probably not the case for the Sixers and Jahlil Okafor this season. Okafor's 17.1 points per game is now tied with Towns, and Okafor doesn't bring about the rest of the historical impact or the defensive impact that you get with Towns. He's still been a pretty tough cover for a lot of NBA defenses. His field goal percentage is a bit below 50 percent, which is low, but him not being a disaster shooting free throws (68.2 percent now, 51 percent in college) is a big bonus for the Sixers. He's been a bit of a disappointing rebounder (8.7 per 36 minutes), but you can see the potential for a decade of double-doubles.
Redraft Selection: While I don't think he's been the third best rookie in this class and I'm not as convinced he'll be a top 3 player from this draft when it's all said and done as I was prior to the draft, I still like the idea of Russell as the lead guard for whatever Sam Hinkie is trying to construct. So much of Russell's lack of star power early seems driven by Byron damaging his confidence. Under Brett Brown, he'd be allowed to flourish while learning what does and doesn't work. I'm not sure you can even count on the pairing of Nerlens Noel and Joel Embiid playing together, but the Sixers desperately need competent guards to be competitive and Russell would give them that right away.
How did they do? The Knicks made out like bandits with their draft selection of Kristaps Porzingis. While he might not be on the level of consistency with what Towns is doing historically, Porzingis is still putting up his own impressive historical measurements. His per 100-possession numbers are 25.3 points, 13.9 rebounds, and 3.5 blocks. That's something only David Robinson, Shaquille O'Neal, Hakeem Olajuwon, and Alonzo Mourning have done as rookies. He's taken the NBA by storm by flashing a pretty good outside shot, an affinity for tip-dunking over opponents, and he's not afraid to take big shots. Porzingis has been a perfect scenario for the Knicks picking at No. 4 and history will probably wonder why he dropped that low. There was a reason at the time, but it will look worse with each passing season.
Redraft Selection: Unfortunately for the Knicks in this scenario, Porzingis is off the redraft board. So we have to find the next best thing for them and that definitely is Okafor. Maybe this doesn't wow the Knicks fans because they love what they have in Porzingis, but thinking about him in the style of play Phil Jackson wants on offense makes sense. I've been a bit shocked at how few potential assists (2.7) Okafor gets. His passing was supposed to translate nicely to the NBA, but he's also on a team full of bad shooters. Put him in the Triangle Offense and you could see him reading and whipping passes around to scorers and shooters. I'm so sorry this exercise took Porzingis away from you guys, though.
How did they do? I ... don't really know. So far, Scott Skiles has been slow to roll out the minutes for Mario Hezonja, who has all of the bravado possible for a rookie to possess. His shooting percentages of 43.0/36.3/94.4 are more than acceptable, but finding a comfort zone with playing him on defense hasn't been there yet. He's playing just 15.2 minutes per game on the season, but over the last nine games, Skiles is starting to trust him more. He's played 22.6 minutes per game during this nine-game stretch and he's putting in about 15 points per 36 minutes in that time. Hezonja can be a real weapon for the Magic but that's probably not happening until at least next season.
Redraft Selection: Devin Booker seems like the fit here. The Magic really rely on 3-point shooting and I think you can survive stretches pairing Victor Oladipo with Booker on the wings. When Orlando shoots 35 percent (about league average) from downtown or better this season, they're 15-13. When they're below 35 percent from deep, they're just 8-16. I'm not sure what else Booker can do besides shoot from outside and score, but he's been a 40.3 percent 3-point shooter so far as a rookie and that is something the Magic desperately need. You would just need Skiles to trust him with minutes.
How did they do? Is it possible that a rookie could be the Kings' best defensive player? Well, if you looked at the Kings' confusing defensive plan most nights, that wouldn't seem like a high bar for Willie Cauley-Stein to clear. Even with those low defensive standards, Cauley-Stein is a huge impact defender and someone who looks to be pretty competent on the offensive end of the floor. He's flashed a bit of a mid-range jumper and scores really well around the rim. He also protects the rim quite well for a rookie, allowing just 48.9 percent. He's missed some on the court but it wasn't anything serious. Cauley-Stein appears to be as much of a terror around the rim as advertised.
Redraft Selection: I think the Kings need all of the defensive help they can get and I like the pairing with WCS and DeMarcus Cousins. Together, the team is a couple of points better defensively, and you can really see a nice chemistry between the two. The Kings don't need a drastic change in the draft process based on where they were picking. So much of this league is about defending the pick-and-roll and he looks like he'll be very good at it one day. He could be a Tyson Chandler on the championship Mavs type of big man.
How did they do? Emmanuel Mudiay missed some time with an ankle injury, and his shot-making abilities are really bad. He's shooting 34.0/27.2/61.6 on the season, which makes Ricky Rubio look like... well, a slightly better shooter from the field and 3-point line. Where you see something special from Mudiay is his defensive potential and his playmaking ability on offense. He averages over 10 potential assists per game and racks up 5.9 actual assists every night. His numbers will look very ugly after his rookie season because of the shooting and turnovers, but his size and passing at the point guard give him a bright future.
Redraft Selection: They're going to keep Mudiay in this redraft. With Jusuf Nurkic, Joffrey Lauvergne, and Nikola Jokic, I'm not sure how Myles Turner would fit into their plans. He's probably going to be better than Nurkic and Jokic long-term, but it's a little hard to say how that whole rotation would work. Mudiay, however, could develop into a pretty special point guard under Michael Malone.
How did they do? I like Stanley Johnson a lot for the Pistons. His shot has struggled a lot throughout his rookie campaign. He's under 40 percent from the field and he's barely over 30 percent from 3-point range. He was branded as much more of a scorer coming out of Arizona but Stan Van Gundy hasn't seemed to find many ways to get him to show that. Where Johnson does make it on the court for SVG is with his defense. He's been able to cover the wing position and does a good job making his assignments work for their points. It feels like he can do a lot more, but all of that should come in due time. Perhaps a Michael Kidd-Gilchrist approach to shot selection would help him out a lot.
Redraft Selection: I know Van Gundy went out and got Ersan Ilyasova to go with Anthony Tolliver as the stretch-4's but I love the idea of the Pistons going with Trey Lyles here. Lyles cut his teeth over the months of December and January with the Utah Jazz by filling in for the absences of Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors. At times, Lyles looked lost but he definitely found his way. His ability to intelligently stretch the floor, knock down open jumpers, move the ball, and defend his position make him a perfect Van Gundy stretch 4. Myles Turner is still falling in this draft (should he have gone to the Magic at 5 now that I think about it?), but you're not putting him next to Andre Drummond here.
How did they do? I will admit I was not the biggest Frank Kaminsky fan when he was coming out of Wisconsin and I've been pleasantly surprised with how well he's adapted to the NBA game. He's a better defender than I thought he'd be, especially within Steve Clifford's team concept, and his offensive instincts are pretty good. Surprisingly, his shot hasn't come around yet and he's performing quite poorly in getting bucket (40.1/32.6/73.5), but you expect him to eventually find the comfort in knocking down those shots. His form on his jumper is very good and there's no reason to think he won't be able to stretch the floor. The big key for him will be finishing around the rim. He's 55.8 percent within three feet and that's just not going to cut it long-term.
Redraft Selection: OK, now Myles Turner is going in this draft. I think you can pair him alongside a healthy Al Jefferson, and I think eventually you'd feel quite comfortable with him as the big man of the future. Turner's shot blocking and defensive rotations would be a nice addition to what Clifford wants to do defensively. His mid-range jumper is very good and I think Clifford would eventually extend Turner out to the 3-point line. A defensive core of Turner, Nicolas Batum, and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist moving forward would be pretty special.
10. Miami Heat
How did they do? The Miami Heat love what they have in Justise Winslow and he's been a very nice role player for them as a rookie. He already looks to be shaping into becoming an elite defender. He rotates well, he defends on an island well, and his intelligence with which spots to move to on the floor on both ends is pretty special. The Heat are almost six points per 100 possessions better defensively with Winslow on the floor. He's a smart player on offense but he has a limited skill set right now. He rebounds really well for his position and as he gets more comfortable with the ball, you can expect him to attack the basket constantly.
Redraft Selection: The Heat keep Winslow in the redraft, although I was pretty tempted to throw Hezonja into the mix in Miami. I think you need a patient organization with Winslow, despite all of his good qualities, because his jumper is pretty broken. The motion has this weird positioning awkwardly in front of his body that needs to be altered. The Heat have a good development process to put him to work and see if they can turn him into a shooter. If they can, he may become a top 5 player from this draft class. If not, he's still capable of becoming a world class defender.
11. Indiana Pacers
How did they do? Myles Turner has only played in 31 games, he's only started eight games, and he's playing just 20.3 minutes each night. He still feels like one of the steals of this draft. Turner missed 21 straight games with a fractured thumb. In his past 13 games, Turner has made a huge name for himself. He's averaging 15.5 points, 7.1 rebounds, and 2.2 blocks in 29.1 minutes per night during this stretch of games. You'd like him to be a better rebounder, but his scoring and shot-blocking abilities are legit. He's the type of versatile big man the Pacers could only dream of when they had Roy Hibbert protecting the rim and not much else. Turner has been a brilliant pick by Indiana.
Redraft Selection: Stanley Johnson feels like a great fit here. With Turner off the board going to Charlotte, you could reach for a big man and hope he fits in with what Frank Vogel wants to do inside, or you can take Johnson and pair him with Paul George. Like I said earlier, Johnson is supposed to be a much better scorer than what he's shown and in this style of play where he doesn't have to be as careful under Vogel as he does under Van Gundy, we can see some of that scoring emerge. More importantly, I think he's strong enough to play against some 4's in the league and that allows Paul George the freedom to be versatile this season.
12. Utah Jazz
How did they do? The Jazz did quite well for themselves. I mentioned earlier how much Lyles has improved since the start of the season but there was an 11-game stretch in January in which he was scoring double digits a night and shooting over 50 percent from the field and from 3-point range. The way he moves without the ball and spaces the floor is night and day from his first month of the season. Then, he looked like a lost puppy trying to figure out where to be. Now, he's moving into the seams of the defense almost undetected before putting them in a compromising position. Lyles is probably their third big man of the future and they feel completely comfortable with where his development is and trusting him with big stretches.
Redraft Selection: Bobby Portis is moving way up in this draft and going to the Jazz at No. 12. Lyles is off the board in this scenario and anybody who watches Portis for even five minutes is dumbfounded at how he fell all the way to the Chicago Bulls with the 22nd pick. His midrange jumper looks more comfortable than his 3-point shot, but everything else about Portis is right. He's a double-double machine per 36 minutes and he dominates scoring around the basket. You could play him next to either Gobert or Favors. He could be one of the anchors for the Jazz's second unit. He'd provide the insane energy you expect from him. His reactions coupled with the sideline reactions of Quin Snyder would make them the most .gif-able coach-rookie combination in the NBA.
13. Phoenix Suns
How did they do? After all of the turmoil that has happened and continues to happen in Phoenix, the Devin Booker pick is the one bright spot. It took a while for some of this to surface into bigger minutes for Booker. But now that the Suns have zero to play for and can just focus on getting this rookie some shots, he's in a good situation for developing. He's still not much of an attacker off the dribble when the defense is honed in on him, but he's gone from looking like a guy who doesn't have good passing instincts to someone seeing the floor quite well. Over his last 11 games, he's dishing out four assists per night. And yes, the shooting is pretty special. Booker has about the same 3-point rate as rookie Stephen Curry and is just 3.4 percent lower than the MVP's accuracy that season
Redraft Selection: Let's put Hezonja in Phoenix and see what he can do. It's not the best environment for him to be in mentally. He wouldn't have a coach anymore and he'd have to dodge glum behavior that could potentially turn into Markieff Morris choking him (though he's gone now). But he'd have the freedom to test out his own offensive game. He'd be allowed to fire from deep. He'd be allowed to attack with aerial assaults at the rim. He'd be able to be the brash, young player who believes he can take over the world. Eventually, it would fall apart because it's still Robert Sarver's team, but imagine the fun we could see with a healthy Eric Bledsoe and Hezonja.
How did they do? While there are plenty of problems with PER as a measurement tool, it does a decent job of telling the story on how efficient a player has been. So far this season, Cameron Payne has the fifth highest PER among rookies. Only Towns, Jokic, Porzingis, and Turner are higher. His minutes have been sporadic, but over his last 22 games, he's playing 16.4 minutes, scoring 7.7 points, and dishing out 2.5 assists. That's not bad for a rookie backup point guard who has improved so much early on that the Thunder now have to start playing him. His 3-point shot is hitting 41.3 percent of the time and his turnover rate is impressively low (10.3 percent).
Redraft Selection: I thought about swapping point guards here and throwing Jerian Grant into this slot. I also thought about putting Kelly Oubre here and seeing if he could solve the Thunder's problem on the wing next to Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. But I'm sticking with Payne. He could be an important rotation guy for the Thunder by the time the playoffs come around. You can play him with Westbrook too and provide a bit of spacing (although the defense is tough that way). Payne was the right call for OKC on draft night and he remains that right call to this day.
